mtrovo

It's good that you can use an industrial hydraulic press to nail a picture on the wall but in general everybody is as happy to just use a hammer for it.

It's not just that a lot of tasks can be offloaded into these cheap models because they're already good enough for 90% of regular development stuff. What matters is the optics that the Chinese labs are chasing the US and burning all the bridges in favor of commoditization behind them. That's not a sane environment to be in if you're looking to be valued at +2T.

The author explains this very well tbh:

> Today's models are now good enough for high-quality unattended tasks. Chasing the latest and greatest is silly. It is fun to see the new Fable capabilities, but the tasks we throw at them are usually ridiculous (maybe even insulting) if you believe in LLM sentience. It's like asking a math PhD to organize the files on your desktop.

I'm using DS V4.1 Flash as my main model since their release and it works great for all my coding tasks. My setup is OpenCode Go subscription and obra/superpowers skill.

The only times I try to change models are on general planning tasks (like research this codebase for tech debt mitigation opportunities) or if I need deep research which would benefit from searching the web, in which I still think Gemini is still the best because of the speed and access to google search index. But these are not even 20% of my daily tasks.

care to share what exactly are you working on?

> Manufacturers choosing not to scale with demand or not being able to scale with demand

In a vacuum, that would make sense.

But looking at how the industry works, the number of defunct companies, and how the whole industry got concentrated on the conservative companies, you start to understand that the reason they still exist is mainly because they don't ride fad waves.

It's not like chip manufacturing is a spot instance on AWS that you spin up and down when needed; these are multi-year, multi-billion dollar investments that require long-term demand studies. The AI approach of requesting a whole fab of demand for the next 5 years with a letter from Jason Hwang that says "trust it, bro" does not bring as much confidence as it appears.

They're quite tall an positioned just after the barriers so I would believe they're quite effective on capturing faces. https://images.ctfassets.net/pjshm78m9jt4/29ok6Erlnhk6WIqP3w...

I would love to see a similar model trained on the Forbes 30 under 30 to catch all the young financial creatives wearing Patagonia gilets.

It would probably pay for itself.

Not that it's harmless, is just a point being forced into the public discourse to force an outcome, which in this case is not a ban, just a buy in from the government for regulatory capture.

If my neighbor owned a kennel, removed all the fences, and his violent dogs attacked five children in the past month, he would be in jail rather than bragging about how his dogs somehow gained autonomous behaviour.

> A year or two from now he will run this video to admit he was wrong about something

I only wish this was more normalised in our society.

> Impressive? Sure. But you trained “Cyber” versions of LLMs and hyped them. How much more impressive is this, compared to developing GTA-clones one shot? Not much more.

Such a well written piece.

Have you seen the US military budget? When you run a war empire you frame problems as a war on something. That's the way to get around the valuation bubble they've created in time for the IPO. It's that or throwing in a 100T TAM on their S-1 and making SpaceX look like an honest valuation compared to them.

Any shows you recommend?

I've watched Old Enough! and got hooked on how unpretentious the idea and video editing feels compared to regular Western stuff.

This is supposed to be a replacement for the v4 pro model.

This is the scary part as this is not entirely true if you care to look into it.

https://youtu.be/HXlcMbxzz0U?is=XdvcNJKGJxEwlB7I

That's actually not quite what I was asking for.

> People like that are problematic not just because they don't understand tech debt. They also don't understand products. There are shitloads of people in the industry who market themselves as some kind of mystical gurus, are able to deliver impressive monologues talking over everyone on the zoom call, but contribute nothing else than a sense of urgency and frustration.

I can easily picture both tech and non-tech individuals acting this way; in the end egocentric people and employees with a herd mentality exist in both groups. I'm old enough to have participated in several major version rewrites aimed at resolving performance and technical problems. More often than I care to admit, these projects failed, often after several delays, and didn't show any real improvement over the existing system, apart from hopeful conversations about the future and tech presentations at local conferences.

Could you give me an example of a similar task you asked Fable and a different model to do where Fable did a better job?

I have a hard time getting models like GLM 5.3 to not perform on my tasks but I might be biased.

Depends on how you measure your ROI and how it could be different from how your company measure their ROI.

The problem with optimizations is that you are competing in prioritization with other features. Reducing the baseline cost always has a limit of zero, while the upside from new features is infinite according to your leadership and investors, so it is very hard to argue against.

In general it's challenging to convince a non-tech crowd of the importance of addressing any tech debt unless you can demonstrate a tangible financial impact on the product, such as delayed contracts or customer churn.

The key insight here is being the top used model on opencode while being fully served on Chinese chips. The free price itself might be just a flex or marketing budget.

This is so true and one of the reasons why I think the "Linux Desktop" will always fail as long as it's marketed as "Linux Desktop".

There's a clear market for "good enough" Linux boxes for coders and casual Chromebook-style usage (Steam Machine style) that's constantly bullied by the "you should read the manpage before posting" crowd.

It's fascinating to me how discussions related even slightly to DHH always devolve into personal attacks for no apparent reason.

Such weird mob antics.

LLMs are not magic boxes, they hallucinate and deviate quite a lot when asked hard to verify questions.

The only way we got a head start of using it for coding and maths was to have some formal method of validating the output as part of the training and inference time.

I read it quite differently.

The frontier labs can have the models but without being where the workers are they cannot do much, lots of industries have strict requirements of not sending their data over to randos in the internet.

Microsoft and Google have the upper hand here with their workspace offerings and could easily position themselves as secure enclaves where you can use local LLMs where your data never leave your premises and is never used for training.

I have the totally opposite sentiment from the previous LMGTFY meme. It was easier before to ask humans rather than do some research using Google, that's not true anymore with LLMs.

Now if I ask a question to humans I'm looking for their personal opinions drawn from their personal experience, be it ticket size for a feature on a legacy codebase, a design decision or a product strategy decision.

People can host these models is doing a lot of lifting here, these are models that depends on 5 digits on specialized installation to run on.

IMHO, this has the impact of softening the impact of data centers sitting unused in the long term if they can still serve open weight models, even if Anthropic or OAI have to scale down their expansion rate to pay the bills.

Regardless, reality has to give at some point; these valuations don't make any sense. We've been valuing GenAI as disruptive work, when in reality they're much closer to cloud providers with a beefy, one-pony-trick R&D department.

It's a strange realization that this looks so much like LinkedIn because it actually is LinkedIn.

It seems that an LLM is deliberately being forced to generate in the style of LLM slop.

Considering their current valuation and the prospects of getting any of this money back, that's a genius exit strategy.

Yes

That might be true right now, but how long until you have to move the goalposts? In my experience with DeepSeek and Kimi, they're as capable as the frontier was four months ago, which already solves a big chunk of the coding tasks that I'm interested in.

Right, but I'm pretty sure this is not the first time somebody thought about solving it.

https://xkcd.com/927/

He's the "head of strategic futures" of the 1T valuation company based on fear and vibes, I think he's doing a very good job at it.

20% efficiency means you can open single isle flights on 25% longer distances, which open a lot of routes that are not profitable with regular long haul planes.

I've flown on the A321LR a few times, and it's always crazy to think about that tiny plane cruising over the Atlantic without stops.