HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

fancifalmanima

72 karma · joined May 20, 2021

submissionscomments
fancifalmanima··on Emulating Pokemon Emerald on GPT-4
I threw that poem into google translate. I think it was actually just French? It didn't actually fulfill your prompt. Is your claim that it's ability to write a poem is a sign of creativity and intelligence? A language model writing a poem is one of the things I'd expect a language model to be able to do. Certainly impressive, but not one of the particularly interesting or surprising things I've seen GPT-3/4 do.

Here is a poem in an invented language

Which looks like the French

But the words are different, the sounds unique

And their mysterious and unknown meaning

I walked the streets of the city

I saw the people living their life

I heard the noises and the laughter

And I felt the warmth of life

But when I looked at the words on the posters

I didn't understand what they were saying

And I felt like I was lost

In a strange and unknown world

So I closed my eyes and listened

The sound of the words in my head

And I started to dream

Of a world where words had meaning

A world where I could talk

And be understood by all

A world where words would be magic

And where dreams would be real.

fancifalmanima··on AMD passes Intel in market cap
Not the person you're replying to, but if I ran a chip business (or a country with a lot of military/economic tech dependent on chips-- IE most countries), it would certainly be something you'd want to de-risk if you could. Sure it's not the only possible outcome. But it's a realistic outcome, and one that has a ton of downside if it happens.
fancifalmanima··on Google fires engineer who called its AI sentient
You're confusing two different pantheons from two different parts of Europe. Zeus != Odin
fancifalmanima··on Ask HN: What can you realistically manufacture in your garage?
To the US, "winning" is basically defined as having access to local resources (including workers) at market rates without the responsibility of governing.

AKA -- free trade. Global free trade exists because the US wants it to. In that sense, it's currently winning/won. The size of the US military and economy (and it's close allies) are largely what enforces that world order.

Personally, I think it's better than the old model of imperialism (it's certainly way less violent and has rapidly increased living standards across the globe). But it's still a case of the big powerful countries enforcing their will on smaller countries.

fancifalmanima··on Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
You seem to explicitly agree with the person you're replying to, but are claiming they're forgetting something. That's the disconnect here.
fancifalmanima··on Chernobyl power plant captured by Russian forces
If you look at what was actually agreed to, it seems like the US and EU are already doing more than obligated. I don't see any nuclear weapons being used, the west has respected their sovereignty, and is even economically sanctioning Russia and providing intelligence and equipment. Bringing this to the security council would do nothing anyways, as Russia is a part of it and any resolution would just get vetoed. The only party that's actually breached the agreement is Russia.

    Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.[17]
    Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
    Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to influence their politics.
    Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
    Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
    Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments.[13][18]
fancifalmanima··on New study disavows marshmallow test’s predictive powers
To say this more explicitly, even the idea of waiting for the second marshmallow being the "preferred" behavior is somewhat classist.

Sounds more like the test is just testing for an adaptation that happens to be well suited to living in a upper-middle class to wealthy environment. If resources are scarce, the kid that takes what they can get now rather than trusting other people will do better in the long run.

fancifalmanima··on New study disavows marshmallow test’s predictive powers
Focus is almost surely an essential skill for key performers. Even among the most famous Gen Z -- you don't think they focus on their social media presence and what they do? What is an 8 hour photo shoot if not focusing? A lot of work goes into what social media influencers post, its not all done on a whim. There's also plenty of Gen Z doing other more traditional work (almost everyone of that generation, really). If anything, they've probably had to develop coping mechanisms from an extremely early age to deal with distraction, compared to prior generations.
fancifalmanima··on Investors bought a record share of U.S. homes in 2021
Don't something like 65% of Americans own their homes? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home-ownership_in_the_United_S...

Realistically, we're in a place where significant prices increases (which has happened, obviously ) and a significant price drop would both have a significant economic impact. Both groups (home owners, and renters) are large. And while a chunk of people that own homes are investors, there are a ton of people that own their home and pretty much depend on selling and capturing the equity in the future for either their next house or retirement. Many of those people are just middle class folks, well into the fat part of the bell curve. Obviously on the flip side, more expensive homes makes it more difficult for new homeowners to buy in, and break out of the renting cycle, build equity, build wealth, etc, etc, and that's also bad. Just wanted to point out the flip side of it.

fancifalmanima··on Plans you're not supposed to talk about
"all of the other people come together to ask you to stop, thus infringing on your liberties."

