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mathattack

18,587 karma · joined August 10, 2011

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mathattack··on Guess I'm a rationalist now
Logic is an awesome tool that took us from Greek philosophers to the gates on our computers. The challenge with pure rationalism is checking the first principles that the thinking comes from. Logic can lead you astray if the principles are wrong, or you miss the complexity along the way.

On the missing first principles, look at Aristotle. One of the history's greatest logicians came to many false conclusions.

On missing complexity, note that Natural Selection came from empirical analysis rather than first principles thinking. (It could have come from the latter, but was too complex) [1]

This doesn't discount logic, it just highlights that answers should always come with provisional humility.

And I'm still a superfan of Scott Aaronson.

[0] https://www.wired.com/story/aristotle-was-wrong-very-wrong-b...

[1] https://www.jstor.org/stable/2400494

mathattack··on Is there a half-life for the success rates of AI agents?
It may be doing the wrong thing like an employee, but at least it's doing it automatically and faster. :)
mathattack··on Quantum mechanics provide truly random numbers on demand
As an undergrad I had an argument with my Theory professor on if #s could ever be truly random. I believed they couldn't, they could just be #s we don't know in advance, but that everything was actually predetermined. His response, "If needed, we could get them at a quantum level."

I didn't have the Physics knowledge at the time to realize he was right.

mathattack··on Ask HN: How to Deal with a Bad Manager?
A few made up examples:

- Asking you to lie about the status of your work in a status report. (Hiding bad news)

- Deliberately misrepresenting how much something will cost. (Or did cost)

- Asking you to interview someone from a competitor purely to gain market intelligence.

- Falsely blaming another team for mistakes.

- Misrepresenting financial metrics or KPIs.

Micromanagement can be bad, though sometimes it's needed and sometimes it's a symptom of a weak manager doing what they need to in order to stay accountable. Sometimes it's a control tool for sociopaths. When the ethical boundaries are crossed, it's a symnptom of sociopathy.

mathattack··on Ask HN: How to Deal with a Bad Manager?
There isn't enough data to make a blanket recommendation, so here are some things to consider. All are generalities and can be ignored if certain specifics override them, so use your judgment.

- If your employer is doing well, it is better to stay longer and get promoted from within. (Based on "Relatively good one" I'll assume this is the case.)

- If your employer reorganizes frequently, is supports the "Stick it out case."

- If your employer encourages people to find their own new jobs within the company, that is usually the best route. (This isn't always the situation. In many companies you need your current boss's blessing) Based on your explanation it seems like this isn't the case.

- If you are learning a lot, add that to the case to stay.

- If your new manager has ethical issues (as opposed to just competence issues) start your search right now. Not 30 minutes from now. Not tomorrow. Not next week. Now.

- Same if you're put on any kind of performance improvement plan (PIP). Don't think "I'm competent, I can work my way out of it". PIPs are paper trails to keep them from getting sued. Consider the duration of the PIP to be your severance.

- As you've figured out, it's rarely a good idea to go over your manager's head unless you have an outstanding relationship with the CEO or similar who would ask you later "Why didn't you come to me first?"

- If you have to leave, find a new job first. Then be professional on the way out, and don't throw your manager under the bus. Just say, "I really enjoyed working for you, a dream opportunity came up." You never know when they'll be asked for a back-door reference check on you.

- Similarly, don't badmouth your boss when you interview. (You don't want to seem like someone easily discontented.) You can say "It's now or never to leave, and I think your company has a much better future. I'd rather invest in my career there."

Good luck navigating this!

mathattack··on Rents fall in most U.S. metros since 2023, demand struggles to match supply
A couple ways:

1 - The median apartment this year may be different than the median apartment 3 years ago. Perhaps cheaper (or smaller) apartments and houses are coming up for rent. A more accurate measure would be comparing the prior rents to new rents for existing places.

2 - Median doesn't equal mean. The 50th percentile apartment may be cheaper, while the 25th (more applicable for housing affordability discussion) or 75th (more applicable to HN readers) may be higher.

3 - The median is still up 20% over pre-pandemic levels.

4 - To measure housing shortage we should check levels of homelessness based on economic reasons. (Much more complicated than median price)

mathattack··on Bill Atkinson has died
"What a man, what a mind, what gifts to the world he left us."

What a tribute! He was famous at the time, though now perhaps an unsung hero in leading us into a GUI world.

mathattack··on Lessons Learned from Outsourcing Software Projects: A Technical Perspective
Interesting. Do you view the same challenges to apply to using AI to code as well? Seems very similar, though I'm curious where the analogy might break down.
mathattack··on Adam Riess and the Hubble tension
How many journalism majors did you encounter in undergrad who knew how to apply second derivatives to Physics problems? (I've given up on pop science articles - podcasts with experts interviewing experts has a much higher signal to noise ratio)
mathattack··on Trump Taps Palantir to Create Master Database on Every American
It boggles my mind that this doesn't already exist.
mathattack··on Trump Taps Palantir to Compile Data on Americans
It boggles my mind that this doesn't already exist.
mathattack··on Revisiting the algorithm that changed horse race betting (2023)
The inefficiencies eventually get “found out” by the algo traders and they compete away the alpha. Eventually they start losing money because of the house’s edge.

The house loses if all the suckers are driven out, and it’s just algo, because then the algos leave.

mathattack··on Altman and Nadella, Who Ignited the Modern AI Boom Together, Are Drifting Apart
https://archive.is/rhweZ

They are different both as individuals and companies.

