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lucaspm98

308 karma · joined June 12, 2017

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lucaspm98··on Wealth Inequality in America drawn to scale
Any normal person can implement the same strategy in any brokerage account.

Regardless, if that's the actual anti-social behavior we should change that tax treatment specifically, versus a broad paper wealth tax with unintended consequences.

lucaspm98··on Wealth Inequality in America drawn to scale
This is a low effort strawman.
lucaspm98··on Wealth Inequality in America drawn to scale
We are almost indisputably the most prosperous ever, especially if you index against countries who have taken the approach of preventing or punishing success (UK, France).
lucaspm98··on Disney Raising Prices Days After Confirming Ads Will Now Show Up on Every Tier
The primary issue is that many people prepaid for a year of Prime, which included ad-free streaming, and that ad-free service was changed mid-contract. I’d have no problem if the included streaming tier or overall price was changed at renewal.
lucaspm98··on Florida's HOAs and condo associations are making the housing crisis worse
Every HOA-ran pool I’m aware of has a gate with keys or key fobs to prevent non-residents from access. From a liability perspective this system would be a requirement in many areas unless only open with a lifeguard present.
lucaspm98··on Florida's HOAs and condo associations are making the housing crisis worse
That’s a condo association, which has different regulations. Both are foreclosing on properties.
lucaspm98··on California closed the Montana license plate loophole
That’s a meaningless data point without a comparison to a state with similar weather, nature, and economic momentum from a time less onerously regulated.
lucaspm98··on California is chasing wealth that has feet
It may not be logical, but money effectively turns into a scoreboard at a certain point. The ultra-wealthy care whether they show up to the yacht club in a 100m or 150m yacht.

That individuals won’t optimize their wealth beyond $100m, $1b, or really any number just doesn’t square with observable behavior.

lucaspm98··on Disney+: New user agreement allows ads before movies in all subscriptions
YouTube sponsor segments are not subtle “place a Coke can facing the camera” integrations. They are dedicated ad segments with scripted (typically by the advertiser) promotions, often entirely unrelated to the video or channel.

To the end user they are indistinguishable from other video ads on the platform except the ad read is often (not always) done by the creator.

I don’t have hard data on the ratio but it’s not uncommon for a 10 minute video to have 1-2 minutes of full-interrupt ad segments embedded in the video.

lucaspm98··on Border agents can search cellphones without a warrant or reasonable suspicion
It’s hard to find an authoritative source with perfect data but it seems unanimous the US is in the bottom quintile in terms of share of GDP from tourism.

Almost all countries below the US have much more immediate concerns about physical safety.

lucaspm98··on Stop Flock
Having this surveillance done by human beings rate limits the process to, in theory, focus it on actual criminals. Requiring warrants for the more invasive and persistent techniques adds another layer of accountability.
lucaspm98··on Stop Flock
Every entrance to my neighborhood has a Flock camera from my local police department. Tracking the exact time I enter and leave my home is at the very least right at this line you’re trying to draw.
lucaspm98··on Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts
Publications must love they can now pump out an article every time someone creates a new account to place a large wager on a prediction market.

Having been a semi-pro sports bettor for a short stint as it went through legalization in the U.S., I’ve personally had tens of thousands wagered on sports teams I’ve never heard of before. Over the course of thousands of bets it becomes statistically inevitable that you have wagers placed right before major news (both for and against you).

It’s even entirely possible this individual has some or all their position hedged on another platform effectively capture a tiny arbitrage in the market.

There’s tons of upstart market makers on these prediction markets doing hundreds of thousands in volume a week as they provide liquidity, grinding out small edges in a way you’d never be able to know their true exposure to any one market across platforms.

It’s of course entirely possible this is an insider, but as a journalist you need something more than a large bet + good timing. Out of millions of wagers there will inevitably be plenty of random people who bet on a football game 5 minutes before the quarterback gets injured purely out of dumb luck.

lucaspm98··on Hollywood Enters Oscars Weekend in Existential Crisis
People are living in entirely different cost of living realities outside of NYC and the Bay Area.

Within 5 miles of me with 2 adults and 2 kids and $100, you could go to a trampoline park, ropes course, bowling, hours at an arcade, water park, race go-karts, several months of pool membership, or 5+ museums. Possibly 2 of those activities.

For free there’s dozens of playgrounds, courts and fields for any sport, community and religious-sponsored events, and after you can get a nice sit down meal with money leftover from your $100 budget.

$100 would be above many families entire entertainment budget for a week.

lucaspm98··on NIMBYs aren't just shutting down housing
Are you suggesting libertarians believe the government should not build infrastructure?

