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mulvya

383 karma · joined April 16, 2017

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mulvya··on Covid is surging in the world’s most vaccinated country. Why?
Sorry, I confused it with CanSino.
mulvya··on Mild Covid-19 induces lasting antibody protection
> Be careful with your second study, because they looked at those that developed/still had antibodies post-infection. Kinda like saying those that developed a good immune response developed a good immune response.

True. It depends on which specific antibody you look for, and how.

Here's a recent cohort study:

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies Persist for up to 13 Months and Reduce Risk of Reinfection https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.07.21256823v...

"Here, we longitudinally measured Spike (S) and Nucleocapsid (N)-specific antibodies in 1,309 healthcare workers (HCWs), including 916 COVID-19 negative HCWs and 393 convalescent COVID-19 for up to 422 days post-symptom. ... Overall, 69 SARS-CoV-2 infections developed in the COVID-19 negative group (incidence of 12.22 per 100 person-years) versus one in the COVID-19 positive group (incidence of 0.40 per 100 person-years), indicating a relative reduction in the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection of 96.7% (p<0.0001)."

Of course, these antibodies <--> protection studies are a bit of streetlamp effect phenomenon. Antibodies are relatively easy to measure so that's what immune endurance studies tend to check for. The relative risk of reinfection in real-world settings is the more robust measure.

mulvya··on Covid is surging in the world’s most vaccinated country. Why?
A majority of the vaccine doses used in Seychelles is the Sinopharm. It uses a human adenovirus as its viral vector. One aspect that was mentioned early last year in Derek Lowe's roundup is that most Asians have existing antibodies against this adenovirus type (for Indians, I believe the figure is around 80%). That may be why this vaccine may not be adequately effective in certain populations.
mulvya··on Mild Covid-19 induces lasting antibody protection
Protection of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection is similar to that of BNT162b2 vaccine protection: A three-month nationwide experience from Israel https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.20.21255670v... (Pfizer vaccine)

SARS-CoV-2 antibody-positivity protects against reinfection for at least seven months with 95% efficacy https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5...

mulvya··on Study: Vitamin D won’t limit risk, severity of Covid-19
The overall estimate of heritability of 25-hydroxyvitamin D serum concentrations attributable to GWAS common SNPs is 7.5%

from

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02662-2

mulvya··on Study: Vitamin D won’t limit risk, severity of Covid-19
"This study was not designed to evaluate the effect of acute changes in vitamin D status (ie, from supplementation) on prevention or treatment of COVID-19. One randomised trial and one quasi-experimental trial have provided evidence for a positive effect of vitamin D supplementation around time of diagnosis on COVID-19 prognosis in infected individuals. The doses of vitamin D administered in these studies could result in an acute change in the availability of vitamin D, which may support the immune system’s response to the virus, mitigate acute lung injury and contribute to improved prognosis. Our results, which pertain to long-term vitamin D status, do not preclude the possibility that therapeutic doses of vitamin D may be effective in preventing or treating COVID-19 infection. Larger randomised trials using diverse sample populations are needed to investigate the potential use of therapeutic doses of vitamin D supplementation for COVID-19 prevention and treatment."
mulvya··on Study: Vitamin D won’t limit risk, severity of Covid-19
> the current very low 'recommended' limit.

Yes. See

'Why the IOM recommendations for vitamin D are deficient' authored by two of the committee members who drafted the first IOM recommendation in 1997 @ https://asbmr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jbmr....

mulvya··on Study: Vitamin D won’t limit risk, severity of Covid-19
The study did not actually measure Vitamin D levels.

" But further investigation was needed because observational studies couldn’t establish a causal link between blood vitamin D levels and COVID-19. The challenge in establishing a causal link arises because blood vitamin D levels are influenced by multiple factors including genetics, exposure to sunlight, diet and supplements, and are associated with other risk factors for COVID-19, the researchers said.

“We were trying to get at the part of the variation in vitamin D that’s genetic and leave aside the rest to see whether or not there’s an association with the risk of getting COVID-19,” Cassano said. “And when we do it that way, we find no association, and that’s telling.”"