You've very insight-fully described the policy debate/disagreement between people in pretty much any liberal democracy. Respecting my property rights is actually an infringement on your liberty. Not being able to legally kill me without some just cause is also an infringement on your liberty. What's often lost in the conversation on liberty is that everyone agrees that its a matter of degree. IE -- everyone having absolute liberty isn't viable. Absolute liberty would effectively just be an anarchy. Its just a matter of where the lines are. But somehow the conversation ends up getting reduced absolutes on both sides.

fancifalmanima··on Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]
It would depend a lot on what time period you're talking about. I'm not an expert, but I do a bit of amateur forging and have learned a couple of things just reading about this craft. By the 14 or 1500s, spring steel had been developed in Europe. This would enable a sword to flex rather than break. Japanese swords from the time weren't flexible and were generally more prone to breaking. This had a lot to do with the raw materials that were available. They also tend to have softer mild steel core to help with this problem, with a very hard and sharp edge. If the entire blade were made of the same material as the edge, it would be extremely inflexible and brittle. They're kind of designed in a way where a part of the every hard and brittle edge can crack, but maybe it won't extend all the way up through the blade leaving it somewhat usable. The European longsword from the time might just flex in the same circumstance.

That's not to say that European swords were better than Japanese swords in every way. This is one of many, many factors. And I'm sure there were plenty of crappy longswords at the time (and crappy katans), so you kind of also have to decide if you're comparing the best examples, average examples, or low quality items as well. The skill of the wielder is also important. If you're throwing out a bunch of random soldiers without a ton of training and giving them a sword, you might want to give them something they're less likely to break. My understanding that is there was a period in Japan where only samurai were allowed to carry swords (if my reading is to be believed), who were generally very skilled. They would probably know how to avoid putting their blade in situations where it would be prone to breaking.

And Japanese traditional Japanese sword making techniques are extremely impressive and interesting to read about given the materials that were available at the time.

fancifalmanima··on Tether Fined $41M for Lying About Reserves
^ This is the reason why more folks in crypto should be worried about and enraged by tether. Inevitably, there will be a market condition that leads to tether being insolvent. And when that day comes the people that get hurt will be every day crypto holders. The people running tether will run off with many, many millions of dollars and many will wonder how the heck this happened. And it'll lead to regulation. And centralization.
fancifalmanima··on Home Price to Income Ratio
I'm not going to say that the larger number of women entering the work force has had no effect on home prices, however even if it did it's not necessarily a net negative. A larger workforce leads to more economic output, more innovation (there are countless innovations that have probably failed to be made over the generations due to the impact of women not working) that leads to quality of life improvements, productivity improvements, price drops, and other improvements. Food as a percentage of income has dropped dramatically over the years. Same with technologies like computers and home appliances. Houses are also way bigger than they were decades ago.

I live in a 2 income house with a kid, I'm not sure that the alternative (considering the economy as a whole and not just home prices) is actually preferable.

It's also probably pretty difficult to disentangle the effect on home prices from more women working from the effect on home prices from other things like low interest rates. There's likely not a single cause for this, but rather an outcome of some aggregate of causes. It's entirely possible that more women working does increase home prices some, but that it's only some fraction of the overall increase we've seen, and that families come out ahead on this economically by a wide margin. Especially taking into account the aggregate effect a larger labor force has on output and productivity.

fancifalmanima··on Dutch entrepreneurs avoiding negative interest by opening multiple bank accounts
They're lending 95% of their deposits or whatever the reserve requirement is. It's just that every other bank is too, and when they loan money it almost always ends up back in the banking system just in another account. The money creation is an artifact of the same dollar getting deposited and loaned multiple times.
fancifalmanima··on Dutch entrepreneurs avoiding negative interest by opening multiple bank accounts
Money creation happens when the money is deposited and loaned again

me -> deposit $100 in bank a -> bank a loans $95 to business -> business deposits $95 in bank b -> bank b loans $90.25

