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flyinglizard

2,539 karma · joined September 1, 2012

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flyinglizard··on The Mythical Man-Month in the Age of AI
Personally at some points (like frontend design) I just ask the agent for 16 options with a convenient comparison system and just yeet designs until I’m happy, guiding it along in a very uncommitted way. “Quantity has its own quality”
flyinglizard··on The Mythical Man-Month in the Age of AI
People are much better than saying what they don’t like than what they do.
flyinglizard··on Anthropic S-1
If the IPO flops, OpenAI might run into a liquidity problem as investors dreaming of a quick back retreat from the market. The private market is a wilder derivative of the public one.
flyinglizard··on Anthropic S-1
It does get lost. Market cap can appear and vanish out of thin air. It's not a zero sum game, not remotely.
flyinglizard··on Tesla Roadster
In my experience electric cars aren’t significantly smoother or quieter. Most noise in a modern passenger car is generated by the tires and air drag, and for some reason I found these more pronounced in the electric cars I’ve tried (maybe for the lack of engine noise).
flyinglizard··on ASML's strong orders ease fears AI spending boom is running out of steam
If you buy the machines and not use them, at most you lost several hundred of millions of dollars (not really, because that machine still retains value for you or someone else later).

On the opposite end, if you don't buy the machines in time, mispredict the demand and can't produce, you lose tens of billions.

flyinglizard··on Bot traffic from Yandex
These countries measure processes in decades. Their rulers are not up for election. They can go through huge (sometimes futile), multi-year projects and processes which would not survive any regime change in the west. They are willing to pay a price to assure their independence from Iranian influence - they pushed and encouraged this war in the first place.
flyinglizard··on Bot traffic from Yandex
Visit Iran, then visit UAE or Bahrain, then tell me again if they got in bed with the wrong ally.
flyinglizard··on REA Reverse – Engineer Anything
At some point Adobe will go after the clones, copyright their interfaces, close standards, patent stuff etc. The barrier for software used to be implementation effort, but now that it's out of the window, it will be more like other forms of IP (music, physical products, etc).
flyinglizard··on I think I found a planet nobody knew existed. I used Claude Code to find it
It’s written as if this was Claude congratulating itself.
flyinglizard··on Orkut.com
TikTok Live, I guess? You can limit it to followers or just friends.
flyinglizard··on LeCun has "zero concerns" about AI wiping out humanity, recent "rogue" incidents
Brainfuck is Turing complete too. But it's not about the ability to implement something, it's about the ability to practically model it. LLMs are magic because the modeling is excessively easy in relation to their capability to infer later.
flyinglizard··on The Escalation of War in Ethiopia
With all due respect, I think you've been radicalized to the point you think the world is going to come together with the singular goal of destroying Israel. No, it will not. Israel's economy is very strong, in fact it's been getting stronger as the war with the Islamists has gone on. It's a technological and military powerhouse. European skies are defended by Israeli systems. A large part of your iPhone was designed in Israel. If you've been running any workload on Amazon, GCP or Azure, chances are you've been using Israeli tech.

Relax, Israel is not going anywhere :) Yes there is a growing anti-Israeli sentiment, but that will go away with time. The strategic gains Israel has made over the past 3 years, though, may hold.

flyinglizard··on The Escalation of War in Ethiopia
It's a completely different situation than South Africa in so many ways. Israel is very well integrated into the global supply chain, has the power of the Jewish diaspora, is majority Jewish (unlike Afrikaners which were a small minority), and is a nuclear power.
flyinglizard··on The Escalation of War in Ethiopia
History is not on your side. US did not support Israel until the 1970's. Israel is far, far stronger today then it was back then. Israel will always have friends, it has a lot to offer and situated in an interesting area.
flyinglizard··on ICC judge on what U.S. sanctions mean for her and global courts
Israel was NOT created through ethnic cleansing. It was a declared a state first, and only then attacked by the Arabs in Palestine and around it, which led to whatever narrative of history you wish to accept. But at the time of the Nakba Israel was already a done deal, legally speaking.

Now, one must ask what would have happened to the Jews in Palestine had they lost that war...

flyinglizard··on The Escalation of War in Ethiopia
Israel is the world's 7th largest arms exporter but only the 14th largest importer. It in fact sold this year around $8bn to Europe alone (Arrow-3 to Germany, and Achilles Shield missile defense to Greece).