This was covered in early access here: https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/kzy3bb/no_evidence...

mulvya··on Covid-19 Was 'A Preventable Disaster,' WHO-Ordered Report Says
Innumerably many valid statements of the form 'if P then Q' can be generated.

But dissemination of one by a govt. scientist in a prominent medical journal, however, indicates that they think it likely enough to be true.

mulvya··on Covid-19 Was 'A Preventable Disaster,' WHO-Ordered Report Says
> From what I understand, HIV is fairly difficult to transmit, requiring an exchange of infected body fluids.

Fauci didn't think so in 1983.

"But if ''nonsexual, non-blood-borne transmission is possible, the scope of the syndrome may be enormous,'' writes Dr. Fauci of the National Institutes of Health in an editorial to be published Friday in the Journal of the American Medical Association."

https://www.nytimes.com/1983/05/06/us/family-contact-studied...

mulvya··on Lasting immunity found after recovery from Covid-19
Real world experience doesn't show that.

Protection of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection is similar to that of BNT162b2 vaccine protection: A three-month nationwide experience from Israel https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.20.21255670v...

mulvya··on Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?
Cross-border leakage with Bangladesh? Possibly. With Pakistan? Hardly.

All of these countries require a recent negative test prior to arrival. The Central Asian countries show inflection at pretty much the same time, barring Uzbekistan which is a week late. However, India has a lot more relative traffic going on with Sri Lanka and they and Maldives, both South of India, inflected a whole month later.

mulvya··on Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe
Correct. If it's not eradicated, herd immunity leads to endemic equilibrium. Given animal reservoirs, it's not likely to be eradicated.
mulvya··on Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?
That's the magnitude of new detected infections. Pakistan has conducted 1/4th tests per-capita compared to India. 1/6th for Bangladesh. So I don't think there's much to see there. I'm comparing the inflection points and curves on the graphs.
mulvya··on Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?
The wave isn't primarily due to loosening of restrictions or slack in behaviour. It's due to, for a lack of a better term, environmental factors.

Look at the countries in the vicinity of India; they all show similar rise at around the same time.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/pakistan/#...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/bangladesh...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sri-lanka/...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/maldives/#...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/#grap...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/kazakhstan...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/azerbaijan...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uzbekistan... ...

COVID is seasonal: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.28.21252625v...

Mumbai had the peak of its 'first wave' on October 7th. See mobility trends for vehicular and pedestrian traffic at https://covid19.apple.com/mobility. You'll see both monotonically increasing as the peak approaches and then recedes. If this were a simple morality tale of the level of social contact, this wouldn't be the case.

See this paper for a more thorough look at the epidemiological mysteries of an infectious respiratory disease: https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-42...

mulvya··on India’s second wave of Covid-19 feels nothing like its first
> The level of air pollution is relatively the same now as it was last year for the first wave though.

No, they are not. See table 1 of https://www.orfonline.org/research/air-pollution-delhi-filli... - it hit a low point in October, but was much better during lockdown and relatively better post-lockdown although trending towards worse levels.

mulvya··on India’s second wave of Covid-19 feels nothing like its first
At this stage, it's evident that the primary mode of SARS-Cov-2 transmission is through aerosols, not droplets nor fomites.

The level of air pollution affects the duration of suspension of bioaerosols as well as the performance of the innate immune system. Low humidity is also linked to higher transmission.

See

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.04.21249249v... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.19.20215236v... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.07.20057216v...

mulvya··on India’s second wave of Covid-19 feels nothing like its first
The CFR in Mumbai is half that of earlier waves.

See https://postimg.cc/Xpn7hthc

-----

Delhi looks more severely affected, likely due to its air pollution. See https://aqicn.org/city/delhi/

mulvya··on India’s second wave
But there is another factor, only recently mentioned in Indian media.

The fear factor causes many of those with means to insist on hospitalization. This article talks about it in the context of celebs [1] but I've seen it among my relatives as well where healthy young adults with moderate/high Ct values are admitted on insistence of their parents or themselves.

I read similar reporting about self-arranged oxygen use as well.

