3,582 karma · joined February 20, 2016
Of course, sometimes simpler is “I stored the passwords unhashed”, so you have to find the middle ground.
Personally I default to the latter because that’s how my idiosyncratic anxiety feels comfortable, even when I’ve lived somewhere where I would be able to hear people coming a mile off. But I know people who default to the first option even in a place where some of their neighbors default to the latter. A lot of it comes down to personal preference rather than environment, I suspect.
Video generation would only make sense at that scale if it was targeting individual consumers, but then it’d need to cost something that consumers are willing to pay - which practically is probably a few hundred per year at most among US consumers, and much less globally, so again it doesn’t solve for the size of the AI companies.
I don’t see a way that video generation becomes a big industry without making generation much much cheaper.
You have to go back to the 30s and earlier before you get furniture that will stand up like that, and making that furniture new today would cost more than almost anyone could afford.
It's true that this isn't as true for NO, because a small change can give a huge return, but that's asymmetrical. So there's incentive for traders to buy NO, hoping that it moves down, but not an incentive for traders to buy YES, since it doesn't have any room to go up.
In addition, there can be issues related to fees, Kelly betting (if the correct bet is 98%, don't want to bet all the way to 98% or you have no returns and you definitely don't want to put all of your wallet in on it in case it goes against you), and so on.
So this isn't a "3% chance of the elections happening" it's "3%, plus or minus the rate of return over three months, plus or minus all the other related issues". I don't know if that gets you down to zero percent, but it definitely gets you closer.
(Yes Polymarket has tried to do some things to resolve these issue, no they don't work very well.)
Maybe I’m just bad at measuring, but it’s a lot more than 5%.
If no one reviews it and it still gets out, then we can address it then, but that seems much less likely.
Ideally, the solution is that all of these language package managers need to get serious and have maintainers, but lacking that, at least having the waiting period be built into the server instead of the client is a clear win.
If there's some change that must get out sooner, then there can be some fee to pay to npm to have their security team do their own review.
Critically, there must be time for someone to review before it's the default to be selected.
I'm sure there are issues with this, this was off my head, but it seems like a really easy step to at least stem the problem for now. And there are a bunch of ideas like this that would help, but NPM doesn't seem willing to take it seriously as an existential threat to the ecosystem, rather than taking trivial steps.
Selling tulips is a fine business. Selling tulips at an insanely high price by promising that the market for tulips will keep on expanding and increasing the price of tulips is a pyramid scheme. (Well, maybe not quite a pyramid scheme, the structure isn't right. But it certainly wasn't a sustainable business model.)
> The figures were almost universal across all categories: 62 percent of those surveyed across the five European countries said they favored or had considered replacing US data storage and payment services, while 59 percent of respondents said they would back a change from American video-conferencing companies like Zoom.
(Technically only five countries in the EU in this survey, but the five most populous countries, and presumably other countries generally agree)
I don’t need him to pass on LLM answers. I can and do ask them myself. I’m asking questions because I’m interested in the experience my coworkers have beyond what AIs have trained on.