This loop repeats indefinitely until we're talking about fractions of pennies. The reserve ratio (and bank willingness to loan up to that ratio) determines the money multiplication effect. No bank is loaning more than it's actual deposits, it's just the effect of the same dollar getting deposited and loaned multiple times.

fancifalmanima··on Rain falls at the summit of Greenland Ice Sheet for first time on record
Even if all the changes that were happening were entirely natural, there's an argument to be made that we know we do well in the conditions that existed during industrialization, and that we should try to maintain the environment within those bands. If we knew the globe was heading into an ice age naturally, for example, I don't know that I'd be against trying to prevent that. I don't want mass starvation, etc.
fancifalmanima··on U.S. Kids Are Getting Nearly 70% of Their Calories from 'Ultra-Processed' Foods
if you buy (from a bakery, probably not from the grocery store) or make bread made from minimally processed to processed flour, water, salt and yeast it would probably be considered minimally processed or processed. When I make homemade bread, those are literally all the ingredients. It has a very different texture, chewiness, and taste from something storebought. They're basically different things. And it doesn't last more than a day or two after cutting it open.

If you buy bread made from bleached white flour, sugar (in pretty much any white bread you buy from the supermarket), bread conditioners, preservatives, etc, it's probably considered ultraprocessed. It can also sit in your pantry for weeks.

fancifalmanima··on U.S. Kids Are Getting Nearly 70% of Their Calories from 'Ultra-Processed' Foods
The bread (made from processed wheat, probably bleached flour, and containing bread conditioners, preservatives) would almost surely fall into the ultra processed category, unless homemade from minimally processed whole wheat flour. The ham and cheese could as well, unless they were made with fairly traditional processes (and probably more expensive than what the typical person is buying at walmart, target, etc). They'd all probably be considered processed foods, at minimum.
fancifalmanima··on Debit card apps for kids are collecting a shocking amount of personal data
Fair enough. The point about the unbanked is pretty convincing.
fancifalmanima··on Debit card apps for kids are collecting a shocking amount of personal data
Why would that matter to this discussion? I want x from retailer y. Retailer y doesn't accept cash. I use a card. If you have an objection to using cards, you're certainly free to decline to make the purchase. Nothing in any of that seems like it would be age related either. What's the difference between having $20, or a debit card linked to an account with $20?
fancifalmanima··on Amazon reverses course, expands work-from-home options
I don't know that the climate impact is necessarily settled: https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200218-why-working-fr...

(note that I'm generally pro wfh, but on the climate side it is feasible that running the AC or heat in your home more during the day is less efficient than driving to work and congregating with bunch of people in a building designed for energy efficiency. I'm not saying that the claim in that article is true, just that I'm not sure that it's settled)

Anecdotally, I ended up getting a CO2 monitor for my house, and had to set the central air fan to run pretty regularly (when not feasible to open windows, which is much of the year year -- quite hot) to circulate the air to keep CO2 levels at a point where they weren't potentially effecting my cognitive abilities (i noticed that's I'd start feeling lethargic and getting headaches, etc). The house is just designed to be sealed up for efficiency, rather than an office building which is often designed to circulate air to avoid that problem. CO2 levels throughout the house have dropped, but there's certainly an energy cost to that.

fancifalmanima··on Purchasing power of one US dollar in every year from 1635 to 2020
It's also only part of the story. If the median or average income has grown at a larger rate than the decline in value of the dollar, you still come out ahead from the perspective of human living conditions. I'm fairly confident that the median American is living a better life than someone in 1630, or 1730, or 1830, or 1930.

In short, from an economic growth perspective -- things have generally worked out. Not that things are perfect, or that I love that anything sitting in my bank is slowly losing value. Just that things have been generally going in a positive direction and I'm personally cool with a slowly devaluing dollar if that means that same general trend continues.

fancifalmanima··on Research suggests that when the rich bank, the rest borrow
I'm definitely speculating, but I could see banks having a glut of money to loan contributing to the low interest rates that have existed for a while now (thinking of money from a supply/demand perspective). With those lower interest rates leading to more interest in buying homes and pushing up prices (during the subprime crisis, to folks that couldn't necessarily afford it). While you'd also expect a housing construction boom, its certainly plausible that the industry would have to play catch up to demand. (It seems easier to me to hire a realtor to go look at homes than to start or expand a construction business). Zoning/other regulations can also slow down that process. The low interest rates also make larger/more expensive homes more feasible for buyers, due to the fact that a smaller percentage of the monthly payment is interest. I could certainly see ways that the above would lead to an individual having a higher debt load than they otherwise would.
fancifalmanima··on The drought in the western U.S. is getting bad
It has great weather, beaches, great food, fun cities, an extremely wide range of biomes for nearby trips, and many extremely well paying jobs.

