You’re right that GMs are much faster ideating, I point this out later in the essay. But they also spend longer on falsification, even in absolute terms.
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You’re right that GMs are much faster ideating, I point this out later in the essay. But they also spend longer on falsification, even in absolute terms.
Do you have an example of a "drawing" of a theorem, in this context? (I've seen these for fairly trivial theorems but not for more complex ones, so I'm curious.)
Anyone know what 'temporal programming' refers to? Sounds intriguing.
"Often the smarter people are more prone to trendy, fashionable thinking because they can pick up on things, they can pick up on cues more easily, and so they’re even more trapped by it than people of average ability"
(1) Employees tend to ape founders, so whatever founders care about & value (in their actions) tends to filter down.
(2) Getting aspects of culture to stick (e.g. transparency) is hard, and requires real commitment from founders. So whatever sticks will tend to be whatever founders care enough to really push through.
(3) Founders tend to hire people who are 'like them', so a critical mass of employees end up being very similar to the founders.
I agree with the general point, though - you need a certain amount of baseline opportunity to be able to do this stuff. That is a problem that needs fixing.
1. The talks were awesome 2. It was ridiculously well-organised (and the food was superb) 3. There was a really good crowd there
I look forward to more YC events in London!
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I think my argument can be modified to be defensible, but agree that the post does not reflect this as it stands.
If this were true, then engineer salaries would not be rising so much. The demand for good engineers vastly outstrips supply.
Also, any explanation that requires you to posit mass irrationality is usually a bad one.
1. Some friends I know use Snapchat for 'photos they don't want other people to see'.
2. Therefore, most people use Snapchat to send porn.
3. Therefore, Snapchat should be valued as an amateur porn company.
Do you really believe that's a valid argument? And that all of the 350m+ photos sent on Snapchat every day are porn?
A valuation isn't just based on how much money a company makes right now. It's based on how much money the company's expected to make over its lifetime. Snapchat's valuation [1] is based on expectations of high future revenue.
(There was a point where Facebook & Twitter had 0 revenue, too. Now they're both multi-billion dollar public companies.)
These stories always cause scepticism, especially in the HN crowd. It's the most common response ("What?! 4 BILLION!?"), and an easy one (i.e. doesn't require much thought), but it's the wrong one.
Sure, you can argue over the exact number, but let's consider the reverse claim: are you really willing to bet that an app that processes 350m+ messages every day is worth nothing? If not, what would you value it at?
Answering that question requires hard thought; reflexive scepticism doesn't. And if you were really imaginative & thought it through, you'd probably arrive at quite a high number.
For many consumer apps, the path to market dominance involves offering a service for free at first, and then 'monetizing' later on. The whole point of venture capital is to allow that (common) pattern to happen; the result is massive companies - like Dropbox and Airbnb - that weren't always cashflow positive, and that meaningfully benefit the world.
Perhaps it was crazy of Snapchat to turn down $3 billion, and maybe they really are overvalued, but it seems obvious that they are worth a lot of money [2].
[1] Although valuations make great media stories, valuation is really not that meaningful a number for private VC-funded companies.
[2] If you don't agree, consider that both Mark Zuckerberg & the founders of Snapchat disagree with you. So either you're smarter than Mark Zuckerberg & the founders of Snapchat, or you're probably wrong.
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DD is a great solution if you're in a service business or are charging a similar set of people each month. It's a less good solution if you're doing e-commerce/physical goods, since you need fast payment timings/clearing. That's the sort of problem cards (and therefore Stripe) are optimized for.
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>> "I read reports and testimonies of people getting better on it and athletes performing on it."
I think this is the wrong way round. When people make claims that stuff we've been eating for thousands of years (bread, cereals, grains etc.) are actually really bad for us, the burden of proof is on them.
If anyone could actually prove that wheat causes weight gain and health problems (independent of other variables), they'd be a good candidate for the next Nobel in Medicine.
Most studies I've read show that Paleo is no better or worse than a normal healthy diet. In some cases e.g. when you're an athlete, it'll be actively worse, since carbs are a basic source of fuel. [1]
On top of this, Paleo promotes some claims that are ridiculous, e.g. that burning fat for fuel == burning carbs for fuel. They have totally different consequences.
Yes, eating lots of carbs is bad for you. So is eating lots of fatty food. Loads of calories and not enough exercise means your body stores fat. That's sort of obvious, and nothing to do with any special properties that 'carbs' have.
Just eat plenty of vegetables (esp green / strongly coloured ones), and make sure you get adequate amounts of protein & carbs. To lose weight, make sure calories in < calories out. That's the general pictures studies give us.
Be extremely sceptical of anything claiming otherwise. I'm not sure why intelligent people can get so caught up in fads - such as Paleo - that are backed up by pseudo-science. My theory is that they appeal to the contrarian in us - after all, they're delightfully counter-intuitive in some ways (eating lots of steak can be good for me?!).
You've got to have contrarian ideas to be really intelligent, but not all contrarianism is good.
[1] I say this as a semi-pro runner who has tried running on a Paleo diet and found it disastrous. You cannot burn fat with the same efficiency as you can 'burn' carbs (i.e. use glycogen). It doesn't work that way. And if you still think it does, look up the diets of the top 10 athletes in basically any sport & explain to me why none of them are on Paleo.
He's complaining about the fact that they don't really know what they've learned, they've just learned to 'say the right things', specifically because of the way they have been taught. Which is precisely the point I'm making.
e.g. "After a lot of investigation, I finally figured out that the students had memorized everything, but they didn’t know what anything meant."
"Similarly, since the most successful startups generally ride some wave bigger than themselves, it could be a good trick to look for waves and ask how one could benefit from them. The prices of gene sequencing and 3D printing are both experiencing Moore's Law-like declines. What new things will we be able to do in the new world we'll have in a few years? What are we unconsciously ruling out as impossible that will soon be possible?"
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