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mb7733

952 karma · joined December 19, 2019

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mb7733··on Generating Simpson's Paradox with Z3
This is all true. I originally added a disclaimer to my post that said "assuming you have enough data to support the level of granularity" but I removed it for brevity because I thought it was implied -- small sample size isn't part of Simpson's paradox. My apologies for being unclear
mb7733··on Generating Simpson's Paradox with Z3
I think the real-world resolution to this problem is straightforward though. You should look at the finest level of granularity available, and pick the best treatment in the relevant subpopulation for the patient.
mb7733··on Is a 'slow' swimming pool impeding world records?
That is exactly what happens almost every time... Just not this time
mb7733··on Is a 'slow' swimming pool impeding world records?
It does. This is why the fastest qualifiers get to swim in the middle lanes.
mb7733··on Heavy resistance training at retirement age induces lasting beneficial effects
The actual article had nothing to do with training 1RM, this whole thread comes from a misinformed top level comment.
mb7733··on What makes e natural? (2004)
For trigonometry/calculus/physics radians are by far the most practical because they are dimensionless, so no constants appear when differentiating or integrating. (By the way, these constants will involve factors of pi anyway, it's inherent.)

For example, try to work out the Taylor series for sin(x) using degrees (or rotations). It's awful.

mb7733··on Heavy resistance training at retirement age induces lasting beneficial effects
I don't understand your post. There is no mention of testing 1 rep max (1 RM) in the article.

Are you under the impression that the HRT group was training by only performing 1 RM lifts? That wasn't the case:

> At a commercial gym, HRT performed a supervised full body programme three times per week, with 6–8 weeks of initial habituation. The periodisation programme was machine based and each exercise included 3 sets of 6–12 repetitions at ~70%–85% of 1 RM, which was estimated using the prediction equation according to methods by Brzycki

Meanwhile the moderate group did something very similar, just with more repetitions and less weight:

> 3 sets of 10–18 repetitions at ~50%–60% of 1 RM

I don't see how one is more "realistic" than the other.

mb7733··on Gh-dash: A beautiful CLI dashboard for GitHub
There is a lot of other stuff that gets loaded and parsed when you visit the site. I see 151 requests and get a DOMContentLoaded of 27.51 seconds. The slow requests aren't between me and the GQL API as far as I can tell.
mb7733··on Gh-dash: A beautiful CLI dashboard for GitHub
> Why? Strongly suggest updating the README to explain why this is useful, or what kind of workflow makes this useful. Just a list of features isn't that compelling to me because I'm not sure I want it.

I don't mean to speak for the author, but: The 10 seconds it took for the GitHub web UI to load the homepage of this project is a great justification for its existence!

mb7733··on 'Underwater bicycle' propels swimmers forward at superhuman speed
This is besides the point but a 20 minute mile is a typical walking pace, not anywhere near a mid tier marathon pace (regardless of the definition of mid tier). That would be an 8:40 marathon.
mb7733··on Road resurfacing during the daytime without stopping traffic [video]
Very cool. Reminds me of this video I saw recently about the new subway being dug in Vancouver. There they build a temporary road surface above the underground work: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4YFFtTEUQc&t=380s (I linked to the most relevant part, but the coolest part of this video is probably the machine that bores and reinforces the tunnel in one pass.)
mb7733··on First 'tooth regrowth medicine' to be tested in Japan from Sept. 2024
Seems to be a cosmetic issue only?
mb7733··on Ice to treat soft-tissue injuries contraindicated by creator of protocol
The reason I posted that article is because it summarizes how there has been a huge shift in thinking since the low-fat craze. I don't think it takes anything for granted, and I wasn't looking to argue for a particular point of view. I'm sure you can find studies about a specific topic as easily as I can.

Re caloric density: it's true that fat has more cal/g than carbs or protein. But, people do not eat a fixed mass of food per day -- the satiety of the food they consume influences this. Insulin response also affects weight gain and satiety.

mb7733··on Ice to treat soft-tissue injuries contraindicated by creator of protocol
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18296750:

> This article examines how faith in science led physicians and patients to embrace the low-fat diet for heart disease prevention and weight loss. Scientific studies dating from the late 1940s showed a correlation between high-fat diets and high-cholesterol levels, suggesting that a low-fat diet might prevent heart disease in high-risk patients. By the 1960s, the low-fat diet began to be touted not just for high-risk heart patients, but as good for the whole nation. After 1980, the low-fat approach became an overarching ideology, promoted by physicians, the federal government, the food industry, and the popular health media. Many Americans subscribed to the ideology of low fat, even though there was no clear evidence that it prevented heart disease or promoted weight loss. Ironically, in the same decades that the low-fat approach assumed ideological status, Americans in the aggregate were getting fatter, leading to what many called an obesity epidemic. Nevertheless, the low-fat ideology had such a hold on Americans that skeptics were dismissed. Only recently has evidence of a paradigm shift begun to surface, first with the challenge of the low-carbohydrate diet and then, with a more moderate approach, reflecting recent scientific knowledge about fats.

mb7733··on Ice to treat soft-tissue injuries contraindicated by creator of protocol
As a patient, in the past I've absolutely been directed to ice injuries for weeks. (Not so much in the last ~10 years, as the world caught up to the fact that this was a bad idea.) Sources like the Red Cross or WebMD article on RICE[0] _still_ recommend it for at least 48 hours after a minor injury, even though this has been debunked.