Sure it has it's problems, but I think what you're describing is an area that's rising (eastern europe) vs an area that rose in the past and is dealing with an equal balance of ups and downs. So it looks like a hellscape. That being said, the governments there do make some weird decisions, and issues with rent prices could be solved by allowing new/higher density construction.

What I'm getting at is income and standards of living are probably rising in your area faster than California, and that makes it feel like its wealthier/more pleasant on an absolute scale when it's in a phase of catching up.

fancifalmanima··on Cryptocurrency Bear?
I don't think there's anything that would preclude the us government from selling bitcoin treasury bonds (accepting bitcoin with the promise to pay more back at a later date, basically). Even if the block chain didn't support it, the contract (bond) can still exist off-chain.

If it took off, and non technical people became more engaged in the space, I really don't see a reason to assume that traditional banks wouldn't accept bitcoin deposits and offer off-chain loans (re-creating the fractional reserve system we have today as well). Unless there was some law preventing it.

I think those two tools together would enable the US government to take on increasing debt loads in bitcoin, and to inflate the currency pool in one of the ways it's able to do with the dollar (the reserve ratio). So I'm sure they'll figure it out.

fancifalmanima··on Cryptocurrency Bear?
I don't think there's anything that would preclude the us government from selling bitcoin treasury bonds (accepting bitcoin with the promise to pay more back at a later date, basically). Even if the block chain didn't support it, the contract (bond) can still exist off-chain.

If it took off, and non technical people became more engaged in the space, I really don't see a reason to assume that traditional banks wouldn't accept bitcoin deposits and offer off-chain loans (re-creating the fractional reserve system we have today as well). Unless there was some law preventing it.

fancifalmanima··on Cryptocurrency Bear?
How does a 3rd party (a court) make that transaction happen without either physically compelling the criminal (not necessarily possible in other countries), or having some kind of master key (which breaks decentralization).

With a bank, they have a financial incentive to stay a part of the international banking system at least.

fancifalmanima··on Let’s Talk About Hot Tub Streams
Sure, and it's reasonable for parents to express to twitch that if they don't actively control sexualized content (or provide parental controls), that they will lose the eyes of their child. It's reasonable for advertisers to do the same. Unless your concept of that is control the mouse and keyboard for the child at all moments, what's the issue?
fancifalmanima··on Face masks effectively limit the probability of SARS-CoV-2 transmission
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-jersey/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

It looks like New Jersey was hit early on (when it was also rampant in New York) and Florida got hit later. It could be that hospitals do better at treating it now. Obviously that's speculative. But there are like 30 things I could think of that would make it difficult to make direct comparisons between states. Climate is another one -- Florida is nice all year round, so you can have family/friend gatherings outdoors. I also live in a warm state, and we've just done family/friend stuff outside, even Christmas. At this point we do things indoors when everyone there is vaccinated, and outdoors otherwise. In the case of Florida, turns out all those people that ignored restrictions and went to the beach were something like like 20x less likely to spread it than people spending time indoors. Again... speculative. Point being, you'd have to somehow have the data you need to properly control for a multitude of factors if you wanted to make direct comparisons (including some solid reasoning on what to control for).

fancifalmanima··on Ask HN: Favorite purchases of last two years?
I have a cast iron skillet and a stainless steel skillet, and I almost always use the stainless. The cast iron almost always only comes out when I need a second skillet.

When I'm searing something, I even prefer that it sticks slightly more to the stainless as it typically releases when it's done anyways -- and my anecdotal experience is that I get a better sear from the surface of the meat sticking to the skillet more firmly.