lanthissa

so it doesn't get blocked. last time they said a model was great at cyber it didnt turn out well

the only people its relevant for is the people in first. We wont know what any other state would do until someone passes the us, if that happens.

it sucks that we're in a place where the us has an dishonest leadership, because the current situation would be pretty reasonable if any other admin was in charge.

let models go free, until one proves dangerous in the real world then require gov approval after that.

I don't think anyone rational would have the position everyone should have insta access at the same time to the highest model once it crosses the point of enabling actual dangerous things.

why would it? if you're the us gov and sam&greg your good boy giving you 25m

and dario's you naughty boy who you dont agree with politically.

Let 5.6 free, keep fable chained and anthropic instantly sees rev loss and has to cave.

3 months ago "mac mini, neo, and air prices are to good to be true"

and then the monkeys paw curled

The person who wrote this was was closer in time to the technology that was able to unwind and read burned fragments of their text, than the technology that build the pyramids. pretty wild to think about.

AI is the first technology that doesn't incentivize offshoring, and incentivizes co-location of talent.

A NYC dev and a dev in india have the same ai costs, based the ratio tokens/salary it becomes less of comparative disadvantage to be in NYC.

Now combine that with the fact that AI makes the act of generating code less a % time of the job, and the ability to get/refine requirements more of the job and you have a decent shift.

in nyc any car based transportation is slower than subways often, but everyones so narrow minded they just think about their own life. if you're old in nyc cabs/ubers/waymo are a big deal, without them you're stuck walking to a bus stop or subway and that gets hard in your 70s and 80s.

did they not pay them enough to get good ratings on the other 3 models?

whats the logic in claiming its a borked metric when everything listed is an anthropic model.

the marketcap represents the cashflow estimated by the market to be taken out of the business over the lifetime of the company discounted today.

your suggestion makes no sense

opus to produce workflows, flash 3.5 to do them.

Chinese models prob work too, but idk since i cant use them at work

yeah where i work has been at $150 a week with a pretty generous over ride if you ask.

people self limit when there are caps. if you give people unlimited they wont even use sonnet easy things.

yes? the future for any verifiable task is the model attempts to verify initial state and a goal then decomposes its tasks in to every smaller verifiable subtasks, with /memory being the persistence between runs and then /dreaming on the results of those memory files + run data to introduce new ideas.

i think thats the path to async agi these labs are imagining. The only limit is that sensor data you have on the world or your system, how long your willing to wait, and how much you're willing to spend to parallelize it.

maybe once you start building out these verified workflows you can feed that back into training and hte model starts to get a feel for the world to the point that it can intuit things since it has these sub paths built.

my personal agi test is can a model, trained on video of someone knocking on a door and then open it encounter a microwave for the first time and open it when the foods done without knocking.

i used to use opus for everything, thats not an option once you move to a multi agent system unless you're working on like high end research. I could easily spend 3k a day if i was using opus as just a normal dev.

As we build a better and better harness and better feedback/verifiers we're switching more to 3.5 flash. I think chinese models would work too, but we cant use those atm.

Generally theres a coordinator running opus and an ever growing set of skills and subagents that take actions using weaker models and output feedback to the coordinator opus.

I'm pretty convinced at this point we're past the level of intelligence needed for most tasks most devs do and that will trend down as we better build harnesses for our own codebases.

this is the finance team doing a fantastic job. keep in mind they're raising this cash right before 3 major ipos in their sector which people will need to raise money for and will fight against htem in the narrative.

If i was a google cfo and was trading at a premium to my peers before that, i'd want to raise the cash now. Look at MSFT, they're trading at 25 forward p/e and were buying back shares at 40. If they have to issue equity over the next few years the spread between teh performance of the 2 cfos could be 40-50b on that alone.

Just as a google shareholder, this company bought back shares hand over fist at a low p/e for a few years, issues 100 year debt at low rates, and is selling equity when its at a premium to its peers right before 2-3 major ipos of competitors put selling pressure on the stock for a while.

I don't know who's going to win the llm battle, but googles finance team has been doing their job fantastically.

flash 3.5 is the best price/performance model for what i'm doing. I had been using opus for everything but as we started running many agents at once, and then eventually agent managing sub agents frontier is not an option.

we started model testing the cost/performance of our skills and agents and flash 3.5 wins in most things.

As people develop harnesses for their codebase i think the intelligence required comes down a lot.

if you want to personally manage your risk you can by taking a small short position or buying long dated puts.

It being in the public markets is something you can deal with if you want.

It being in private markets means you cannot choose to participate in the upside if you want.

you cant have it both ways, the public can either have exposure and capture the upside or not.

there are ways for you to manage your risk if it in public markets, theres nothing you can do if its in private.

my stance is coming from working at one of the soggiest banks and having access to 3 with 2 more coming, and knowing the same is true at 2 of our large competitors.

mistral was never competitive and is getting less so, but that doesn't matter they cant be allowed to fail and have a long time to find their lane. They're smart and have an audience of like 600m people and the largest governments by spending who would use them if they were good enough.

no it really not, even the soggiest bank has multiple api vendors atm.

switching models is insanely cheap compared to token cost on anything signficant, this is a take so cynical it misses the reality

shouldn't typed code that uses functional style be kinda the perfect end game for llms? You can parallelize generation at any granularity, easily ring fence changes, reproduce everything, types give clues to the llm.

yeah people have been talking about this for a few weeks. Spacex is the only unallocated nvidia gpu's on earth, anthropic is going through a crisis due to lack of compute.

It would have been a huge black mark on the record of both if they couldn't manage to put the deal together.

every tpu thats been made is in use and sold at a high margin, demand is not the issue.

there are literally not enough tpu's on earth for them to break out, every tpu thats been made is in use, the spike in demand is recent and google has heavy competition for foundry space.

Googles giving them something thats a lot more scares to them then dollars, large volumes of chips quickly.

If you gave anthropic 10b cash they couldn't get chips in the 0-6mo timeframe at scale. Anthropic is suffering reputational damage due to choices they have to make around capacity constraints.

Google, AWS, and Azure are the only people who can help them so they hold the cards, thus the good terms.

googles multiple businesses and gemini isn't the largest one.

anthropic is the anchor external customer of tpu's and nvidia is worth more than all of google. If tpu's actually breakout as a viable alternative over the next few years for multiple clients the business could easily be worth as much as search, maybe more.

for all the drama, its pretty clear both openai, google, and anthropic have had to degrade some of their products because of a lack of supply.

There's really no immediate solution to this other than letting the price float or limiting users as capacity is built out this gets better.

not really, china has gone domestic for everything as soon as it could.

its naive to think they would have stayed on a 'western' stack.

Most of the time 'losing' isn't making a bad choice its being put in a situation where you have no good choices.