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holoto

17 karma · joined April 3, 2015

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holoto··on Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment
First of all Greek people need to pay their taxes.
holoto··on Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment
Spains unemployment rate was 24% in 1994. It was 21% in 1985. Or 18% in 1998. Unemployment in Spain is traditionally 10% above northern countries or the US. So yes unemployment is high (we had a crisis and had a recession!) but not as high as you make it look without context.
holoto··on Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment
The US will also not pay back it's debt. This is not how it works. You do not pay off debt. You refinance debt with other debt. So this "There's no way Greece's debt can ever be repaid in full." is beside the point.
holoto··on Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment
@euccastro Yes life was miserable with the Deutsche Mark. Oops it was much better for most Germans. China is in trouble because it controls it's own export destiny through it's currency? I think not.
holoto··on Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment
In Germany many people live from going through garbage, you can see them everywhere in large cities. Kids from poor people need to be fed buy the Church. Pensions and social benefits were cut over the last decade, people need to work until 67 to get a pension, unemployment benefits do practically no longer exist in Germany. Germany has the lowest amount of house owners and private wealth.

But Germans should pay for Greece?

holoto··on Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment
Yes and hopefully Germany picks an Euro exit.

As is clear to anyone interested in the topic and listening to French government officials, binding Germany in the Euro was the price for reunification.

holoto··on Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment
5-10 years? Not if you take a look at Argentina.
holoto··on Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment
Germany successfully refinanced several German banks during the crisis and the current debt of Greece will not be payed fully back before 50 years. German EU contribution will be cut back. The impact to Germany will be minimal.

For Greece? Take a look at Argentina.

holoto··on Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment
I applaud the Greek Government. They show how important a nationalistic point of view is (as in "Greece first").

For 70 years no German Government could win on a nationalistic ticket. The vast majority of German elites were pro-Europe. The majority of people saw the billions of $ wealth transfer to the southern and eastern countries as moral compensation for the war.

With comparing the elected German chancellor to Hitler, comparing the finance minister to a concentration camp manager and the talk of reparations, Germans felt insulted and black mailed and Greece created cracks in the above narrative.

The Greek government achieved that the next German government and generation of conservatives will win on a nationalistic ticket to fend of right wing anti European parties like the AfD (Alternative For Germany). Which is good, as the best for Germany is not a political union like the EU but TTIP and something like NAFTA combined with a China style currency policy. The EU helps small countries gain disproportional power and poor countries gain money transfers while it binds and hinders Germany and France. The US does what's best for the US for the last 200 years. A proud symbol to learn from.

Next step could be the UK EU exit, FN in France will help, TTIP and with Polish NAFTA love this could be the first stepping stones for an unpolitical economic union.

holoto··on Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment
Not sure this will work when countries do not pay back credits or bonds. Most countries today need to raise money to finance their spending. If everyone does this, the lending market will break down.

Not sure that this helps those countries that depended on credits most (like Greece).

I'm also not sure if it is the best strategy for Greece to bite the hand (EU as the IWF is just the beginning) who transfered billions of $ to Greece over the last decades. If the Greece government has a plan to not depend on credit and EU subsidies in the future, hurray to them. Perhaps with the new Russian conflict they could trade in EU subsidies and wealth transfer to renting bases to Russia. But they will find out it's much harder to break a 100 year contract for a Russian base in Greece than a contract with the IWF.

If not, this looks like a bad move.

holoto··on Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment
“We are a Left-wing government."

The government is a coalition of right wing nationalists and left wing - nationalistic - marxists. Not sure why this should be called a left wing government. Calling the government left-wing is marketing to get sympathies with leftist people in Europe.

So I'd rather call the government nationalistic populist.

holoto··on Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment
So cheating others who lent you money out of their money is democracy. Indeed this is radical. But breaking contracts is not something to base your future on if you're not self-sufficient.
holoto··on Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment
The discussion over the last months was not about austerity - this was an 2014 topic - but about a plan for the future. The greek government did provide a plan without much detail, one you would not get any money from your bank for a house or any money - this is HN - from a VC. Greece hopes to get billions of $ based on some napkin calculations.

Reason is Greece does not want to commit to any foreign influence because it feels nationally threatened.

The IMF enforces a way by which it hopes to a.) get the money back it puts in b.) no need to put money back in 5y in the future. You could make this about money or investment, or you can make this about right-wing/left-wing.

holoto··on Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment
Everyone can decide to not pay back lent money and it's his or her right to do so.

It does make getting contracts in the future much more difficult though.