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kwikiel

676 karma · joined December 18, 2014

:)
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kwikiel··on Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'
Usually the reverse problem is happening - company does pump its stock based on potentially having their drug accepted but it’s usually the case that it will be rejected - but you don’t k ow that for sure for many years - prediction market may help here
kwikiel··on Qwen3.8-Max: A New Bar for Coding and Cowork
Teaching model to code in say python does indeed increase its effectiveness in other seemingly unrelated areas. On the other hand I remember that early models of ChatGPT were great in chess notation and later models aren’t as good as OpenAI doesn’t prioritize this now
kwikiel··on After two years of vibecoding, I'm back to writing by hand
Wondering why the obvious solution isn’t applied here - instead of giving already well known problems that have been solved thousand times give students open research opportunities- stuff which is on the edge of being possible, no way to cheat with Ai. And if Ai is able to solve those - give harder tasks
kwikiel··on Cold-blooded software (2023)
Made this mistake years ago: figured I’d just throw it in a Docker with Python 2.7, problem solved. 8 years later nothing builds anymore. Base images gone, dependencies don’t resolve. Turns out containers don’t actually freeze time, they just delay the pain.
kwikiel··on Mistral OCR 3
That’s just the illustration. But this is misleading - I will fix it asap and show real examples. I’ve run the mistral ocr on other benchmark
kwikiel··on Head in the Zed Cloud
I wish Zed would implement support for Jupyter notebooks first. Maybe this sounds like a thing I can contribute
kwikiel··on OpenAI and Anthropic Revenue Breakdown
If you assume that the costs of inference would continue to decrease while they would be able to get billion people hooked on 42 per dollar plan..

That’s $0.5 trillion revenue rate

kwikiel··on We don't trade with ants and why hypothetical AI:s won't, either (2023)
We kind of actually trade with ants - in some forests there are structures for them and we build wooden structures to protect them, in exchange for them keeping the ecosystem safe from rotting animals and kind of cleaning / rotating biomass
kwikiel··on Show HN: Speeding up LLM inference 2x times (possibly)
Will share python implementation soon as a kind of executable pseudo code which then can be ported to any platform.

This project is kind of like ultimate nerdsnipe as math is quite simple, you don’t need PhD to understand it and actually implementing things would teach you linear algebra faster vs just mindlessly doing exercises sets.

kwikiel··on Ask HN: Why aren't all heaters computers?
This rule is very wrong for the things like an iPhone which while expensive won’t be using a lot of electricity in its lifetime
kwikiel··on Steve Wozniak used to tip from printed sheets of $2 bills
Seems like you can still buy sheets like that: https://catalog.usmint.gov/2-four-note-sheet-B9491.html?cgid...
kwikiel··on Ask HN: What's an app or business you wish somebody else would build?
Software compensation for non uniform screen brightness issues ( for example software fix for Apple flexgate )
kwikiel··on Ask HN: What website, from your early days on the net, do you miss?
Simple purple website: purple.com

// Now it's unfortunately taken by mattress company

kwikiel··on Ask HN: What are your favorite low-coding apps / tools as a developer?
I've created a tool to flatten and turn any JSON api endpoint into time series chart without any configuration ( it just works ) - I was looking for something similar in the market but never found anything that allowed for 0 config

https://temporals.herokuapp.com/

kwikiel··on DHH: Open-Source Beyond the Market
"I think it’s why so many startups in technology are so eager to boast about how serious and important their mission is. Even if it’s evidently not so. They’re trying to counterweight and compensate for the actual loss of meaning and purpose that a lot of us suffer under either periodically or chronically.

“We’re on a mission to unleash the world’s creative energy by designing a more enlightened way of working” – Dropbox

For fuck’s sake, Dropbox. You host files. You make the files appear on all my computers.

I like Dropbox. I use Dropbox. I PAY FOR DROPBOX. But it is not “unleashing” my “creativity” in any meaningful sense of either of those words. It stores my files. It’s literally a filing company.

Do you think filing cabinet companies of yesteryear bragged about unleashing the creative capacity of the whole fucking world? Of course they didn’t! That would have gotten you laughed out of church.

"

kwikiel··on Sam Altman’s leap of faith
https://idlewords.com/talks/superintelligence.htm

"AI risk is string theory for computer programmers. It's fun to think about, interesting, and completely inaccessible to experiment given our current technology. You can build crystal palaces of thought, working from first principles, then climb up inside them and pull the ladder up behind you.

