300 karma · joined August 22, 2011
We know already that CO2 and other gases cause climate change and we understand the mechanism. I think that most of us would probably also agree that the earth is a sufficiently complex system that predicting accurately what effects we will see when is impossible. We expect to see more droughts, bigger storms and rising sea levels - but we can't really predict very accurately how big those things will be when. By the time we have accurate models it will be too late.
We know that we need to act now. Understanding climate change is not the most important research out there; what's important is developing technologies and industries to reduce our emissions. That research would be what I fear losing.
Firstly, it's pretty hard to measure the choices people have made. Any attempt at measurement is going to add extra costs for little or no benefit.
Secondly, we're judging people on things where we don't know the complete story. If a single parent is eating unhealthily and not exercising because they are short on both money and time, that's hardly something to make them pay for. If someone's been addicted to cigarettes for 20 years, they have probably tried and failed to give them up. To me treating wealthy people's skiing injuries should be at least as controversial as treating poor people's smoking-related problems. Personally I like to run to keep fit, but I view that as good fortune - I'm lucky that I'm healthy enough to run and that I enjoy it, and that I have time to do it.
Finally if someone gets diabetes after drinking 20 cokes a day, they're definitely paying for that decision even without a financial penalty.
In summary I guess that I feel that good health is a very fortunate thing to have, and I certainly don't feel entitled to extra cash for my good luck.
The question here is as to whether this $1000 bonus/penalty changes behaviour or just rewards those who are naturally healthy/enjoy sport/like healthy food.
Comparing the photo-voltaic capacity installed in 2016 with wind capacity is a bit misleading, as wind typically has a much higher capacity factor than solar - so the 59GW of wind will almost certainly produce more electricity than the 70GW of solar.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/china-to-halt-con...
http://rameznaam.com/2015/08/30/how-steady-can-the-wind-blow...
The point at which energy storage becomes an issue is a long way off if you connect the country with HVDC lines. Building such lines would be a great achievement for this fund. However, I guess the political question will get hit at that point: will the government be as keen to let private investors build new power infrastructure as it is for them to build new oil pipelines?
Amongst the many attractive properties of LFTRs is the ability to burn spent fuel from existing nuclear plants.
So possibly: If you always say NO, you never learn anything. If you always say YES, you never deliver anything.
The time to find a bug with a debugger has a much tighter distribution than the time to find one by thinking about the code. There are some problems that you just can't get to the bottom of by thinking.
By having one person take each path, you get the advantages of both. It might seem that a single programmer should be able to achieve the same by switching between the two approaches, but the cost of context switching is so great that it will be more like starting again each time. So it's really hard to know when to stop thinking about it and to get the debugger out.
The advice that once you find the bug you should work out what the problem really is definitely holds solid, though.
http://duartes.org/gustavo/blog/post/page-cache-the-affair-b...