nemo44x

We are going to have so much high quality furniture.

We actually do have standards for some software engineering. Claude isn’t writing anything that is life/death critical.

Static analysis for example. Although I’ve heard that LLMs can now do that if a user wanted it.

Everything Anthropic says absolves them of responsibility and is self serving.

We are living in such a weird, amazing, and miraculous time. It’s completely surreal.

Yes. And yes you can churn slop. And I’m sure many will and many will get stuck with a source base that grows bigger than LLMs can cope with and becomes unmaintainable.

But you can also have many engineers operating it, testing outputs like you would in a real factory, etc.

Will be interesting to see how this pattern evolves. If it even makes sense.

> At the same time, we'll keep helping people focus on the work that matters most, build new skills, and, where it makes sense, find new opportunities across Microsoft.

Anthropic is already doing this - some software engineers have redeployed into research roles, for example. “Redeploying” is going to be the latest HR trend I think.

The calculus may be that DeepSeek (or similar) + human is good enough and that the frontier simply won’t have the growth to get to the next level that differentiates them and justifies the token cost. They get stuck in a race to the bottom which is opposite of what they want.

The $100/month guy for inference isn’t the prize. It’s the thousands of companies spending millions/month.

It’s not unusual for someone to spend $5k in a week. 2 guys at my place just spend $150,000 over 3 months building out a factory.

We are aggressively exploring open weight models now.

Their entire goal is to get to AGI via RSI ASAP. If they do they win. But if not they’ll be a legendary story of a flying too high too fast.

That they are IPOing tells me that the massive amount of funding they need is no longer available privately and that this is their 1 opportunity to get the funds they think they need to get there.

Biggest risk is the growth stalls as everyone moves to open weight models. They certainly like telling stories.

I’d challenge that and say that the opportunity cost was massive. So you needed to be super precise and confident in what to spend the time doing.

Now that opportunity cost is much lower so experimentation is more practical than before.

They do when they see the cost savings and ROI. It’s the one reliable thing that makes a company switch from any tech to another one.

Looking at our AI spend today vs 1 year ago we have massive changes. Anything that can bring this under control and potentially save millions a year is being explored.

We will probably end up with a combo of open weight models for most work and frontier models for key projects. For now. Who knows what the landscape looks like in 1 year.

Everyone I know is either starting to or planning to switch to open weight models. Cost savings are just too good.

This is what will cook frontier AI and probably prevent the investment scale to happen for AGI. Humans + good enough cheap AI is just more economic and unbelievably productive. Like why we fly on jet technology from the 1960s still with incremental improvements.

It’s why Anthropic is desperate for capital and trying to get to a scale where AGI appears. But I’m afraid they won’t get there in time and the money to build the bigger model will have dried up.

Their thesis is there won’t be companies when they achieve AGI. They are trying to fund that accomplishment by selling tokens to the companies they plan on making obsolete eventually. Essentially getting everyone to fund their own demise.

It’s shovels all the way down. Nvidea is selling shovels to frontier model labs who are selling shovels to AI companies who are selling shovels to actual businesses who have nicer power point presentations, a lot more dashboards, and some inference driven workflows.

Patriot. God bless, Mr. Zuckerberg.

It's probably because with the release of each model it is becoming more and more difficult to see how a person's livelihood and way of life continues. Uncertainty stacked on uncertainty.

How will it pan out, no one really knows. The leading frontier labs are continuing to hire aggressively. But who knows for how long or for long or near-term goals.

There's a high degree of variability in dentists in large part because it's a rare job that requires knowledge and experience as well as dexterity.

I had a conversation with a guy that is a leading endodontist that trains many dentists in the area and he said a lot of the young guys are just not that good. And that the good ones really stand out. It's just difficult to find people that have the smarts, intuition, and physical talent to do the job well. Experience really helps in this field. And yes, there are dishonest dentists that do unneccesasry work so best off getting a second opinion for anything non-trivial if you don't trust your dentist.

Same reason banks sell mortgages rather than just buying all the homes.

Mongo’s biggest sell was it increases developer productivity so backlogs were burned down faster and managers all benefited.

AI greatly removes that differentiator. AI doesn’t care if it needs schemas or if there’s an idiomatic driver for Python or Node. Even schema changes aren’t an issue and most databases support complex data anyways.

I think you’re just imagining things. Our teams have exclusively used LLMs for coding for 6 months. Literally 0 lines written by hand. 100% more PRs than a year ago and code quality is as high due to thousands of tests.

Much of the code needs to be performant and the LLM knows this and grinds on it. Less and less human inspection is needed.

I think 90% of software can be written like this today.

The LLM. And you can use an alternate LLM to antagonize the coding LLM.

You’re simply testing outputs. Make a spec but ultimately ungodly amounts of tests can be built quickly to ensure the program is outputting the right things.

> It really sucks at designing types and apis though and when it creates types and apis it doesn't think or plan for the future way the system will evolve (even if it's known up front how the system will evolve).

Does that really matter? Those are things so that humans can better understand and extend a code base. That mattered when writing code was expensive and took time.

Now if it can pass all the tests it’s fine. If there’s an issue just have it rewrite things immediately. New bug? Generate a new test and rewrite code.

All, or many, of the old things that mattered just sort of don’t anymore.

I think it’s what customers want though as it gets you higher and closer to that high they’re always chasing. That it can kill you is a marketing feature if anything.

We create 25% more new jobs that never existed before than jobs that are forever destroyed as obsolete every year. In the USA.

Time to get AC in homes. Especially in the Uk Where homes are generally terraced/attached, small, and decently insulated. The costs to operate wouldn’t be too painful.

Secondly, much of Western Europe (except Norway) needs to figure out how to bring energy costs way down. It’s so expensive compared to the USA and Canada and people take home significantly less money.

It can but it takes a very long time to bring food online. To develop real estate.

Especially when the real numbers of immigrants is much higher.

It takes time to train more doctors, to raise more cattle, and to build more homes. Way more than the rate of immigration over the last 30 years.

It makes rich families richer though. But it hasn’t been good for working people and the community culture the country once had.

And it’s a good thing all that wealth is evenly distributed and not hoarded nearly exclusively by a small class of families.

I can assure you mass immigration is not good for the working class families of this country despite what an economist might say in aggregate. The reality is more people drives up the costs of food, shelter, medicine, and other resources that are not very elastic.

Don’t overthink it.

I don’t know but I wonder if people that have insomnia or similar difficulty falling asleep (anxiety, etc) struggle with a CPAP. I am fortunate to fall asleep very easily, usually within 3-5 minutes or even faster. And I use a CPAP (nose saddles not a full mask), and prefer it to not using one while sleeping. The way it just opens all passageways is relaxing and I think helps fall asleep even more quickly.

If you truly have sleep apnea it’s not just about feeling refreshed. There could be other reasons you’re tired.

But sleep apnea is really bad for your heart and lungs and does damage to them over time.

Get 2 opinions. And yes about weight - some people won’t have Apnea if they get their BMI to like 25 or whatever.

Saying that I have a CPAP machine and love it.