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j_timberlake

336 karma · joined June 20, 2024

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j_timberlake··on What Americans die from vs. what the news reports on
well I guess I just proved your God isn't real, sorry fsckboy
j_timberlake··on What Americans die from vs. what the news reports on
"Too many hyphens!" is definitely the dumbest insult I've ever seen for someone digging through a comment history, holy shit.
j_timberlake··on What Americans die from vs. what the news reports on
lol, I upset you that much?
j_timberlake··on What Americans die from vs. what the news reports on
Yes it is, it's called planning-ahead for the extremely predictable.
j_timberlake··on What Americans die from vs. what the news reports on
I'm surprised how low suicide rates are at 2%. If I were an old sick person and steadily becoming more of a burden, there's no way in hell I would just leave it to nature to decide when I die, or let the profit-maximizing hospital bureaucracy make that call for me. I'm sure some old folk are afraid that suicide will send them to hell, as if God wouldn't understand.
j_timberlake··on Toyota aims to launch the ' first' all-solid-state EV batteries
It's a Tesla fanboy/investor website. They used to have the $TSLA stock ticker right on the front page. Commentor opinions on any other car company are even more useless than the average internet opinion.
j_timberlake··on Man still alive six months after pig kidney transplant
Transplanted kidneys get rejected by the recipient's immune system eventually, you'd really need to clone the kidney from the individual's DNA to solve the rejection problem. There's also been some success with integrating the DNA from the kidney donor (a human) into the recipient's bone marrow to stop the rejection process, but I hear it can be a brutal procedure in which the original bone marrow must be destroyed using chemotherapy or radiation.

https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/video-eliminat...

https://www.immunofree.com/how-it-works/

If I were a patient, I'd probably want a pig kidney now and really hope it lasts until something like kidney cloning is a thing.

j_timberlake··on Abundant Intelligence
So be better than him..?
j_timberlake··on Abundant Intelligence
You skipped any attempt to prove his statements wrong, this is just reddit-level sneering with zero discussion material.
j_timberlake··on Chrome's New AI Features
It's been like 18 months of Google saying they're putting genAI into all their services, it's 100% your fault if this is a surprise for you.

"We need to push for the right to opt out of AI features."

You've had access to Firefox for over 20 years.

j_timberlake··on Gemini in Chrome
They took 1 step at a time instead of trying to take multiple steps at a time, how is that a bad thing. They're obviously getting things prep'd for Chrome agents and Gemini 3.
j_timberlake··on Gemini in Chrome
I think if Google trained current models on private data, confidential info would leak constantly, it would be an absolute trainwreck. If Gemini leaked your Gmail and Chrome activity, Google would get sued and regulated into oblivion.

But Google needs to leave this option open in the future, in case they have to go all-in on an arms-race against China, if Chinese AI starts becoming an actual threat somehow. And it's easy to predict the USA gov would prioritize that race over privacy concerns.

j_timberlake··on DeepMind and OpenAI win gold at ICPC
This response is good but the more general problem is that people are in "It doesn't look like anything to me" mode like Westworld robots seeing advanced technology. If there's a way to snap people out of that, I've never seen it.
j_timberlake··on The West Wing and the Death of Belief
I think it's just a simple case of "when times are good, people cooperate, when times are bad, they turn on each other."

And right now, we're somewhere in-between, where things have stagnated but nothing's catastrophic yet. People turn on each other over tiny symbols, but very few people are actually choosing violence over words.

The problem is that the default trajectory is currently downward. Stocks grow at 6% while wages lose ground to inflation, and no one is doing anything to stop this (most of them don't even seem to realize this, they just have some intuition that the economy is being not-nice), so things are probably going to get worse until some Next-Big-Thing finally shakes things up.

j_timberlake··on In Search of AI Psychosis
Right now it's the at-risk people, who maybe were going to fall into some rabbit-hole anyway. When it's the typical/average people that start getting hooked like this, that's going to be a whole new headache. Really hoping things don't play out like that...
j_timberlake··on A teen was suicidal. ChatGPT was the friend he confided in
This is called the "Man bites dog" bias.

