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lanthissa

437 karma · joined January 7, 2016

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lanthissa··on Google Search is now less than half of Alphabet’s revenue
what ball? they're spending 100% of cashflow, taking out debt, and issuing stock. so they're not conservative on capital investment, they're growing at 103%.

You cant: 1) win the personal agent (requires a vm for every user) 2) win cloud sales (requires selling your compute) 3) win model war (requires using your compute) 4) win the chip war (requires selling your tpu's themselvs)

Weirdly enough their issue is they're to small to fight every battle, MSFT+Nvidia+Meta+Oai+oracle is like 14T in market cap.

lanthissa··on I went to Mexico to test-drive the cars Americans can’t buy
lumping those all together is missing half the point, ng in at least in the us where its a by product of oil extraction is a huge step up from coal/oil and will be with us for a very long time
lanthissa··on Gemini 4 Argon
this is why antigravity is a doomed product at a pro level.

they gave away so much pro that they need to have smaller usage levels than competitors or they'll lose a ton of money. $20 was already a loss for users actually using their quota. the majority of pro users are paying far less than that.

so they'll lose their paying users, and keep their free or subsudized, which will make the economics even worse.

lanthissa··on Carnegie Mellon University Announces Historic $3B Gift from Ken Griffin
net net, 3 billion dollars is going out of of a rich persons pocket and into education.

thats a good thing.

also a cmu grad claiming the morality of the money going into education and naming rights matter is hilarious.

both its founders were worse than ken, and again at least hte money went to something good.

lanthissa··on Gemini 4 Argon
deepswe vs frontierswe spread is huge.

I think that should be a really bad sign, but hope its great.

lanthissa··on Claude Sonnet 5.5
cutting edge fable is for them not you and they're not going to share the metrics until they give you access.
lanthissa··on Google’s Project Suncatcher to put ML infrastructure in space
icbms and hypersonics exist, theres no defense against the top end anywhere atm.

if you're in a war where people are shooting your satellites out of the sky you're past the point where defenses matter. theres no grey war in space like russia hiring people to blow up stuff in europe and very few states could take out multiple satellites in space.

beyond that if we ever did get to that point, you could develop anti missile tech in space, you effectively have the high ground sitting at the top of the gravity well.

lanthissa··on On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem
5 million messages, 300b output tokens, done in 5 days, and achieving something humans couldn't.

the first "Country of geniuses in a datacenter" moment.

lanthissa··on On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem
over 5 days, you couldn't achieve that level of testing and communication with humans on such a complex problem in that amount of time.

some might go so far as to call this a country of geniuses in a data center.

lanthissa··on Grok 4.6
this is exactly whats happening. Its funny having lived through this with snap dragons and phones.

Everyones hyped about the branded phone, but it was the chip that mattered and how fast you rushed a product out after you got it.

Sames true now, except size of training run is also a factor.

lanthissa··on Grok 4.6
what we're going through is the same thing as smartphones, the limiter is compute.

it used to be snapdragon came out HTC rushed out a janky phone everyone went omg htc is goat, then in the next few weeks and months others would impliment better versions and people would not notice those as much, finally sony would release a polished phone right as the next snapdragon cycle came.

eventually compute gains leveled off and apple won on taste.

nvidia/tpu is the new snapdragon. Anthropic and google both peaked on the first training run on a new tpu cycle.

you should expect amazing things within a few months of each other from everyone with access to chips and willingness to use them on a training run.

We haven't seen willingness from google to do that. So its currently xai,oai,anthropic, and probably soon meta.

lanthissa··on Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots
if all it could do was operate a lawn mower and a shovel, the annual value to a homeowner in the north east is ~1-2k depending on lawn size assuming they value their free time at the same amount as their hourly wage.

what you have to keep in mind is homeowners salary is way above avg salary so anything you can do to effect them has a much larger impact than it would seem at first.

lanthissa··on Gemini 3.6 Flash, 3.5 Flash-Lite, and 3.5 Flash Cyber
they're subsidized if you max them out, i'd imagine most users are paying $20 for maybe $2-5 of tokens.

anthropic probably has more customers that use more of their sub, but for open ai where a lot of their subs are consumers through chatgpt.com, they have a lot of free money to work with there

lanthissa··on Gemini 3.6 Flash, 3.5 Flash-Lite, and 3.5 Flash Cyber
i mean eventually then will, losing means open source, vertically integrated hardware means you can opensource and win on cost
lanthissa··on Gemini 3.6 Flash
at least openai had the guts to call code red and improve.

releasing a model worse than luna is pretty bad. Its clear that internally they did not decide coding was a thing until relatively recently.

lanthissa··on Grok Build is open source
pi is the neovim of agentic harnesses, its barebones and extremely configurable. if you're the sort of person who likes that sort of things its a forever product, nothing is going to displace it because you have full control.

opencode builds a lot more in, which is better if you dont want to fiddle with config.

lanthissa··on Claude Code sends 33k tokens before reading the prompt; OpenCode sends 7k
the amount of system prompt wastage going on in orgs is insane. we identified 400k in annual burn for zero value in just one section of our large company.

and the interesting thing about system prompt wastage is its a cost that scales non linearly with subagent use.

lanthissa··on Good Tools Are Invisible
it really depends on the framing, some work, especially fun work that develops skills is more valuable than people realize.

