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jp57

3,465 karma · joined April 26, 2016

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jp57··on AI analysis of CT scans finds 42.9% of patients have coronary inflammation
If all the other biomarkers of inflammation "showed no correlation with the presence of coronary inflammation" as predicted by this scan, then how exactly do they assess the positive predictive value of the scan?
jp57··on AI analysis of CT scans finds 42.9% of patients have coronary inflammation
From the article:

Importantly, routine bloodwork and clinical tools – including ... hs-CRP [among other tests] ... – showed no correlation with the presence of coronary inflammation and failed to identify which patients had inflamed arteries.

jp57··on Whatever Happened to Fire Escapes
I don't think they're sending firefighters as first responders because they're bored. The idea of a first responder is you send whoever is closest to get there and render aid. If it's a medical emergency, they may send firefighters or police, if they are closest, but they also send the EMTs/paramedics who may arrive a bit later.

Thirty years ago (in USA) that's already how it was done where I lived.

jp57··on First enhanced geothermal power plant completed in just 23 months
Does "enhanced geothermal" have a definition beyond "drilling deeper", or "whatever anyone does that's different than what what was done before"?
jp57··on Claude Opus 5.5
It is certainly a sidebar, and not the main point, but I found use of the verb "to pace" in that way, meaning "to limit the speed of", to be strange, especially hanging out there in the headline, without any clarification. And these kinds of strange usages are typical of Claude's writing, at least up to now. The Opus 5.5 announcement claims that its writing is much clearer, with bottom-line-up-front structure, and omitting not-this-but-thats and other things.

Now a computer scientist might claim that this use of "to pace <something>" is just a generalization of "to pace oneself", but as with many reflexive verb uses, there isn't really an equivalent usage with a non-reflexive object. It's kind of an invention. It's not necessarily wrong to invent a new usage, but usually one does it when there isn't really any other more direct way of saying it, and I don't think that's the case here.

jp57··on iOS 27, iPadOS 27, and macOS 27
Also Apple's fiscal year starts at the end of September. (Not exactly on Oct 1, because their fiscal calendar is weird.)
jp57··on I-have-ADHD: A skill to stop coding agents from burying the answer
We have a new senior engineer on my team who is from SF and was last at a big SF tech firm. Today I noticed him, in one conversation, describing something as "load-bearing" and also describing something as "trap-door-shaped".

So maybe it really is just weird SF tech-speak, unless he's just been really influenced by Claude.

jp57··on I-have-ADHD: A skill to stop coding agents from burying the answer
This is insulting to Shakespeare.
jp57··on I-have-ADHD: A skill to stop coding agents from burying the answer
But why did that style of writing get rewarded? The people at Anthropic are ultimately responsible for the reward signal and what it produced.
jp57··on I-have-ADHD: A skill to stop coding agents from burying the answer
Let's face it. Claude (in particular) is a terrible writer. There's a whole cottage industry of skills and CLAUDE.md instructions trying to push it toward writing better, but each new model iteration seems expressly designed to override all that so that it can load up its writing with unnecessary participle phrases, not-this-but-thats, burying the lede, and other nonsense.

I genuinely wonder if the people inside Anthropic actually communicate with each other like that. Has it been imprinted with Dario's engrams?

jp57··on Coding expertise is going to collapse from AI reliance
Boats didn't go away with the demise sailing as a commercially viable mode of transport.
jp57··on Coding expertise is going to collapse from AI reliance
I fall into the category of senior engineers who benefit from LLMs for all the reasons mentioned in this post. I find it's possible to agree completely with sentiments like this and still feel as if this is all written in the sand below the high tide line, and ten years from now nobody will care about this.

Horsemanship and sailing were both specialized skills of high value to society, and now they're not. But in each case there was probably a liminal period, when being an accomplished horseman or sailor was still valuable, even as motors were taking over. Eventually that period ended, as the new generations without those skills found ways to get by with cars and motorboats.

jp57··on Turns are Better than Radians (2022)
Or you could use 1/360 of a turn.
jp57··on Remote workers report the highest well-being in study of 7,700 employees
There is no mention of how many of the surveyed workers are even able to work remotely. A large healthcare organization is likely to employ many people who must be on-site in a hospital or clinic to even do their jobs, from doctors and nurses to orderlies, food service, and cleaning staff.