The concept that Israel relies on foreign weapons for its survival is detached from reality. Yes, there are things you can't replace like F35 and submarines, but in drones, missiles, air defence, radars, armored vehicles, communication systems etc - Israel is amongst the worldwide leaders.

flyinglizard··on ICC judge on what U.S. sanctions mean for her and global courts
Why this arbitrary timeframe of “8 decades”? Why not 6 (to Jordanian and Egyotian control of West Bank and Gaza) or 9 (to British control) or 11 (Ottoman - Turkish - control) or 300 (Jewish control)?
flyinglizard··on ICC judge on what U.S. sanctions mean for her and global courts
That's a crazy take on history!

1. Around half of Israelis are not from Europe, but from Arab countries (Sephardic). Iraq, Libya, Morocco, Syria etc.

2. Jews have always lived on this land, for as long as history is recorded. Safed, Tiberias and Jerusalem have had continuous Jewish presence for thousands of years.

3. The land belonged to the British mandate and before to the Ottomans, never a self-governing Palestinian group (which are just Arabs).

4. Palestinians are not fighting for their lives and land; that has been offered many times before, starting in the 1930s with various plans, then with the British partition plan, then many other times culminating in Oslo accords and later in the Gaza disengagement. They could have had one state, two states, autonomy, whatever they wanted. They refused all of those, because their STATED goal is to completely and thoroughly remove Jews from that land, which is considered holy to Islam (Al Aqsa mosque is built on the ruins of the Jewish temple mount). Now when Islam came into being, around the sixth century, Jews were a few thousand years old already. So think about this when you try to attribute the land to this group or that.

Throughly fascinating history for those who want to learn it - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwN0K2ZSAoQ

flyinglizard··on ICC judge on what U.S. sanctions mean for her and global courts
I'm sure Israel would love to have the Swiss as their neighbors but it's Hamas they're dealing with. And it's not a "terrorist organization", in Gaza it is a government that commits terror. The ministry of education or health in Gaza are Hamas. The police are Hamas. The tax collectors are Hamas.
flyinglizard··on ICC judge on what U.S. sanctions mean for her and global courts
Hamas is a party in the West Bank but in Gaza it is the government.
flyinglizard··on ICC judge on what U.S. sanctions mean for her and global courts
Is Hamas (which are the only government in Gaza) a signatory of the ICC convention?
flyinglizard··on ICC judge on what U.S. sanctions mean for her and global courts
ICC is trying to get the elected officials in Israel on trial for enacting a defensive policy they think is vital for the country, and overwhelmingly supported by their public.
flyinglizard··on Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
Nvidia and AMD do not fall in "easy to predict". Half, or more, of Nvidia's demand base is like, what, 5 hyperscalers? Which themselves are driven by OpenAI and Anthropic? It's not a sustainable market. Meanwhile Apple's business and demand are very easy to predict, with near constant moderate growth. Apple is also much more sensitive to margins than the hyperscalers, which is why Nvidia can get away with 75% margin.
flyinglizard··on Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
Market cap is not capital. AMD's cash-on-hand is $13b, which is considerable, and they could very well bring external funding to such a project on attractive terms, but it's not pittance. And for what, an historically low-margin commodity like DRAM? Let the boys play it out.

If anyone should do that, though, it's Apple. They have the money, the easy to predict need, the vertical integration in manufacturing. It could open all sorts of avenues for proprietary SoC to RAM interfaces. It makes a lot of sense for them to do.

flyinglizard··on Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
Even if they hold the same opinion as Micron’s CEO, spinning up such a fab to reasonable yields would take a couple of years.

It’s a known dilemma in farming. Your crops are losing, so you decide to switch them to crops that are profitable, but so do your six neighbors and by the time the new crops start producing, you have flooded the market and everyone’s losing again.

flyinglizard··on Updated Google Maps shows destruction of the city of Rafah
Those who shall not be named did not fund, arm, train and direct militias that controlled Austria, France and Poland.
flyinglizard··on Updated Google Maps shows destruction of the city of Rafah
Any rocket or bullet turned against Israel for the past 20 years has its roots in Iran. Iran controlled Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Gaza and Iraq through its militias.
flyinglizard··on Updated Google Maps shows destruction of the city of Rafah
How do you know which ones are booby trapped?
flyinglizard··on Jeff – Jev-compatible 0.8B decision models, trained at home, ~30 ms
I’m totally guessing, but I can’t imagine CUDA has any significance at the frontier lab scale. The operational and capex costs are so massive that the convenience of the platform becomes a minuscule consideration.

It’s just that Nvidia’s stuff works, and available at scale, and includes the full stack with networking, cooling and such.

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