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evanpw

1,598 karma · joined April 10, 2013

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evanpw··on Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet
Every time you buy a stock, someone sold it to you, so flow of money into the market isn't something that's easy to define in a meaningful way. And even if a lot of the invested capital is passive (maybe half of the US stock market), almost none of the trading is, and that's what determines prices.
evanpw··on Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet
I agree with your first part, but not the second. Even if there's a future where the total market has zero (or negative) return on average in the long term, it doesn't mean that it's any easier to find the temporary exceptions. And lower volatility is still good even if everything has zero expected return, so diversification still helps.
evanpw··on Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet
The human lifespan is too short to distinguish between luck and skill for most low frequency traders. You'd have to see dozens of potential pandemics as severe as this one to know if you were "right". But it's empirically true that the average active trader underperforms the market. I build short-term trading strategies at my day job, but at home I just buy and hold some boring vanilla index funds. One nice thing about higher-frequency trading is that you have enough statistical power to quickly see lots of "obvious" ideas fail miserably. It teaches humility.
evanpw··on Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet
Gold is a single concentrated bet, not really comparable to a stock-market index, and the Nikkei shows why it's important to diversify outside of your home country. For almost everyone, "buy the global market portfolio and forget about it" is the right advice.
evanpw··on Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet
Single-stock volatility halts happen in either direction, but market-wide circuit breakers only happen on down moves.
evanpw··on Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet
Nope, trading stops everywhere. Even Canada stops trading when the US has a market-wide halt.
evanpw··on Programming trick questions
It's not good enough to test only the people who have already passed a similar test. It's easy to get a nonsense negative correlation, like more experienced people performing worse in their job, because the people with less experience that nonetheless got hired must have had some other factor that made up for it. That can result in a negative correlation in the already-hired pool even if there's a positive correlation in the potential-hire pool.

This is the same problem you see with people claiming that GPA or GRE scores have no or negative correlation with academic success.

evanpw··on Peter Norvig's Economic Simulation (2018)
You'll only pay $X for a good if it's worth at least $X to you, so in the absence of perfect price discrimination, that trade is also positive-sum: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_surplus#Consumer_surp...
evanpw··on Morgan Stanley to Buy E-Trade for $13B
Super illegal if true: https://www.finra.org/contact-finra/whistleblower
evanpw··on Suspicious Discontinuities
Losing benefits as you make more money has the same effect as being taxed on that marginal income.
evanpw··on Morgan Stanley to Buy E-Trade for $13B
You don't want the information. You want the order, so that you can be the other side of the trade. As long as the order arrival isn't too correlated with price movements, the market maker can buy a little above the bid price and sell a little below the ask price and make some fraction of a cent on each share, on average.
evanpw··on Morgan Stanley to Buy E-Trade for $13B
Limit orders can only execute at the limit price or better. Are you saying that you were getting better prices than you expected, or am I completely misreading this?
evanpw··on Move, simply
That workaround is also problematic, because move constructors are supposed to be noexcept, but 'new' can throw std::bad_alloc. So you either have to lie to the compiler and tell it that your move constructor is noexcept (maybe reasonable in this case since a bad allocation will then call std::terminate), or else you have bad consequences like std::vector silently copying your object instead of moving it.
evanpw··on German banks are hoarding so many euros they need more vaults
Electronically, in an account at the Federal Reserve
evanpw··on Project Euler 001 the Hard Way
This argument comes up all the time, and the answer is that big-O notation is very general, and only makes sense relative to a particular computation model. For example, you may describe a sorting algorithm's complexity by counting the number of comparisons, abstracting away details like memory caching or arbitrarily-sized elements. So it's perfectly reasonable for the original author to call arithmeticSum constant time, assuming that the numbers are bounded, and it's also perfectly reasonable for other researchers to say that multiplication is O(n log n), without that assumption.
evanpw··on BlackRock’s decision to dump coal signals what’s next
Yep. There's a good Cliff Asness post on this: https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/Virtue-is-its-Own-.... Increasing expected return for sin stocks is exactly what you want if you're serious about ESG investing.
evanpw··on CleverCSV: A Drop-In Replacement for Python's CSV Module
It's configurable. The default parser is written in C, but it's possible to use a parser based on the csv module if you needs things like separators specified by a regex.
evanpw··on Americans Are Moving at the Lowest Rate on Record
They won't loan you more than X% of the appraised value, but you can make that up with the down payment (or pay the whole thing in cash, as you say).
evanpw··on Post-Empirical Science?
slatestarcodex had a take on this recently: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/11/06/building-intuitions-on...
evanpw··on Over twenty percent of cable TV bills are bogus fees, study says
The progressive / regressive terminology takes it for granted that income is the right denominator to measure against, rather than consumption, which is not obvious in my opinion.
evanpw··on How Discount Brokerages Make Money
Probably a preference for non-finance fields of study. Might be different at hedge funds doing longer-term trading, but at the short end, academic finance is very far from anything being done in practice.
evanpw··on How Discount Brokerages Make Money
Yes, virtually all trades have to be reported.
evanpw··on How Discount Brokerages Make Money
Yes, they do, though it doesn't list the specific internalizer. It looks the same as any dark-pool trade.
evanpw··on How Discount Brokerages Make Money
Market makers sell liquidity, and the spread is the price they sell it at, so they'd prefer to sell at a higher price (larger spread). The reason that spreads tighten is competition: there are a few wholesale market makers, and the brokerages send more of their orders to the MM willing to guarantee the smallest spread. In fact, there's been something of a price war for the last few years, and retail spreads have come way down.
evanpw··on How Discount Brokerages Make Money
(I'm a quant at a trading firm) On the quant side, the somewhat unfortunate answer is "get a STEM PhD". My firm is always looking to hire quants who are also good (Python / C++) developers, but you'll probably not get past the initial resume screen without a PhD or other serious research experience.
evanpw··on Slack Is Going Public Without an IPO – How a Direct Listing Works
A marketable limit order is strictly better: "I'll sell at the best price available, but no more than X% worse than the current price" vs. "I'll sell at literally any price". In most cases, they give identical results, except in certain catastrophic cases where the limit order will save you (e.g., flash crash).
evanpw··on Are Headers in C++ the Problem?
> farming? from some statement I read somewhere 'yield' was the problem

bond yields in finance

evanpw··on $35,000 Tesla Model 3 Available Now
That’s a tax deduction. A tax credit of $X really is $X off your taxes owed.
evanpw··on Blue Apron becomes a penny stock, trading under $1 for the first time
The tick size for stocks less than $1 is $0.0001.
evanpw··on Bloomberg’s ‘The Big Hack’
If Apple and Amazon are lying, they're committing securities fraud.
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