So I think it's good that the Wikipedia article emphasizes that the protocol is outdated.

[0] https://www.webmd.com/first-aid/rice-method-injuries

mb7733··on Bay Area workers charged for building secret apartments inside train stations
It's definitely plastic. It's also of a much greater diameter than a shotgun shell. And, it doesn't resemble at all the device in that video.

That aside, the fact that it's possible can make a firearm from a pipe, doesn't seem to me to mean that someone should do 5 years in prison... for possibly having touched a pipe... found in a pile of junk.

Either there is more to this or something went seriously wrong here legally

mb7733··on Bay Area workers charged for building secret apartments inside train stations
If you're interested see my reply to the sibling comment. There is an article with a picture of the "firearm" which is apparently a piece of PVC, of much greater diameter then any bullet. Setting aside the fact it was never actually found in his possession, this is absurd.
mb7733··on Bay Area workers charged for building secret apartments inside train stations
Right. But as the article tells it, it wasn't even found in his possession; it was found with a bunch of junk in a park, along with some of his mail. Apparently his DNA was on it but then they admit there was doubt about how conclusive that was. I'm just amazed that that kind of shaky evidence could result in a 5 year prison sentence.

All that aside, what the hell is a pipe gun? What exactly did they find? A length of PVC...

https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/homeless-man-livi...

mb7733··on Bay Area workers charged for building secret apartments inside train stations
This was a great read, thanks for posting it. I didn't really understand what he received so much jail time for though...
mb7733··on Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images
> If insurance can accurately predict losses that will occur and price accordingly, you are paying exactly the same amount plus overhead, on a similar schedule for insurance as directly paying for losses yourself without insurance.

The hypothetical that I'm working with is that the insurer can perfectly price insurance by perfectly estimating the _risk_ or _expected loss_ for each individual customer. They can then pool this risk, take a profit, and everyone wins.

This is what I assumed you meant by "perfectly priced insurance". But I've realized you're talking about the case where insurer has perfect knowledge of the future losses each individual will take. I agree in this case insurance will not make sense. Insurance would be free for most individuals and impossibly expensive for those doomed to catastrophe. (The latter group would be screwed, even if they shared perfect knowledge of the future with the insurer.)

mb7733··on Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images
I don't care how well you manage your expenses, it doesn't make sense to keep enough cash on hand to rebuild your house if it burns to the ground. (Not to mention that is completely impossible for almost everyone.)
mb7733··on Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images
If you dispense with insurance entirely, how do you deal with catastrophic expenses? The key things I think you are not considering are:

1. If you choose not to take out an insurance policy, and instead save the money yourself, you will not have the lump sum immediately available to cover catastrophe. Whereas as soon as you start paying insurance premiums you are covered.

2. The payout you receive when you make an insurance claim does not just come from the premiums you have personally paid. In fact, for a rare event, the size of the payout likely exceed the total cost of all premiums you could pay over your entire lifetime. This is because the risk is pooled over all customers, and not all customers will make claims.

Neither of the above 2 points become any less relevant as the insurance premiums become more and more accurately priced.

mb7733··on Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images
First of all: the payout you get from insurance does not come only from the premiums you personally pay. If you make a claim, your expenses are covered by the pool of money of all customers, even those that do not make any claims.

Second of all: when you take out an insurance policy and pay your first premium, you are immediately covered. If you are "self insuring" by setting aside the same amount monthly, it will take you a long time to even begin to accumulate enough funds to cover yourself in case of catastrophe. (And due to the first point, you may never reach that point.)

Finally, yes, of course, there is no need to take out an insurance policy for a risk that you can afford to pay out-of-pocket. It's like how if you have the cash to pay for a house, there is no need to take out a mortgage.

mb7733··on Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images
Accurately pricing insurance doesn't reduce the size of the pool.

When you buy insurance, you aren't just pooling risk with other customers with the exact same risk profile as yourself. You're pooling with all customers of the company. (Plus all customers of any reinsurance company, etc.)

mb7733··on Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images
This doesn't make sense. If an insurance company wanted to charge higher premiums, they would just do so. They wouldn't need to spy on customers.

The point of them trying to quantify risk as accurately as possible is to be able to extract profit while also offering competitive rates.

It's the same as with any other company. They try and operate as efficiently as possible (ie. reduce costs) to try and make more profit, while competing on price.

mb7733··on Home insurers are dropping customers based on aerial images
Why would insurance being individually priced negate its value? The benefit of insurance is the pooling of the risk. The more individually it is priced, the more efficiently it works. (Not that I'm a fan of insurers spying on their customers from the sky...)
mb7733··on LiveView Is Best with Svelte
Haven't used it in years, but Meteor.js worked like this. Even to the point where it had a client-side database implementation that mirrored (parts of) the server-side database.

It would apply the updates optimistically to the client side DB, and the much of code that sat between the database could be shared between client and server. Neat stuff, even if overall Meteor wasn't my favourite thing to work with.

mb7733··on Git as a debugging tool
As a big fan of interactive rebase, when cleanint up a chunk of commits I do a reset as reset the OP described (smetimes mid rebase). It's convenient for inspecting all your changes together, and you can pick and choose changes into different commits easily too... Pretty much equivalent, but I find it more straightforward for some things.
mb7733··on How the Atlantic Went from Broke to Profitable in Three Years
Didn't intend to be aggressive. I was just wondering what you were getting at.
mb7733··on How the Atlantic Went from Broke to Profitable in Three Years
What's your point?
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