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matwood

21,156 karma · joined February 20, 2010

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matwood··on I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists
I don't think they are talking about the ones you listed, but companies like CoreWeave.

Google, Meta, Amazon, MS have huge cash-producing businesses they can just fall back on. Of course the stocks will get hammered in the short term, but they are still sitting on cash volcanos.

Pure AI plays are what are most at risk. In the bad case, all the CoreWeave type companies have their assets acquired on the cheap by the existing big players. In the armageddon case, companies like Anthropic and OpenAI also end up in the discount bin.

matwood··on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's letter to staff about affair
Outside of your odd take on attraction, which is way more than looks alone...

There are memes that super-model looking women dating nerds are almost always spies of some sort. For this spy to have any chance at gaining real information she needed to have an actual relationship with Huang - which, see above, is more than looks alone.

matwood··on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's letter to staff about affair
> Defending a man cheating his wife because you probably have

...

> defend their depraved way of life.

How about it's none of our business what happens in other people's bedrooms. For all we know his wife was fine with it or maybe she wasn't. Either way, not my business.

matwood··on Every Mac comes with an (undocumented) family member classifier
It’s two sides of the same coin to me. I grew up way before cell phones, and I’m glad. I don’t want a perfect record of everything I do every day. There’s a reason that the mind tends to look back charitably on the past, because otherwise we’d all be constantly depressed. It’s no surprise kids are frequently depressed today.
matwood··on I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists
And we just saw a pretty strong repudiation of that type of DC buildout. I have a little hope politicians can communicate it’s not DCs that are the issue, but the externalization of all the costs.
matwood··on I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists
AI can both be a world transformative technology and OpenAI and Anthropic can go bankrupt.
matwood··on I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists
> Meta’s margins are apparently getting crushed as a result of AI investments.

They are down because of capex investment, but Meta is showing what’s possible with AI. They have been shrinking their workforce and steadily growing.

matwood··on I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists
> electricity is not going to get significantly cheaper

The DC push may be the thing that finally gets renewables over the finish line in the US. For example, TX is around 35% renewables right now. If that continues to rise, we may see power fall in price. It’s all about incentives.

matwood··on I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists
> those servers have about a 5 year lifetime and then are likely to be replaced

This made sense in the past when they were not prohibitively expensive, but other than them breaking down why replace them on the 5 year schedule now? Yes, the newer stuff is better but the jumps from this point forward seem more incremental than revolutionary hardware wise. And even then, a company can simply swap out racks as parts fail.

matwood··on I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists
> I just wish we lived in a world without the speculative bubbles

Speculative bubbles, I.E. risk is where much of the capital comes from to develop these ideas to start. I’m not sure you can have one without the other.

matwood··on Every Mac comes with an (undocumented) family member classifier
I’ve been thinking about this a lot with zoom recordings. In office we used to have chats about a wide range of topics that were sometimes heated, but also respectful. Now with every meeting recorded, it’s all become pretty saccharine.
matwood··on Tesla to wind down Cybertruck production
Yes it's lighter duty parts. If you don't haul or tow, then there's no need for a truck.
matwood··on Tesla to wind down Cybertruck production
> The bed was not large enough to readily hold full sheets of plywood

Many trucks are sold as not much more than vehicles to haul around some plants. But, what I would consider 'real' trucks tend to have 8' beds. My old Toyota Tundra was great at towing, had an 8' bed and was generally an all around great vehicle. It was long, but it was meant to be.

matwood··on University libraries are being swarmed by AI bots, putting public access at risk
No one is lazy or incompetent, but they built and use systems that are scaled for pre-LLM usage. Now they need to upgrade and they should. They challenge is of course who pays for the extra capacity?
matwood··on A wave of plastic-free coffee pods and machines
Espresso-like :)
matwood··on Scaling Git at OpenAI
Depends on your goals. I have stacks of notebooks where I tracked my lifts when I was powerlifting. Tracking is almost required to make progress.

