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jpdus

1,514 karma · joined May 9, 2011

Co-Founder of ellamind www.jph.me @jphme

[ my public key: https://keybase.io/jp1; my proof: https://keybase.io/jp1/sigs/ZZiSv1G2uoLjeeMNDDBw-peFrIGbj3lIPYOFFlTfxGo ]

submissionscomments
jpdus··on India should make more of a valuable asset abroad
It's probably because a large share of them work on ships(both, trade and passenger ships [1]) where unqualified workers often can earn slightly more. (I did not find a source on comparable wages, probably someone else has data on that...)

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filipino_seamen

jpdus··on Germans, still outraged by NSA spying, learn their country may have helped
Wow. May I ask how old you are?

I can't understand your sentiment at all, especially when posting as "bayesianhorse". Don't you have any desire to change "your" country for the better? Do you really think Merkel is responsible for Germany's economic situation and the politicians of CDU/SPD are doing a better job than everyone else could?

Preserving everything as is like our government and Merkel does (just like Adenauer said: "Bewahrt das Bewährte") might work in the short term thanks to the strong economy and Schröder's reforms, but the complete lack of any idea or strong opinion about future challenges - always coupled with the way of least resistance - will come back and bite us.

jpdus··on Show HN: Real Resume Examples from 1000s of Top Paid Professionals
I can't find any pricing details on your page before signing up - this is bad practice in my view. I won't invest time trying out your platform if I have no idea about costs.
jpdus··on Programming a Bot to Play the “Sushi Go Round” Flash Game
Can't find the original submission but the source[1] was already on HN 3 years ago.

[1]http://code.tutsplus.com/tutorials/how-to-build-a-python-bot...

jpdus··on Bitcoin and the double-spending problem (2013)
I agree. Mods/Op should add "(2013)" to the title to avoid confusion (but as others have pointed out, the article is not only old but wrong in important points).
jpdus··on Eric Schmidt's book is wrong about how Google works
This is just wrong. Android forks were never successful (see eg Amazon's fire phone) an will never be - the lock-in factor is incredible.

In the opposite direction, more and more customers want "pure" software and good hardware is increasingly available from many different manufacturers. Nokia arguably has made the best hardware and hardly sold any phones with WP because customers wanted Android. Google knows this and moves more and more parts from AOSP in its proprietary play framework because manufacturers are way more dependent on Android than Google is dependent on any single manufacturer (including Samsung).

jpdus··on The Unbalanced Design of Super Smash Bros
Normally one would expect the rankings to be more or less constant without any balancing, this is exactly the point of the article.

The shuffling indicates that new tactics/play styles are found and widely adopted (as well as preferences are shifting) over time. With rebalancing, the shuffling should be more or less random (or at least you would see a higher "volatility"). Without rebalancing most characters which were judged as strong stay strong but players perception for some characters changes with tactics etc.. It would be interesting to not just see the overall standings but some kind of "consensus" rating (which characters are rated similar and for which characters ratings are mixed).

By the way, your point also shows that SSBM has an extensive gameplay and is (if intended or not) well designed for competitive play - otherwise ratings should be more stable.

jpdus··on Stop Changing UIs for No Good Reason
Well, the new calendar app is ridiculously bad. You can't get back the old "normal" calender view, lots of screen space is wasted in every window and the 1-month overview now is totally useless without any indicators.

Compared to that, the new Gmail and Maps apps are almost good...

jpdus··on How Bayes Impact is reducing fraud for microfinance nonprofit Zidisha
Great job with Bayes Impact and thanks for the interesting post.

"So moving from a 20% fraud reduction to 50% will block about 200 additional fraudulent loans and also 200 honest loans. Is that okay?"

From the accompanying chart it looks more like ~700 additional honest loans blocked?

Any information about which threshold they picked? Looks like a difficult decision for a non-profit, from the chart it looks like about 15% of applications have been fraudsters but model accuracy is obviously limited given the available features.

jpdus··on The Space Shuttle’s Controversial Launch Abort Plan
Somewhat related and another great read - the detailed plan for a never-launched Columbia rescue mission (including a space shuttle rendezvous):

http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/02/the-audacious-rescue-...

jpdus··on Google Cloud Platform is 11 for 12 in World Cup predictions
But the explanation for the wrong Germany prediction seems a bit weak in my opinion. Shots/Shots on target should not be a single deciding feature - there are many other featurs which have an influence on "expected goals" and which may have been in Germany´s favor.

The high certainity before (69% France) seems a bit off, especially compared to the betting markets (c. 69% Germany). Additionally I wonder about the high probability for a win vs brasil now (even without incorporating the loss of Neymar and Thiago Silva) - did they do a recalibration or change the model?

I would love a bit more background, like in 538s excellent piece about Messi[0].

[0] http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lionel-messi-is-impossib...

jpdus··on Swiftkey Keyboard Android is now free
I cant understand whySwiftkey still cant learn from WhatsApp. They had such a big advantage in the mobile keyboard market and are going to loose it because of missing new communication channels...
jpdus··on Why I was forced to shut down Lavabit
As gbhn already mentioned, justice relies ultimately on human discretion. I can't judge about Levisons actions in the past - but this time, he did the right thing.

And yes, if I had the choice I would always choose the service which is run by people who respect the law but share my values and views and are ready to fight against questionable orders from authorities on behalf of their users.

jpdus··on Why I was forced to shut down Lavabit
Mostly I agree with your comments but this time you missed the most important fact: Levision HAD a choice and could have complied with everything like many others have done before - but he did not choose the easy way and instead jeopardized his professional and personal future by shutting down his company and commenting publicly.

