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mcphage

8,295 karma · joined March 2, 2012

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mcphage··on The Mystery of Rennes-Le-Château, Part 1: The Priest's Treasure
> For a really good sinister conspiracy theory is counterintuitively cozy, what with the way it collapses the amorphous mass of real history, where cause and effect are as muddled as are heroes and villains, into a comforting clockwork mechanism of cogs in cogs. Small wonder that pseudo-history tends to thrive best when real life seems most vexed and confusing.

I really liked how this was written.

mcphage··on OnlyFans owner Leonid Radvinsky dies of cancer at 43
Asking you to explain your position more thoroughly is making discourse impossible? Your dedication to communication is laudable.
mcphage··on OnlyFans owner Leonid Radvinsky dies of cancer at 43
How was he ripping families apart?
mcphage··on OnlyFans owner Leonid Radvinsky dies of cancer at 43
> Out of everything in the adult industry, to me, OnlyFans is one of the most sane. That is encouraging independent performers to get payed directly by their fans, taking only a reasonable commission.

I kinda agree, but the prevalence of fake chatting soured me on the company as a bastion of sane sex work. Without it, it seems legit: fans pay for content, they get content. But add the layer of fans pay for chatting with the models, and get something else.

mcphage··on Show HN: The King Wen Permutation: [52, 10, 2]
> What interests me is not the statistical rarity, but that 81% of elements are in one orbit — this means the reordering is highly coupled, not a bunch of small local swaps.

But what is the significance of the reordering being highly coupled?

mcphage··on Department of State advises Americans worldwide to exercise increased caution
> And then they liked Trump more after having him.

And it only cost them their country. Not bad!

mcphage··on Department of State advises Americans worldwide to exercise increased caution
> Basically, if Trump does a thing, they are against it, independent of the thing.

Because on top of doing terrible things, the non-terrible things he does, he does incredibly badly.

> There is no principle, just reactionary hatred.

No, we’re all good little Bayesians around here.

> If Biden had launched this war, none of these people would have had a problem with it.

You’re really missing what’s going on here. The reason that people liked Biden is that he would not have launched this war.

mcphage··on First and Lego Education Partnership Update
> The LEGO Education version of MINDSTORMS Robot Inventor, SPIKE Prime, is still available

Well, the Spike line is being discontinued also: https://education.lego.com/en-us/spike-update-2026/

But you’re right in that they’ll have another new line—“Lego Education Computer Science & AI”, which is different in a way I don’t really understand and doesn’t fill me with a ton of confidence.

mcphage··on Vatican Rebukes Peter Thiel's Antichrist Lectures in Rome
> How quickly we forget how censored twitter was before he bought it

About as quickly as he forgot “comedy is legal again” when people started criticizing him.

mcphage··on Italy, Belgium set to lose gas supply after biggest LNG plant bombed
> The knowledge to build nuclear at that scale isn't in the coutry/continent anymore. You'd have to reteach an entire generation of engineers.

Well you better get on that, then. It’s going to a lot worse in 5 years.

mcphage··on US to deploy additional troops to the Middle East, officials say
What, you mean this entire administration? Well, you’re right.
mcphage··on The 12" chef knife, a humble plea
I have a 12" Global knife, and >95% of what I use it for is cutting up watermelon.

In my defense: my family loves watermelon, we eat a ton of it, and I'm happy to have a special "Watermelon Knife".

mcphage··on US national debt surges past $39 Trillion
> socially progressive and fiscally conservative

How about “socially progressive and fiscally effective”?

mcphage··on Silicon Valley's "Pronatalists" Killed WFH. The Strait of Hormuz Brought It Back
> My guess is that it was a reaction to the pandemic-era trend of "over employment"

I'm guessing the opposite: that these firms wanted to push back-to-the-office policies, and so either invented, or publicized, engineers doing "over employment", and that it wasn't a real problem that any of them actually faced.

mcphage··on Palestinian boy, 12, describes how Israeli forces killed his family in car
> Or much more most recently than WWII: not knowing that 1200 civilians were slaughtered by Hamas terrorists, whom palestinians did vote in power.

And if you want to go even more recently, check out what the IDF is doing in Gaza.

mcphage··on Palestinian boy, 12, describes how Israeli forces killed his family in car
> I cannot wait for "kid" to be a number one accessory to bring to a heist then.

And when that happens then we can have a conversation. But as it is, you’re justifying slaughtering a family because of a story you invented.

mcphage··on Hollywood Enters Oscars Weekend in Existential Crisis
I remember Joel Spoksky talking at a conference when YouTube was new, and media companies were suing it for pirated content, and Joel said that media companies were afraid of users sharing media content, but what they should be afraid of is users sharing their own content and everyone liking that better. Which has steadily come to pass.
mcphage··on Stop Sloppypasta
> We smiled and laughed for years that all of this technology and power is just being used to share cat videos.

