It was true then, is true now, and will always be true.
200 karma · joined October 26, 2008
Founder of lmframework.com
david at (domain as above)
It was true then, is true now, and will always be true.
As regards focusing on what the stack looks like now rather than making an educated guess as to the not-too-distant future, here I have to disagree. Our business is all about well-reasoned gambles, and it seems pretty clear HTML5 will win the day for all but the most complex / intensive apps, so it really only boils down to timing.
Highly-respected VC Mark Suster made a similar point when he advised people to "skate where the puck is going" http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2010/10/17/skate-where-th...
It's just a question of timing - when is it going to be OK to go 100% HTML5? (assuming, of course, the app is not particularly complex)
What if you just wanted to present an existing web service to mobile users in an "app-like" UI?
The idea of adding native wrappers around a pure HTML/JS implementation sounds very interesting - like having your cake and eating it....
Basically I'm asking whether HTML5 will be mature enough both in terms of functionality and browser market share in around 6 months time.
In the early days of computerized trading it was quite common for even quite liquid stocks to be suspended limit up/down because of programming bugs.
But by Joel's logic, the market has 'spoken' and these companies are now worth 10% more/less than 30 seconds prior, when in fact all that has happened is some faulty code just ripped through the book on minimal volumes.
The point is that 'true' valuations are validated by significant volumes. Hence Google's valuation is real. Depending on your viewpoint, the size of the recent transactions in FB may or may not be material - and I think this is the point that David was making.
Wily investors always look for meaningful volumes before taking big jumps/declines in share prices seriously.
One of the easiest ways to ramp a stock (apart from getting your journalist buddy to write a puff piece) is to continually lift the offer for small volumes.
I would argue Apple is not allowing Flash because it has the speed and graphics ability to compete with native apps (which Apple are monetizing).
Apple are ambivalent to HTML5 - on the one hand it improves the browser experience, but on they other they have been slow to expose the location, accelerometer and touch functionality to the browser.
http://blog.wolfire.com/2010/01/Web-applications-on-the-iPad
Whilst there is no doubt Yahoo is strong in some areas, he's saying Yahoo has thrown-in the towel in the big fat one. He argues that Yahoo had more than one chance of being a player in search and each time they fluffed it. All the current focus-on-core-strengths talk doesn't cover up the fact that they blew the big one. That's his point, and I think it's a very valid one.
I'm quite surprised the kids were so willing to walk away from services like FB in which they have a lot of 'emotional capital' invested. I would have thought FB would have been 'stickier' given the photos, memories of shared events etc.
It would have been interesting to dig deeper and try and work out how much of this free web attitude is learned behavior. It's clear everyone expects to pay for internet access, telephony and cable. Is there not scope for 'teaching' people that a lot of the web just cannot be free over time?