From an org perspective the goal is to create the highest curve of performance over the lifetime engagement of the employee or from the employee perspective their career.

And a lot of that depends on teh relationship of the people involved. From my perspective its a net negative when if my movers worked out the day before, their muscles will be sore and they'll do a worse or slower job. From the moving companies perspective its good, they'll be stronger for more jobs. Unless they quit or are fired that day, in which case we're back to bad.

The real evaluation isn't the macro vs the sublime edit. its does the thought process of making them macro improve them in other things, and what were they doing before that. In my experience no one is going use the time they spent writing a macro or a learning vim to do real meaningful work, they're doing that because they're bored or burned out and want to think about something else they find fun at the time.

your problem isn't your employees choose to write random scripts, its that they dont have a sense of urgency or care about their current task.

lanthissa··on Europe's company websites are mostly served by US vendors
EU companies own like 20% of EU compute, and a huge portion of that was from a russian asset being spun out.
lanthissa··on Costco is the anti-Amazon
i mean its a value exchange, the last mile matters a ton to the consumer, the value prop the average person gets from amazon vs shopping in 2000 is insane and scales up the more valuable your time is.

Not only are prices good, but if i lose my remote or need a shovel for the winter or whatever in 2000 im going to a store for that, that 15m of my time each way+parking+less choice.

Lets say i make $50 an hour, and lets say i value my free time at my working rate (i'd argue most people by definition value it more or they'd be working more hours).

Saving me 10m in the store 15m of driving both ways and 2-3m of transit is worth more than most items i purchase.

Amazons solved the last mile problem by having one vehicle bring each item to each home so its marginal cost of delivery is the distance between each home instead of the round trip between home and return that a customer has.

The more items you buy at one store the less valuable this is, which is part of why costco is well served by having such large product sizes.

lanthissa··on PeerTube is a free, decentralized and federated video platform
demonization has nothing to do with viewers value from youtube you just have been radicalized to inject talking points into every single conversation.
lanthissa··on PeerTube is a free, decentralized and federated video platform
the 3rd party isn't an intermediary, youtube content is fantastic because it found a way to pay people to produce something for every niche, and reward the ones doing well with more viewers and more money.

ofc you would prefer high quality content delivered directly to you for free, because you're ignore the producers perspective.

lanthissa··on PeerTube is a free, decentralized and federated video platform
long term he doesn't want his own distribution though. youtube offers you new viewers constantly. peertube only makes sense if it has a viewerbase and an ad network, and at hte point we're back to google but they're going to pay more since they have a larger user base and more ads which means their monetization rate is going to be much higher.

disrupting youtube is super hard, you basically need to bring your own audience from something else to do it, or have a platform already existing that you expand into the us.

lanthissa··on PeerTube is a free, decentralized and federated video platform
this is exactly right, people dont realize that they're getting a great deal on youtube. if you want to disrupt youtube you need to do it by winning over the creators which is a difficult thing to do since no new platform can subsidize to the scale of what youtube offers already due to its size, the only ones who really could are meta since they have the ad network and users already to funnel to it, or another company willing to eat a loss for a long time. The issue with eating hte loss, is video is a pretty painful loss to eat compared to text, so why not go into every text market first for places like meta.
lanthissa··on Kimi K2.7 Code is generally available in GitHub Copilot
i can tell claude to call haiku or sonnet.

in copilot i can could pass all my automated browser testing to 3.5 flash, could use dirt cheap models for simple tool that were better than claude.

i'd just use open router but @work we only have copilot and claude

lanthissa··on Kimi K2.7 Code is generally available in GitHub Copilot
i ran out of claude credits for the first time at work in months and had to fallback to copilot.

pleasantly surprised, claude's way ahead in tooling but the ability to designate what model your subagents use and having access to all models is a better feature than all of what claude offers combine atm.

The only limit on the amount of ai can consume in a month a work is dollars, so anything that helps with cost is the best model/harness for me.

It also did a better job at smart designating subagents itself where as claude often used higher cost models.

lanthissa··on Claude Sonnet 5
so it doesn't get blocked. last time they said a model was great at cyber it didnt turn out well
lanthissa··on U.S. government will decide who gets to use GPT-5.6
the only people its relevant for is the people in first. We wont know what any other state would do until someone passes the us, if that happens.

it sucks that we're in a place where the us has an dishonest leadership, because the current situation would be pretty reasonable if any other admin was in charge.

let models go free, until one proves dangerous in the real world then require gov approval after that.

I don't think anyone rational would have the position everyone should have insta access at the same time to the highest model once it crosses the point of enabling actual dangerous things.

lanthissa··on Previewing GPT‑5.6 Sol: a next-generation model
why would it? if you're the us gov and sam&greg your good boy giving you 25m

and dario's you naughty boy who you dont agree with politically.

Let 5.6 free, keep fable chained and anthropic instantly sees rev loss and has to cave.

lanthissa··on Apple raises prices of MacBooks, iPads
3 months ago "mac mini, neo, and air prices are to good to be true"

and then the monkeys paw curled

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