[1]: https://www.timesnownews.com/mumbai/article/mumbai-film-star...

mulvya··on India’s second wave
The CFR in Mumbai, so far, is less than half of the first wave. But due to the rapid rise in cases (elsewhere; Mumbai appears to have peaked on 7 Apr), there's a crunch in beds and especially oxygen.
mulvya··on Denmark to permanently cease using AstraZeneca vaccine
> The licence allows AZ to make a profit -- after the pandemic.

After could be as early as 1st July 2021.

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-astrazene...

mulvya··on South African variant can break through Pfizer vaccine, Israeli study says
> Let's also say that it is somewhat effective against the variant so the performance of the vaccinated immune system is actually better than the naive immune system.

This is begging the question.

> Because of the selection effect, you could have a higher variant prevalence compared to regular COVID-19 in the vaccinated population

They are measuring the prevalence of the variant between vaccinated and control groups of similar size, not the share of variants within the vaccinated groups.

mulvya··on South African variant can break through Pfizer vaccine, Israeli study says
The article uses the term COVID-19 sloppily.

It says,

"The study, released on Saturday, compared almost 400 people who had tested positive for COVID-19, 14 days or more after they received one or two doses of the vaccine"

and

"The companies said on April 1 that their vaccine was around 91% effective at preventing COVID-19"

COVID-19 is the disease whereas testing checks for presence of portions of the virus. The Phase III clinical trials looked for symptomatic infection. Without details on the clinical progression of the vaccinated who tested positive, there's nothing to see here.

Also,

"But among patients who had received two doses of the vaccine, the variant’s prevalence rate was eight times higher than those unvaccinated - 5.4% versus 0.7%."

This indicates that if the immune system is primed to identify a certain variant, its performance is hindered as opposed to a naive immune system.

The actual paper is at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.06.21254882v... From what I can tell, the median age of the fully vaccinated is 61 and 46 for the unvaccinated. (table 1). And the comparison for the SA variant is between 8 in the former vs 1 in the latter. Sensationalist reporting.

mulvya··on Stack Overflow Isn’t Very Welcoming – It’s Time for That to Change
If there are people who need an answer, and people happy to provide that answer ... what is the downside ...?

Turnover/churn. If a Q/A site allowed basic questions then the site would be flooded with them since the population of novices greatly exceeds sophomores or experts. Moderation would need to keep up with silo-ing these Qs into the 'novice area' you propose. Experts would need to sift more to get to the interesting, challenging or novel Qs if moderation can't keep up, which might affect the retention of these users, thus diminishing the resource pool available on the site.

To me it's clear that tact and grace is called for, and is currently mostly missing, when directing askers of basic Qs to existing answers, whether on- or off-site but there is such a thing as tragedy of the commons. Some stewardship and curation is required to maintain an acceptable SNR.

mulvya··on FFmpeg 4.0 released
Generates a histogram of pixel values in a frame and then,

in normal mode, calculates a (weighted) measure of the variance in pixel values.

in diff mode, calculates a (weighted) measure of the variance in differences of pixel count between two neighbouring values (if 800 pixels have value 112 and 1400 pixels have value 113, then the (abs) difference is 600)

mulvya··on FFmpeg 4.0 released
This is a release and the Changelog is reporting changes relative to the last release (3.4 series). HEVC NVDEC was added to the tree in Nov '17 and 3.4 was branched off in Oct.
mulvya··on AV1 Release
Mea culpa.

Already added - http://git.videolan.org/?p=ffmpeg.git;a=commit;h=0dc11d8bbd4... and http://git.videolan.org/?p=ffmpeg.git;a=commit;h=99cc3cf7a26...

mulvya··on AV1 Release
A wrapper within FFmpeg for libaom is only a few hours work

Batteries and bikeshedding on the Devel ML not included...

mulvya··on AV1 Release
No. With the bitstream only just frozen, I expect decoder/encoder wrappers for libaom to take a few months.
mulvya··on Stack Overflow Culture
> They give short extremely to the point answers without much depth.

Typically, this is because these questions are a minor (cosmetic or trivial) variation* of an question asked many times already, and usually addressed in the docs. Search results aren't likely to put this question at the top of results, so the aim is to resolve the OP's need.

*so technically not a duplicate.

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