luckyjajj

I don’t know offhand what the price of beef is generally these days (I am a vegetarian).

Generally speaking, capital and commerce steer towards efficiency. Goods from Australia will always be “less efficient” than goods crossing between Canada and the USA and Mexico due to geography.

The only way to make up for that difference is if goods are dramatically cheaper to produce (i.e China) to make up for the geographical barriers.

While it may work for beef, it can’t work for everything. So, Canada is generally stuck with the USA until it can find ways to export/import efficiently from other countries, and some things, like produce, can never work.

Expectation is that Canada should have a balanced trade with the USA. The reality is that Canada will always have a trade deficit because of oil exports to the USA, especially now when the USA needs it the most.

That is the ironic part.

Won’t work out well for either side, namely citizens and leadership aside.

Wearing my forecasting hat…

Canada holding $200 billion in USA treasuries, one of the largest exporters of oil into the USA, and integrated supply chains for everyday goods. A fast and painful price shock is coming for every average American.

Canada has and will continue to be very dependent on the USA. No amount of new trade partners can change the fact that the largest economy in the world is a 2-hour trip down the road while everyone else is an ocean apart. This has a risk for long-term price pain for decades.

Ironically Canada’s trade deficit with the USA is largely due to our oil exports.

Remove that the trade is fairly balanced.