Microsoft lives to bleed their corporate customers dry with inferior products. It's filled with armies of company soldier who follow the rules of their narrow silos. OpenAI is a disruptor.

Sathya is the ultimate company man as CEO working most of his life at one place. Sam Altman is all over the place.

Seems like the fallout is natural, and likely inevitable.

mathattack··on IBM Plans to Invest $150B in US over Next Five Years
https://archive.is/HyHq0

Does anyone believe this beyond the usual smoke and mirrors?

mathattack··on Getting forked by Microsoft
And as you illustrated, for a one-off project, rate doesn't really matter. It just needs to get approved by someone senior enough, who will ask "Do we have anyone in-house that knows this?" and "How much will it cost to do all this ourselves?"

If the answer to the first question is "No" then you'll be very cheap compared to the second answer no matter how much you cost.

mathattack··on What should third world dev do in this economy?
2 options, neither of which is easy.

1 - Self-teach your way to excellence.

2 - Go abroad for grad school.

mathattack··on Tech hiring: is this an inflection point?
The power of referrals is going through the roof. It solves both the "1800 resumes and AI generated cover letters" problem, as well as "LLMs during the interview." It helps the HR screener who can justify the interview if it doesn't go well, and gives a lot of data that doesn't appear in interview.

2 impacts to people looking for a job:

1 - The first job just got a lot harder to find.

2 - You have to be proactive about finding someone in the company you want to work for.

mathattack··on Silicon Valley crosswalk buttons apparently hacked to imitate Musk, Zuck voices
I thought it stood for a shorter word.

https://www.reddit.com/r/theinternetofshit/

mathattack··on Don't force your kids to do math
Yes. And it's the same when the kids come from the same parents too. We have one kid that's willing to go very deep on math. The only does what can be figured out in 3 seconds or less. Same genetic parents, same school system.

The original concept in the article of exploration is great. Some kids want to explore math, some science, some music, and some Starcraft.

mathattack··on The Animals That Exist Between Life and Death
This!

I was going to write the same thing. Life, Death, Alive, Dead - these are all terms created by humans to make sense out of the world. In reality it's about more life-like and less life-like.

mathattack··on IBM orders US sales to locate near customers, RTO for cloud staff, DEI purge
IBM is long past innovation, and is in the license audit and share buyback business.

Age bias lawsuit: https://www.cohenmilstein.com/fired-ibm-workers-wrap-up-age-...

IBM audit: https://itaa.com/insights/ibm-audits-lessons-learnt-cimino-i...

mathattack··on As San Francisco car break-ins plunge, these businesses are suffering
Yes - this is one way in which GDP is a bad measure for happiness. Security, prison guards and glass replacements are all positive for GDP.
mathattack··on Ask HN: Is Windows ever going to suck less?
My 2 cents...

Microsoft is struggling with too much legacy code base, and the software is embedded in too many places for them to make too much change. It's more cost effective to appease the existing enterprise base and minimize change, than to create a GUI that doesn't suck.

Apple will continue to expand the gap because they're not as beholden to 30 year old code.

Others will create mass-customizable AI driven GUIs (the post-Apple world) though I can't imagine this comes from Microsoft.

mathattack··on Knowing where your engineer salary comes from
Are any jobs really secure? You still need to show output if you’re in a profit center, and sometimes things happen outside your control.

More commentary below:

https://open.substack.com/pub/therosen/p/knowing-where-your-...

mathattack··on What If We Made Advertising Illegal?
There are products people are either embarrassed to admit they need (many health care examples) or just don’t want to share for competitive reasons (a better parts supplier, or perhaps even a good SAT tutoring service).
mathattack··on What If We Made Advertising Illegal?
I like open questions like this. It forces us to think from first principles, and potentially tackle consequences.

One problem that would come up… It would be very hard to get word out of new (better) products. If you have a great product that doesn’t lend itself to word of mouth, how will anyone know if you can’t advertise?

mathattack··on iRobot made Roomba into an icon. Now, it's in a mess
How much of the issue is long replacement cycles? No wonder companies introduce planned obsolescence.
mathattack··on iRobot made Roomba into an icon. Now, it's in a mess
Seems like currently consumer robotics companies are being valued like consumer electronics. Having AI doesn’t help the valuation.
mathattack··on Restructuring Announcement
I’ve seen many companies have this problem. They base hiring against planned revenue instead of current revenue. In a sense you have to - if you’re planning on growing 100% for several years on the back of new products and a big sales team you must hire in advance. It’s what the VC model is founded on. The downside is when you miss the revenue, you have to cut deep. And it’s usually worse because your hiring standards dropped in hyper growth.
mathattack··on Layoffs Don't Work
I’ve been through several waves of corporate layoffs across many industries.

Some observations:

1 - It’s rarely one round.

2 - Companies tend to be the most thoughtful on the first round. Then it looks easy and the precision (and severance) of future cuts goes down. That’s why it’s smart to take a voluntary offer.

3 - Cuts that are broad based (“Every department cuts 15%”) are a sign the company doesn’t know what’s going on or prefers harmony over hard choices.

4 - Layoffs can be a crutch for firms that don’t do performance management. (Less work to do a layoff than have managers counsel bad performers out)

5 - Managers should never promise “No layoffs”

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