I realize libertarians by nature have unique viewpoints but that feels like a bit of a mischaracterization. In general libertarians support a smaller government that increases focu on areas where societal collaboration is strictly necessary like roads, police, and firefighters while by default opposing government involvement in other areas beyond baseline rule of law (like NIMBY zoning).

lucaspm98··on If you tax them, will they leave?
Sure this seems to have worked in high-trust homogenous society with similar values and goals. They have a very high baseline of wealth given abundant natural resources that'd need active mismanagement to not have a strong economy.

Extending their taxation or economic system to a larger, more populous, diverse, and economically fractured society would lose most of the reasons they're succeeding.

lucaspm98··on If you tax them, will they leave?
The correlation between higher state and local taxes (beyond some reasonable baseline) and improved public service is tenuous at best in much of the US.

I'm happy to concede Massachusetts may very well have found the right balance, but there's plenty of studies on this in aggregate.

There's unsurprisingly a modest but statistically significant migration of millionaires from high-tax to low-tax jurisdictions.

https://www.asanet.org/wp-content/uploads/attach/journals/ju...

lucaspm98··on If you tax them, will they leave?
There's plenty of studies on this. There's unsurprisingly a modest but statistically significant migration of millionaires from high-tax to low-tax jurisdictions.

https://www.asanet.org/wp-content/uploads/attach/journals/ju...

lucaspm98··on If you tax them, will they leave?
Of course the number of millionaires has grown on an absolute basis given inflation and the strong stock market.

To control for this look at NYC's share of the nation's millionaires, which shrank from 6.5% in 2010 to 4.2% in 2022.

https://cbcny.org/research/hidden-cost-new-yorks-shrinking-m...

lucaspm98··on If you tax them, will they leave?
Taxes are often used as either incentives or disincentives for certain behaviors. Examples of incentives are the Child and Dependent Care Credit and EV Tax Credits. An example of a disincentive is a Mansion Tax.
lucaspm98··on Network of Scottish X accounts go dark amid Iran blackout
The reason political discussion needs to be limited is exactly for comments like these. Low effort characterizations of mainstream politics as racist or fascist is purely inflammatory, and only going to further turn HN into Reddit but for tech.
lucaspm98··on Network of Scottish X accounts go dark amid Iran blackout
“Radicalization” to the OP likely means swinging from vaguely left-leaning to right-leaning.
lucaspm98··on New Nationwide Campaign to Stop Warrantless Use of License Plate Reader Cameras
I recently discovered the local police department had installed Flock cameras at every entrance to my quiet suburban neighborhood. I now cannot come or go from my own home without warrantless tracking of my movement.

In anecdotal conversations with neighbors I was absolutely shocked they were relatively indifferent. It looks like I’m going to have to move to have basic privacy and safety if these campaigns aren’t quickly successful.

lucaspm98··on Top Colleges Are Too Costly Even for Parents Making $300k
$300k a year is rich in 99% of the world and 90%+ of the U.S.

However, jobs that pay $300k vastly over-index to a few coastal major metros, where $300k a year is at the lower end of ever being able to own even a condo within a reasonable commute.

lucaspm98··on $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
Do you have anything that ties together this trade with those investors?

Anyone who held equities that day were up 6-7%, so many billionaires were up that much or more without touching their holdings.

lucaspm98··on $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
Everyone is jumping to conclusions. The majority of comments on this thread are assuming this is at least someone with inside knowledge, and several are saying Trump or his administration are directly involved.
lucaspm98··on Ten Rules for Negotiating a Job Offer
I agree with you within the scope of top tech jobs. The tech interviews process is fairly uniquely grueling because it's both very high paid (so a costly mistake to hire poorly) while lacking much professional certification.

In many other careers the interview process is, if not shorter, at least more behavioral and less mentally draining because you're already pre-screened by licensure or rigid advancement structure of some sort.

lucaspm98··on Supply constraints do not explain house price, quantity growth across US cities
As I understand it the "liberal hive mind" believes the exact opposite - that some bogeyman, typically either corporations or foreign investors, prevent functional supply and demand dynamics. Therefore they don't support a free market, typically more right-leaning, solution of deregulation and relaxed zoning restrictions.
lucaspm98··on You Will Never Retire
Okay, let's assume we take every last dollar from every billionaire in the U.S. regardless of the legality, feasibility, or morality. We now have $5.5 trillion dollars.

This would more than double the current $4.2 trillion in funds and extend the runway to bankruptcy ~10 years. That's not nothing, but it's a move you can only place once as no one with any chance of being impacted would stay around.

lucaspm98··on Europe is in danger of regulating its tech market out of existence
I don't agree with the exaggeration in the parent comment, but your one counter-example pivoted their workforce expansion to the US after openly criticizing Sweden's business environment. They took issue with the shortage of employee housing due to over-regulated planning restrictions, unfavorable taxation of stock options, and a lack of programming and development education. Those issues (less so education) are applicable throughout the majority of the EU.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/spotify-founders-blast-swedens-...

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