People who can reach preposterous conclusions from a long chain of abstract reasoning, and feel confident in their truth, are the wrong people to be running a culture."

kwikiel··on Seven databases in seven weeks (2014)
Great book with the same title: https://pragprog.com/book/rwdata/seven-databases-in-seven-we...

Explains different approaches / benefits and drawbacks

kwikiel··on A16Z is re-registering as a financial advisor, renouncing its status as a VC
Blockchains are essentially paperclip optimiser machines.

For bitcoin - paperclips are PoW hashrate.

The network rewards people that contribute to it's growth.

It doesn't care about people and people values - it's like a new kind of living organism that uses people as substrate to exist

kwikiel··on React Native: All-in-One Guide for CEOs and Product Owners
I wonder how much there is actual difference for React Native vs Native. With better and better phone components development speed / ability to test / debug will become more important then being close to the metal.
kwikiel··on Ahead of IPO, Airbnb achieves profitability for second year in a row
Airbnb actually disrupted them https://growthhackers.com/growth-studies/airbnb
kwikiel··on Amazon Is Kicking All Unauthorized Apple Refurbishers Off Amazon Marketplace
Secondary market is creating downward pressure on prices - Apple cannot sell iPhone XR for $999 when one can get used iPhone X for less.

Assuming that Apple products would be used for a long time - it's hard for them to sell more new devices when supply of old ones that are 100% functional is increasing and increasing. For regular internet browsing use CPU from 2012+ isn't that much different from new one

kwikiel··on Coinbase Index Fund
This design will allow Coinbase for adding some tokens they like and profit immensely from large retail base of investors investing passively in anything that Coinbase will list - becoming de-facto token curation network
kwikiel··on How would you sell (shares of) a painting via cryptocurrency?
There is a startup that was doing similar thing:

https://medium.com/@trivial.co/we-could-have-had-it-all-but-...

kwikiel··on MakerDAO’s “DAI” stablecoin is breaking, as predicted
In this thread cryptocurrency community will rediscover banking and money.

We have stablecoins or tethers (manny attempts to create something people want) - people want some form of money for peer to peer value transfer, that will allow arbitrage between exchanges and connection to "real world" as almost nobody is pricing their services in ethereum/bitcoin.

Let's say we have 3 competing stablecoins and Gresham's law will apply = people will be moving to "best" coin and leaving others holding bad ones. Imagine that you have 2 banks - one with good reputation and large reserves and second one - almost without them, yet both will be issuing private money redeemable for each other. So how come one can attract customers to his specific stablecoins solution? By offering interest rate - a stablecoin that pays dividend will be better than stablecoin without it.

It's complicated - ideologically stablecoins are similar to economical perpetuum mobile devices, yet the first are impossible due to laws of physics and second one may work because economy depends on human behaviour and humans may act irrationally.

kwikiel··on Bitcoin Bubble Makes Dot-Com Look Rational
Network effect - same thing for Facebook. The more valuable bitcoin is the more secure and more resilient. Thus purely by price appreciation bitcoin is doing hiperbitcoinization - once people realize that fundamental value of fiat currency is a myth, more fiat currencies will collapse
kwikiel··on The Entrepreneur's Roadmap – From Concept to IPO
Because the threat is real - by projects like https://neufund.org/

Ability to get access to liquidity and financing is game changer for some industries and separates startup hubs from other usual cities.

Imagine that instead of getting through bankers underwriting IPO's you can do same thing in the form of token as equity. It's currently not compatible with Howey Test since equity tokens are obviously a security - but once one sensible country will adapt reasonable regulations towards cryptocurrencies and equity tokens NYSE and VCs may be distrupted - and free market, althou still regulated can produce multiple productivity improvements via removing such frictions.

kwikiel··on Importance of “working out” math in school for a programmer
Project Euler is like weightlifting for your brain. And don't think that computer is so fats that you just bruteforce the answer. Some problems are computationally expensive so naive solution will take you too much time and you will need to think about more clever solution.
kwikiel··on How many people are in space right now
"You promised me Mars Colonies. Instead, I got Facebook."
kwikiel··on South Korea bans raising money through initial coin offerings
Ethereum had an ICO, first bitcoins were aquired in mining, there was no ICO/premine
kwikiel··on Ask HN: Meeting with acquirer / competitor. How much tech to disclose?
none
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