706 karma · joined December 2, 2024
For me it's mostly the latter, which is a natural consequence of LLM writing. When the (time) cost-per-word goes down, there is less incentive to keep signal-to-noise ratio high, so it ends up verbose and bloated. I also believe that this is (at least partially) upstream from everything sounding identical: take two articles on two different subjects - when SNR is high, there isn't really much room for them to become similar (The ingredient list for a risotto will never read the same as the ingredient list for pizza), but when 80% of them is fluff, they can blend together more easily (To take the recipe comparison, this would be the background/story part above the recipe), especially when written by the same LLM
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This is the main reason I heavily dislike the obviously AI generated Flyers, posters and menus you see so often nowadays. When i look at your menu, flyer or poster, the main thing I want to know is "What is this and what can i expect from it?". Real photos of your actual food, embedded in an AI generated layout/design? Good! Great even! "Chatgpt, please make me a flyer for my burger joint"? might as well have a no pictures plaintext flyer/menu.
I'm not sure I'm following? A raise in temperature doesnt in itself cause any particular wildfire, drought or tsunami (just like the weight in a coin won't), but these events get more and more likely (just like losing the coin flip as the coin gets more and more unfair). This doesn't assume anything about the actual probability or trajectory we're on, if i measure my coinflips and they turn out to be 50/50 the argument is just as valid
> strong evidence
I think that pointing to 1 singular graph as "strong evidence" is a bit shallow. there are plenty of reasons to think that there are many confounding variables here.
I agree! Intuitively i would think that most ecosystems evolved to adapt to their environment and, unless this environment is characterized by large swings in temperature and other conditions, will suffer in conditions different from the ones they evolved to thrive in. That means that any change in conditions needs to be slow enough for these ecosystems to gradually adjust by whatever means they have access to.
One difficulty you will encounter when looking into the effects of climate change is that you can't generally attribute individual events to it (or very rarely at least). Its effects are only really visible in more general (abstract) statistical measures (Just like me losing a coin flip doesn't mean the coin is weighted, but when i lose 8 out of 10 flips i will start getting suspicious)
I also think both hard and soft skills are important, it just feels to me that a parent's job is primarily the latter, not the former. There are plenty of places that can teach your child very well how to become a programmer/electrician/younameit, but not many places that you trust to teach your child how to be a good human (amplified by the fact that a lot of social conditioning happens and is engrained before we really go super deep down the "tech tree" of hard skills in life)
Maybe that's just me, but this strikes me as a bit odd. When i think about my parents and what i appreciate about them and how they raised me, hard skills are not very high up the list. Things like encouraging curiosity, agency and freedom to pursue things that I showed interest in even if it meant spending many weekends and many eurodollars on me that they would no doubt have found ways to spend otherwise come to mind first, along with general values about society and how (not) to treat people.
Edit: there are "hard skills" they taught me, but they are more along the lines of "we want you to be a self sufficient human being capable of dealing with life" (cooking, cleaning, how to budget and think about money,...) and less about increasing my value as a participant in the labor market
I think this is why I absolutely hate reading AI-generated PR descriptions, Readmes or wiki entries at work. I work with these people every day, we talk to each other in meetings, but then I read perfectly formatted Slop in the freshly opened PR that has your name and picture attached to it, yet it's almost impossible for me to care about it because (subconsciously or not) i can't bring myself to see it as yours. Same or even worse for reviews.
There are definitely more and less correct ways, but personally i think it's "wrong" to load it in a way that leaves the arms blocked or (not) tilt pieces that get excessive water pooling on top
When you max out your Claude Max plan every billing period, are you consuming more tokens than you could realistically pay for with the same money spent on API inference? Definitely! This works because many Claude Max subscribers don't use it to the max (and you probably aren't using it to the max every single time either), so overall subscriptions might still be profitable. Technically, the subscribers subsidize each other, but this is entirely sustainable (see any other subscription model that is based on its consumers not maximizing their usage, e.g. gyms).
What people mean (or want to say) when they say inference is subsidized is that it is subsidized in an unsustainable way (e.g. with investments that will not last forever - if this is true at scale it should worry us!). What happens now is that they take the fact that an individual subscription used to the max by itself is a financial drain for the company offering it, attach the "subsidized" term to it, and infer from that a bunch of stuff that is usually associated with the term (such as unsustainability) but doesn't really apply here.
[0] https://thinkingmachines.ai/blog/defeating-nondeterminism-in...
> Compilers are, for the most part, deterministic in a way that current AI tools are not. Given a high-level programming language construct such as a for loop or if statement, you can, with reasonable certainty, say what the generated assembly will look like for a given computer architecture (at least pre-optimization).
> The same cannot be said for an LLM-based solution to a particular prompt.
This is the correct and meaningful difference to point out here, but it has nothing to do with determinism. LLMs could be perfectly deterministic and still suffer from the same problem. The problem isn't that LLMs themselves are nondeterministic, it's that language is imprecise, and language models themselves are (for the most part) black box text processors. An imagined piece of functionality ("feature") has to pass through both of these somewhat opaque steps before it ends up as code, unlike code that is processed by a compiler, where both the constraints and the structured /formal understanding of the input are much stronger which allows us to reason about and trace the relationship between inputs and outputs in ways that we can't for LLMs and natural language.
sure, but they don't actually illustrate that, they just point to a different "starting point", committing the same fallacy