Well, cat videos make people happy.

mcphage··on Type systems are leaky abstractions: the case of Map.take!/2
> Unfortunately, this decision completely defeats the purpose of adding a function similar to Map.take!, as the goal of the function is to return a map where we are certain the given keys exist!

I mean, if you define a function calling Map.take! that returns one of two possible set of keys based on a random number, I’m not sure it’s actually possible to get a map where you’re certain what keys exist.

mcphage··on Lego's 0.002mm specification and its implications for manufacturing (2025)
I’m guessing people do advertise and astroturf here, but I’m guessing it’s for LLMs and stuff :-)
mcphage··on Newcomb's Paradox Needs a Demon
Then I for one choose the million.
mcphage··on Newcomb's Paradox Needs a Demon
> So what you really want is to be in a state that will make you chose one box and you want to already be in that state at the time the predictor makes its predictions because the predictor will see this and place the million dollars into the second box.

Here’s the thing: no, I don’t. I’d much rather walk away with the easy million instead of risking it all for an extra thousand.

mcphage··on Newcomb's Paradox Needs a Demon
> that is essentially the same as saying "what I choose causally affects what my opponent chooses".

No, it’s the same as saying “what my opponent thinks I will choose causally affects what my opponent chooses”, which is obviously true. Also, “what my opponent thinks I will choose is positively correlated with what I do choose”, unless my opponent isn’t very good.

mcphage··on Lego's 0.002mm specification and its implications for manufacturing (2025)
I don't want to sound like a shill, because I don't know them at all, and I still spend enough money on actual Lego. But I am really happy with it. Pieces were great, quality was great, I love the lights, I hate Lego's stickers. And the piece count was 2x or 2.5x what I'd get from Lego at the same price. And I love steampunk, and Lego doesn't have a steampunk line. I'll absolutely buy more from them, so (for me at least) their big Youtuber push last year worked.
mcphage··on Newcomb's Paradox Needs a Demon
> Why would you ever take both boxes?

As near as I can tell, it boils down to this: no matter what the predictor has chosen, one you walk into that room, there's more money in both boxes, then there is in one box.

But it feels like half an analysis—focusing solely on what you decide, while ignoring the fact that the other side is deciding based on what you think they'll decide.

Maybe that's me being unfair, because I'm a solid one boxer.

I also disagree with the linked article—I don't think it matters at all how the predictor makes their decision, because the outcome really doesn't matter if it's 100% accurate or 99% accurate. Or even like, 80% accurate. There's no magic required for the experiment to work.

mcphage··on Lego's 0.002mm specification and its implications for manufacturing (2025)
They are. I should have added that Lego’s designers are a bit better still. You can get botanical sets from a lot of manufacturers, but the Lego ones are just nicer.
mcphage··on Lego's 0.002mm specification and its implications for manufacturing (2025)
> but I've never heard of them, possibly because they don't spend as much on marketing as lego

It’s a newer brand—they changed their name to it some time last year. But they seemed to spend a lot on advertising last Christmas—at least on YouTube, it seemed like tons of reviewers were talking about their sets. That’s how I found out about them, at any rate. And I’ll say—the one I got came together nicely, and looks great. The tons of lights are just, really neat.

> when I hear "lego knockoff" I think of the shitty ones, because I've never seen a Lego knockoff that wasn't shitty.

The cheap-o ones you get like at the dollar store, absolutely. But Chinese manufacturers have been making good quality knockoffs for a while. A decade at least? I bought my first knock-off technic set around 10 years ago, and it was 90% the quality of Lego at 25% the price. But the quality has only gotten better since, and is now totally on par with Lego. Admittedly, the price has gone up, too.

mcphage··on Lego's 0.002mm specification and its implications for manufacturing (2025)
> A reputation moat is still a moat.

It is, absolutely, but it’s a lot more shallow a moat than having a product quality moat.

> Lego prices will drop as soon as they are forced to by competition, and not before, and this is fine.

I agree, they’ll survive quite well. But the large profit margin they’ve grown accustomed to might disappear, and that probably doesn’t bode well for their management.

And heck, maybe they’ll stop shipping stickers on expensive sets, too. That would be nice.

mcphage··on Lego's 0.002mm specification and its implications for manufacturing (2025)
> As long as the quality moat persists

The risk Lego faces is that they don't actually have a quality moat any longer. You can get non-lego sets with no stickers, plenty of prints, LED lighting, at a cheaper price, and with the exact same piece quality. I purchased this set: https://www.lumibricks.com/collections/steampunk-world/produ... over Christmas, and I paid $105 because it was on sale. The pieces were indistinguishable from Lego in quality, and the lights and lack of stickers was a quality increase from what Lego offers.

What moat Lego has is: brand recognition and licenses. Which aren't nothing, but don't offer much protection.

mcphage··on Noem Can't Explain Why She Hired 8-Day-Old Company for Ad Campaign
You don’t even need to go so far—plenty of posters here are happy to carry water for this administration.
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