It is easy to imagine that the ER staff might report lower well-being than someone on the admin staff who works from home on their laptop all day.

jp57··on California's new tire efficiency rules could save drivers $1B a year
This. My wife and I both thought the low-rolling-resistance tires on our hybrids felt very unsafe in the rain. My Audi A3-etron's tires were also by far the least durable tires I have had on a car in my 40+ years of driving. I prematurely replaced or repaire more tires on that car in 8 years than on all the other cars I've had put together.

I eventually switched to a midsize truck, because I need to do some light towing sometimes, and my first thought was, it feels so much safer in the rain.

jp57··on Colorado River plummets as lakes Powell and Mead drop to record lows
The shrinking reservoirs are the immediate result of record-low snowpack this winter, which was erased by record heat in the spring. Melted snowpack creates most of the Colorado’s flow during the dry summer months. But as the Southwestern climate has grown hotter and drier, the river’s flow has become smaller and less reliable.

Legitimate question: I can understand that record-low snowpack would cause less water to flow into the lake, but the "erasure" of the snow pack by heat is just melting that would be captured in the lake, right? So if the record-low snowpack had been followed by record cold, would we have even less water in the lake?

jp57··on Working with AI feels more like leadership than coding
Leaving aside the quibbling over the meaning of the word leadership, I'll say I personally agree with this sentiment. I returned to a senior IC role after six years managing a small team just as agentic coding was starting to happen. The timing was perfect, I got about 8 months to get my chops back up by hand (I had never really fully stepped away from coding) before the good agentic tools became available at my company.

It was interesting to observe the other engineers around me, none of whom had ever managed people. They tended to try to "program" the agent to produce exactly the code that they envisioned, and were very cautious, seemingly quite afraid that the agent would do something unexpected.

Having managed engineers, I was much more comfortable with asking someone to do something and having them do something more-or-less different from what I was expecting or had envisioned. Sometimes that was worse, sometimes better, than what I'd had in mind, but it was very rare that I would ask an engineer to do something and they would produce exactly the thing I'd imagined.

Having had that experience, I was quite comfortable giving a task to an agent and saying to myself, "Okay, let's see what you come up with," and then evaluating the result. And as with people I knew I had to learn the right way to talk to the agent in order to make myself understood, just as I'd had to learn the right way to talk to each person on my team.

The big differences were that (a) I didn't have to wait days or weeks to see what the agent came up with so the cost of being misunderstdood was much lower, and (b) the agents generally had much, much better reading comprehension than they typical engineer, so in fact I was misunderstood less often.

jp57··on The punched card tabulator
While spitting out numbers, these machines generated exorbitant profits over decades for the company that would become known as IBM.

Funny that IBM would describe its own profits as “exorbitant”. A little truth in advertising for once?

jp57··on 5th Heat Dome Expands Across Europe: 40°C+ Target Western and Central Europe
Having more old people is even more of a reason to make it easy to get air conditioning.

I live in the USA, and there are certainly many ways in which the USA is negligent on health care, but making sure people can stay cool in hot weather isn't one of them.

In any case, this isn't a zero sum game, where the USA's negligence in one area negates Europes negligence in another.

jp57··on 5th Heat Dome Expands Across Europe: 40°C+ Target Western and Central Europe
Don't they have to heat them in the winter too? That also costs more and creates more emissions without insulation.
jp57··on 5th Heat Dome Expands Across Europe: 40°C+ Target Western and Central Europe
[H]ow do you propose Europe protect not only people from the heat, but [all these other things]?