Yes, there are good reasons for the authorities to demand personal information of criminals from service providers. But there is no reason at all that secret courts decide about these demands without anyone knowing or having the chance to question the legality and scale of data sniffing.

Ironically, without Snowden we all would have no idea what is going on behind the curtain.

Levison should be lauded for his courage (and despite all technical inaccuracies or open questions about the timeline you brought up)!

PS: I dont understand why this submission is already heavily penalized, this matters for most/all of us.

jpdus··on Massive network issues across Europe
Ah, thanks for the info.

Connections to our US broker failed at 10pm (dst) on different servers (based in Germany) and i had no idea why, I already wanted to blame our hosting provider.

jpdus··on HFT Quote Stuffing is a software bug
Nanex linked an interesting CS research piece[1] which also discusses other possible reasons for (malicious) quote stuffing including:

- walking others into the book,

- creating false midpoints and

- trying to cause stale pricing and slowing others down.

[1]http://de.scribd.com/doc/116761218/CS-HFT-DETECTION

jpdus··on Amazon WorkSpaces
How much bandwith is necessary to run their client per user?

I am thinking about travelling through south-east asia and/or africa for a few months, would this (in addition to ssh) be viable for working/freelancing from remote locations with throwaway hardware?

jpdus··on MH370 – what happened
This theory is not plausible as Malaysian authorities announced that primary radar returns suggest the plane turned SSW.[1] Additionally the airspace at the Chinese coast is most likely closely monitored 24/7.

Another good source for information/speculation is the Airliners Thread, currently at part 12: http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/re...

[1] http://www.frequentbusinesstraveler.com/2014/03/search-for-m...

jpdus··on Search on after Malaysia Airlines flight vanishes
Apparently an Italian passenger on the passenger list was in fact not on the plane[1] (and did not buy a ticket, passport was stolen), could be another sign for a terrorist background.

For more information/speculation the airliners thread[2] is also a good source.

[1]http://www.corriere.it/esteri/14_marzo_08/scomparso-aereo-di...

[2]http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/re...

jpdus··on US Media Blacks Out Snowden Interview
That's exactly what I thought after watching the interview and that's why it is so sad that most of the American public will never see it..
jpdus··on Why I don't trade stocks and (probably) neither should you
So you need [...] an unexplored statistical approach you know more about than most others.

I have one that I am trading profitably and for which I have written a scientific paper which could be published (i.e. I can reasonably explain why the approach works and nobody found it yet).

Still searching for an investor in that space to scale it up; if anyone has ideas or knows who could be interested in seeding such strategies i would be glad about a mail (see profile for contact).

jpdus··on Why I Canceled Amazon Prime
> You see, the problem with Amazon Prime is that you are shipping almost entirely via the USPS. Normally, I bet, in most of the country, this doesn't bode a single issue.

Nah, we have exactly the same problem here in Germany. I think that this will be one of the biggest challenges for Amazon in the coming years and can imagine them building their own delivery service for that reason.

jpdus··on Lifetimes of cryptographic hash functions
Can you explain why a 40 char text is 1000 times easier to crack than a 10 char password according to the graphic? Is it assumed you don't use any numbers/symbols and the attacker knows your dictionary?
jpdus··on Landsat 8 Data Now Available
everything you posted (except Tokyo) is satellite imagery only as far as i can see - so where is your point?
jpdus··on Coinlab files suit against MtGox
Without knowing the actual content of the agreement between Mt.Gox it is difficult to judge - but for me this seems like a shady move from coinlab. The loss calculation is laughable and this behaviour reminds me of patent trolls. (Not to mention that this case could hurt the whole Bitcoin ecosystem at the moment).

Another example that startups should not be too dependent on other companies.

Last update from the Coinlab website (4/10) [1]:

"On the lack-of-progress side, we're still waiting for two things to be implemented. Once those are done, we'll be ready to go.

Full customer data access Working wire and Dwolla withdrawal forms Because of Gox' strong customer data protection methodologies, we aren't allowed to deliver these things directly, they have to go through the Gox process, and that's taking longer than any of us want."

[1] http://coinlab.com/status

jpdus··on Mt. Gox under DDoS attack as bitcoin price surges
Does anyone had a withdrawal request processed by Mt.Gox during the last days?

I requested 2 withdrawals more than a week ago and didnt receive any funds nor do the requests show up in my account history...

jpdus··on Coursera course 'Fundamentals of Online Education' closed without warning
I took the Computational Investment class a few weeks ago (Form Georgia Tech too) and it suffered similar problems. Poorly prepared and no comparision to the great Stanford classes. I guess Coursera does not have a real QA department yet, but this will surely improve over time.
jpdus··on CBS Bans SodaStream Ad
I don't think that cost is the main reason for getting this product. It's just convenient to always have soda water here without having to carry it through the city.

I recently bought one for convenience reasons (after i learned about th glass caraves) and am totally happy with it - I guess as more (young) people in the bigger cities don't own a car (and only buy small quantities of food in the supermarket around the corner), more will use products like SodaStream.

jpdus··on Data-driven support
Do you have any plans to opensource this/put it on Github or do you regard it a trading secret?
jpdus··on Ask HN: What Software Did You Pay For In 2012
PyCharm (and even added another year during the doomsday sale)
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