The many people who don't commit suicide because an AI confidant helped them out are never ever gonna make the news. Meanwhile the opposite cases are "TODAY'S TOP HEADLINE" and that's what people discuss.

j_timberlake··on Palantir CEO Alex Karp's Letter to Shareholders
If Harris was president, this letter would probably say "We proudly support the future of American scholarship and inclusion over simple-minded emotional reactions".
j_timberlake··on From $479 to $2,800 a month for ACA health insurance next year
If Dems put any strategy into winning elections, they would never have picked Hillary, Biden, or Harris.
j_timberlake··on From $479 to $2,800 a month for ACA health insurance next year
Just in time for the midterm elections? Seems like the Dems have this handed to them on a silver platter, but they're so bad at winning elections, it probably still won't matter.
j_timberlake··on 4chan will refuse to pay daily online safety fines, lawyer tells BBC
They're not going to suddenly become competent enough to implement something like that.
j_timberlake··on 4chan will refuse to pay daily online safety fines, lawyer tells BBC
"You are probably not very exposed to non-native speakers."

If native speakers have to talk to people of other languages to understand it, then it's not even English at that point. What it is, who knows.

j_timberlake··on The Coming Robot Home Invasion
Absolutely not happening. If robots get versatile enough to clean a random home, then they'll be good enough for higher-value work like being a robotic soldier or building more robots. And if they're taking lots of jobs like that, then there's going to be tons of spare man-hours for busywork like cleaning.
j_timberlake··on GPT-5
That's probably their best bet, though the other AI companies are shaking hands too:

https://www.gsa.gov/about-us/newsroom/news-releases/gsa-prop...

Announced exactly 1 day before the $1 thing, to make everything extra muddled.

https://www.gsa.gov/about-us/newsroom/news-releases/gsa-anno...

j_timberlake··on GPT-5
I know, you wanted to vent about the USA and abandon the thread topic, and I countered your argument without even leaving the topic.

Like how I can say that the future of USA's AI is probably going to obliterate your local job market regardless of which country you're in, and regardless of whether you think there's "no identified use-case" for AI. Like a steamroller vs a rubber chicken. But probably Google's AI rather than OpenAI's, I think Gemini 3 is going to be a much bigger upgrade, and Google doesn't have cashflow problems. And if any single country out there is actually preparing for this, I haven't heard about it.

j_timberlake··on GPT-5
"You would need ~30 years of continuously beating the market to be able to claim that you are statistically likely to be better than random chance."

You use the word statistically as if you didn't just pull "~30 years" out of nowhere with no statistics. And people become billionaires by making longshot bets on industry changes, not by playing the market while they work a 9-5.

"Does your average speculator have 30 years of experience beating the market, or were they just lucky?"

The average speculator isn't even allowed to invest in OpenAI or these other AI companies. If they bought Google stock, they'd mostly be buying into Google's other revenue streams.

You could just cut to the chase and invoke the Efficient Market Hypothesis, but that's easily rebuked here because the AI industry is not in an efficient market with information symmetry and open investing.

j_timberlake··on GPT-5
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j_timberlake··on OpenAI's new open-source model is basically Phi-5
You don't understand! Every erotic chatbot service keeps getting censored, what happened to CharacterAI just keeps happening. There's a serious supply-shortage, do you really want people turning to Grok? The spice must flow!!!
j_timberlake··on GPT-5
"irrelevance" yeah sure, I'm sure Europe's AI industry is going to kick into high gear any day now. Mistral 2026 is going to be lit. Maybe Sir Demis will defect Deepmind to the UK.
j_timberlake··on GPT-5
The correlation between "speculator is a billionaire" and "speculator is good at predicting things" is much higher than the correlation between "guy has a HN account" and "guy knows more about the future of the AI industry than the people directly investing in it".

And he doesn't just think he has an edge, he thinks he has superior rationality.

j_timberlake··on GPT-5
My 2 cents: ChatGPT -> Gemini 1 was their 15-month lead. The moment ChatGPT threatened Google's future Search revenue (which never actually took a hit afaik), Google reacted by merging Deepmind and Google Brain and kicked off the Gemini program (that's why they named it Gemini).

Basically, OpenAI poked a sleeping bear, then lost all their lead, and are now at risk of being mauled by the bear. My money would be on the bear, except I think the Pentagon is an even bigger sleeping bear, so that's where I would bet money (literally) if I could.

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