Why does it have to be framed as all-or-nothing? I agree that using air conditioning to reduce the number of people who die from the heat does nothing to help with the problem of jellyfish, but how is that relevant, exactly?

jp57··on 5th Heat Dome Expands Across Europe: 40°C+ Target Western and Central Europe
The warming is terrible and deadly, AND ALSO Europeans are negligent in not protecting themselves however they can.

The idea that Europe could slow warming by not using air-conditioning is absurd, when the emissions mostly come from elsewhere. France, in particular, gets most of its energy from nuclear power, but also makes it very hard to get climatisation.

jp57··on The Dunning-Kruger effect may just be a data artefact (2020)
There are so many strange things about the original Dunning-Kruger plot. Why use quartiles for one axis and percentile for the other? Why use higher precision for the subject's estimate, which is by definition imprecise, and lower precision for the true score, which is known precisely?

I think the only conclusion you can draw from that plot is everyone thinks they'll be in the third quartile.

jp57··on The End of Creativity
I don't think this is the death of creativity. It is just a new kind of non-creativity. He is comparing to a baseline of zero (or perhaps negative) creativity before AI.

Without AI, it's likely that neither of these videos would have been made, right? Five years ago, was it a normal thing for even one, much less two, groups of wedding guests to produce a video to show at a wedding, and if so, would the video even have been good? I mean actually good, not "it's the thought that counts, A-for-effort" good.

Isn't this like saying, "I decided to write a song for my friend's wedding, and I used AI to help me, and I played it and everyone liked it, and then someone else played the song that they had AI write for them, and it sounded just like mine, and everyone loved that too!"

Writing songs is something that's been around long enough, that if guests had made a habit of performing their original songs at weddings, even a graybeard like me would have experienced it. The baseline to compare to is no original songs were performed.

As it happens, in the weddings I've attended, I've heard exactly one such wedding song, and it was awful.

jp57··on My Mathematical Regression
I think one of the saddest thing is that the kind of person who would recognize, "we can solve this seemingly complicated problem by just applying this formula", would often have trouble even getting recognized in many corporate environments.

I managed a guy like that. He was capable of very complex thinking, but he wasn't in love with complexity, he was in love with simplicity. His solutions tended to be of the form, "we can ignore all these things, and just focus on X, and it will provide all the value." He'd notice something and simplify it and the benefit to the company would be measured in multiples of his salary.

Every manager who'd ever directly managed him knew what a treasure he was, but it was often hard for us to convince others of the value of his solutions because they were so simple, and people were convinced that hard problems must have complex solutions. (or else they would have solved them, right?)

He eventually got bored. He retired and joined a seminary.

jp57··on GrapheneOS has been ported to Android 17
What does it mean for an OS to be ported to another OS? Do they mean "ported to devices that support Android"?
jp57··on Feds freaked over Fable 5 after 'fix this code', not jailbreak, say researchers
I think this brings out the cognitive dissonance around "safety" regarding cyber security:

a) In order to make us safe, the LLM should help us find (and fix) the vulnerabilities in our own code.

b) In order for us to be safe, the LLM should not find vulnerabilities in other people's code.

I don't think this is resolvable in a way where both (a) and (b) win.

jp57··on A jacket that harvests drinking water from the air
Not specifically about drinking water or jackets, but I've often wondered why air-conditioning condensate is plumbed into the sewer instead of someplace useful. An A/C is a water-from-air device, and they run in much of the year in most homes in the southern US.

The typical design that I've seen plumbs the main condensate drain into the sewer, and usually has an overflow that dumps somewhere harmless if the main line clogs. (like out of the ceiling over the bathtub or out of an exterior wall in a visible location, so you can see it and fix it)

The few times I've seen the overflow, it's been quite a fair amount of water. Certainly enough to help with garden irrigation, if nothing else.

jp57··on You'll never guess who made the first wireless telephone
I think he could have gotten away with naming his daughter Photophone, but he would have to pronounce it as if she were a character from an ancient greek epic: phoTOphoNEE.
jp57··on Ask HN: What was your "oh shit" moment with GenAI?
It wasn’t wrong, though, in my case.
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