johnsmith1840

I'm a heavy user and fable is great the #1 reason I stopped using it was the horrible safegaurd filter. I found sol close enough in capability and have only been blocked when my request was an obvious offensive cyber work. Fable blocked me on almost everything.

Optimizing a OS build? -> block

Securing a container -> block

60% is nowhere near enough for that safegaurd system. This just means I am going to be blocked half as much? Any long running task will likely get blocked.

Say you give a single big prompt and fable goes off for 6hrs of work. At hr 5 it gets blocked you now have the option of a much dumber model taking over and wrecking it or losing the entire 5hrs of work. That risk is beyond terrible and deffinetly not worth a 5-10% percieved improvement on my end. I previously would just bring sol in when that happened and realized sol is stupidly close in capability.

Once robots mature, yes. People will literally prompt buildings into existance.

I think that's more than 10yrs from now but if coding AGI or close enough to it becomes real robotics will also accelerate.

"Robot are the commands you have been given dangerous?"

"You cannot control legs for this task"

"You have 1 min for this task"

"You can only make suggestions for this task"

Anonymize identity best you can.

That's not that scary.

Nah, there's an obvious reason figure made splashy announcement of people cleaning homes with recording devices strapped to their heads.

Chatgpt had the internet.

Robots do not. Translating video is promising but obviously not enough.

Robots will likely never "explode" like chatgpt. They're gonna be a slow long term project requiring massive capitol to get the data.

It's a customer funnel. They've been attempting a similar product for years and nobody cares.

Did you read the model hack that occured on their platform? I wouldn't exactly call them "advanced" if their security practices are anything to go by.

Code is hard but more likely it is a brand thing which is much harder to do. Nvidia for years now has tried to get a public ai model hub of sorts working. This is obviously them throwing in the towel.

It's such an obvious customer funnel they have been trying for years to make.

1. Customer googles "some model" 2. Hugging face is often top result 3. Thinks it's great 4. Buys

The customers are already on hugging face.

Acting like code is the blocker here would be very wrong. Nvidia 200% has the technical knowhow to make a hugging face platform and they'd likely make it better.

I think yes but on different categories. First one I imagine is robotics control and support.

"This robot is having trouble folding a tshirt help it out for 1$"

Unless they go the waymo route of highly trusted people but I think mass deployed robots are a bit safer than a car for this.

So what if none of that happens? Say 10yrs from now it's basically the same as now, would you change your opinion?

And go where?

I use waymo all the time? It's literally here. I massively prefer it to a cab. Only question left is how long it takes to scale and make cheap.

Prolly what, 30yrs? Places like SV or other advanced locations will hit majorty faster than that. The rest of the world ~50yrs.

Hype is fast but tech is a decades rollout. AI will hit its stride in 5-10yrs. Which is scary because it's already stupidly powerful. Saturation of AI though is still a 20yr+ horizon.

A very large percentage of systems you use every day being built with AI?

Coding has changed butbuissness has not.

I dunno dude, it's getting scary fast. You tried a fable/5.6sol maximum effort on a chunky task yet?

Maybe in a few years being a good coder will be like being a good taxi driver with self driving. You know the best spots and the ai can't drive the most unusual roads but effectively 95% of all driving is self driving.

Except I actively despise that commit message anytime I see it.

Reasonable take then. You think oil, ai, space aren't the deciding factors of the next 50 years? An interesting argument against is maybe the big one is who can produce the most cheap robots and drones (China). It's unsure if that is decisive but it's clearly a big factor.

Sure but so is every super power. The question to ask is the alternative. US is "nice" compared to previous powers in history. Even the British were "nice" for their time period. They ended slavery almost worldwide as easily the most obvious win. They did alot of good as well as sucking pretty hard, kinda philisophical question at that point though.

Evil big AI not considering people who don't know yet if they care about these books.

How dare they!

Exactly as they were before then? Sitting in a book sellers private collection. But since we hate AI that is now bad.

Outdated... Let me know when planes fly on solar, shipping containers on wind and your chair isn't made of plastic.

Drones have made terrorism hard to stop in iran. But it's not over let's see where it goes. The positives are that Iran has effectivelt made lifelong allies of our arab neighbors. They used to lean toward china but now china is supplying weapons to the country bombing their people. Additionally israel and arabs may actually normalize diplomacy between each other as a result which would also be a massive win.

If US can collapse Iran we're looking at it being the strongest it has ever been and likely the strongest power to have ever existed. If not then it's roughly british empire at its peakish as of now.