I would have loved to have all that in an app over the last 25-30 years so I could see my progress.

matwood··on Scaling Git at OpenAI
Then you can do the whole file process. For most people the government gets all the data. The filing process is purposely keeping tax companies in business today.

The point of my response is that the analogy was broken without saying what adding those pages could provide.

matwood··on Scaling Git at OpenAI
Depends on the problem those million pages solved. If it meant the government sent me a prepopulated tax form that I could just sign if I agreed with the numbers and be done - yes, I would be extremely excited.
matwood··on Postgres 19 is late because so many more bugs are being found now
If you only use MSSQL as a datastore, it's not too bad. If you used all the other features (MSAS/SSIS/etc...), it is much harder. PG also isn't a panacea - you're trading one set of issues for another. The biggest upside is that it's much less expensive :)
matwood··on Postgres 19 is late because so many more bugs are being found now
The only companies who will really need to fire are the big tech companies who hired just because, for empire building, or to keep talent out of competitor's hands. Nearly everyone else is actually positioned to leverage AI to now compete against the bigger players. I'm already seeing small companies have a big surge.
matwood··on Postgres 19 is late because so many more bugs are being found now
I think avoiding all 3rd party libraries is excessive, but engineering is about tradeoffs. In the extreme case, do you pull in a LeftPad dependency or write it yourself?
matwood··on Restrooms along the Norwegian Scenic Routes
I agree with all you said with two caveats. If someone only watched Fox News, they likely didn’t see all this from Trump especially the first time. Second is that Trump is a product of the growing and unaddressed wealth/equality divide. It’s a similar reason we see the rise of the far right in the EU.
matwood··on Anthropic may not secure investment-grade rating after IPO, Blackstone says
> I wouldn't be surprised if the winners of this paradigm are worth hundreds of trillions.

And the winners may be not be the obvious choice.

matwood··on Patrick Stewart has died
TNG is the Star Trek I grew up with. I rewatch the entire series every so often and it’s always good.
matwood··on Cuba is skipping its November 1, 2026 clock change and staying on DST until 2027
Maybe I’m an outlier, but I’d rather it stay light later. Sunset at 16:30 in the winter is horrible and depressing IMO.
matwood··on Dayjob: Tax – evaluating AI agents on 50 professional tax assignments
> I have a non-trivial tax situation, as a US citizen living abroad.

Same situation as you. I have a local accountant in the country I'm in plus my US accountant. Claude/ChatGPT have been a huge help for checking, explaining, and finding issues. They also found websites with pertinent information that Google did not, which surprised me.

matwood··on Dayjob: Tax – evaluating AI agents on 50 professional tax assignments
Years ago I had a similar issue. Accountant did something incorrect, increasing my liability by around $50k. Tax date came so I paid it, but moved accountants. New person fixed the issues, refiled, but it took a long time to get the refund back. IIRC, the IRS did include some nominal interest for the time they had the money.
matwood··on Two high-speed trains collide near Toledo, Spain
Regardless of how that one survey was done AS ends up on many best US fiction book lists. The 90s may have also been one of the AS peaks, as I recall being told to read from multiple people (family and teachers). From your own link:

The novel made the New York Public Library’s list of Best Books of the Century in 1996, and Radcliffe Publishing ranked it 92 out of the top 100 novels of the 20th century. In 1999, Atlas Shrugged was number 37 in the list of 100 Favorite Novels of Librarians. A Harris poll placed Atlas Shrugged on America’s Top 10 Favorite Book List in 2008, and The Modern Library ranked it the number one best novel published in the English language in 2009. The novel is listed as number six on Boston Library’s list of 100 Most Influential Books of the Century, and it ranks number five on the list of the 20 Most Inspirational Books ever written. Atlas Shrugged has been translated into 14 languages, including Chinese (2007).

From a story perspective, I found AS too long and preferred The Fountainhead. Were they influential to my younger self? Sure, much like the Bible was to me as an atheist. A story with both good and bad ideas to draw from.

matwood··on Git for the US Code
Convoluted to navigate sounds like a problem that could be solved with technology…
matwood··on New iMac with M6
Same. I'm also a Magic Mouse person.
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