You mix that with Russia getting it's asses kicked and every single country around china massively aligning with US and that's a recipe for success.

EU honestly is the downside here they are upset but also the sad truth is europe is no longer a world power. A regional one at best.

You could argue that america will BEGIN to decline as the recent policies take effect but as of now really the only negative is we don't do enough social spending and our supply chains aren't secure enough. Let's see how EU does over time if they are forced to build their own military again and population collapse hits their tax base that social spending is gonna get argentina like real fast.

On basically all metrics the US is most prosperous country on earth. Our middle class turned into upper class. It's a pretty bad argument when the poorest part of the country are richer than basically anywhere else in the world. The only argument I could entertain on this line of thought is that the US has reached it's peak (today) and may decline. That atleast has merit because there's a good argument the AI bubble popping could lead to a chain reaction causing long term decline. But saying the US has currently declined is crazy when seeing the previous 2 years. Maybe the argument is that the craziness the US has been doing is "burning" its potential for short term gaibs for long term damage. Totally possible but there really isn't an argument to be had that the US is currently some weak or lost cause as of now.

EU is struggling for a lot of reasons the US was supporting the bad design. I do believe it's a kind of learned helplessness though and youre right. If EU stopped social spending reduced regulations rebuilt their military they could actually make a come back in like 15yrs. Sounds like a long time but that actually is really good and their recent discussions on actually rebuilding their militaries is a glimmer of hope. But the greatness of europe like it was in the past? As of now a totally lost cause and that's cultural. Until the current generation dies and people who want to see europe be a real power again come up there's no way. France would be my bet on this front.

An actual failure of a super power is britain. That's what it looks like when a super power has "lost" the only question to ask is wether US is currently in it's 1700 British empire mode or 1940 one.

Everyone has said how the us is failing for literally my entire life now. They intensified in 2016 with oramge man's first term and continued to now. But again, in realistic terms the US is not less than it was a decade ago and in obvious terms it's in a better position today since the 80s.

The most obvious example is energy. Middle east and venuzuela were basically light advesaries. Saudi was leaning towards china. Now? US essentially controls the majority of oil in the entire world. Nobody else can put a fleet of ships on the output of ME like that. Sure Iran can commit terrorism on civilians but nobody can drop an army anywhere in the world like the US. Our arab allies have heavily realigned to the US. Our oil is the highest output ever. Venuzuela is ours so in 15yrs so is the next middle east of oil output.

So again. World energy dominance for the next 50yrs minimum. We have the largest datacenter capacity by a stupidly large margin. Possibly in 20yrs a complete monopoly on industrial space flight. Those 3 things together to me are a near garauntee dominance. Even one of those things could be enough to stay a super power but all of them? All at once? That's a wild combo. No other country even has one of those (i suppose ME countries with oil is the only one).

We'll see how Iran turns out though. That would be the chink in the output above. State sponsored civilian terrorism is a hard thing to stop but they have succeeded in aligning every arab ally against them pretty good.

Like ever actual rare book unscanned in private collection.

So ai companies can just setup an academic method for researches to see the scans? Only reason they're doing this is because people complaining about copyright

They weren't public?

Nothing? What's the difference of the vast rare books in private collections never scanned or public? Ever been to the rare book conference? None of those are public.

They are digitally scanning them? What knowledge is being lost here?

I mean aren't thry literally just digitally scanning books that basically nobody else has?

I can morn paper but it's not like the contents are being lost.

Rumors of rare books being destroyed would be the bad part of this but if "rare" is the tourist guide to a local cave why should we care?

Feels alot like the water argument

As we literally just invented cheap space travel and AI?

Massive energy stores, massive military, massive datacenters.

I would not want to bet against that

Well there's the root of the disagreement. I view it as the opposite, that the US is setting itself up to be the dominant world power for the next 100 years. Energy, space and AI if US doesn't fumble those we're looking at a golden age the likes of which we've never seen.

Also fyi the US science budget has literally not changed. So luckily the orange man can kick and scream but our budget for science isn't going away (not to say it's not disrupted).

You saying america isn't doing well?

Maybe

Most of the developed world aint doin so hot

US public transit is a finacial disaster far beyond any other country.

Road maintenance is normally cheaper/faster with private.

Healthcare is a can of worms but you could be right. The real problem with public health is what happens when these gov can't afford it anymore. US is likely in the wrong now but I want to see the results 50yrs from now when social spending cannot keep up with rising costs and decreasing taxes in EU (population collapse).