845 karma · joined July 20, 2009
I took econometrics on a dare once. You can't just describe a real-world change as an exogenous shock in general.
I get told "no" a lot.
I schwätz noch d'Muddasprooch.
I studied to be an actuary, but I spent 15 years writing systems software. I am cursed to live a life being intimately familiar with both Excel/VBA and Linux kernel internals.
"I HAVE NO TOOLS BECAUSE I'VE DESTROYED MY TOOLS WITH MY TOOLS." https://www.usenix.org/system/files/1311_05-08_mickens.pdf
Capitalism kills markets.
By losing its grip on shared norms, mores, and folkways, society inadvertently builds the very thing that libertarians fear most: an omnipresent, heavy-handed state. However, it's worth mentioning that this doesn't happen because of a socialist conspiracy, irrespective of one's understanding of what socialism actually is; rather, it happens because a society without internal and cultural self-regulation must necessarily invite a tyrant to step in and govern by his application of law just to keep that society from tearing itself asunder.
topcolor: aaaaaa
pronoun.is/they/them
[ my public key: https://keybase.io/nrr; my proof: https://keybase.io/nrr/sigs/mUwfAxr143F7sGzkfa65fPWi1OnSD3zhNyaE0UdmROA ]
Linus found religion in a stable system call interface somewhere in the 2.4 series, and it's made the Linux container experience rather nice. Windows moves that particular kind of interface stability much, much further into userspace, and it makes the Windows Containers situation untenable.
NRR-WT1; wsl --version
WSL version: 3.0.1.0
Kernel version: 6.18.40.1-1
WSLg version: 1.0.79
MSRDC version: 1.2.7214
Direct3D version: 1.611.1-81528511
DXCore version: 10.0.26100.1-240331-1435.ge-release
Windows version: 10.0.26300.9457
NRR-WT1;Upgrade the container host? Re-bake your container images. It's a massive pain in the ass.
No, but it's how I formulate hypotheses for testing. It's why that claim I labeled as verging on vacuously true is uninteresting: how the fuck do I even go about testing that?
> The “mathematically uninteresting” claim would be the parsimonious one: as low temperatures go up, cold deaths will decrease, for a net reduction in temperature-related deaths.
I fear I may be misunderstanding what you mean by parsimonious here. There's a scientific sense wherein there's an explanation that requires fewer assumptions, and in this sense, I'm still not understanding the argument you're proposing. Simplest hypothesis under what model? I think is the question I want to ask here???
The unfortunate part is that it's prima facie unclear that the climate system would be conservative in this way. I'll admit that's due to some ignorance on my part about how climate systems work, but it's also that ignorance that fuels an understanding that there are variables that I can't account for, let alone control for, which limits the kind of modeling that I can undertake to understand this problem (and, as a consequence, your argument, whatever that happens to be).
Forgive me if it seems like I'm asking stupid questions, but I'm legitimately trying to understand your contributions as positively contributory. I have no real priors for this that I'm trying to validate or invalidate.
You had made a remark in another post somewhere that there was an unfalsifiable claim in asserting that people will die from both extreme cold and extreme heat, and that claim is one I don't really find all that interesting. Mathematically, it's verging on vacuously true, very firmly in "Yeah, so what?" territory.
I'm more curious if there's some (minimally associative but preferably causal) relationship between those extremes that you might know about; e.g., for every linear step increase in heat deaths, we realize some exponential step increase in cold deaths.
It isn't actually perfectly inelastic, but looking at land reclamation (and erosion!) relative to the ease with which places to live can be added to a locale, the supply of land is relatively inelastic. Even then, that kind of misses the core of George's argument about land value.
George himself distinguished land from labor and capital by looking at it through the lens of whether the economic value of a piece of land needed to be attributable entirely to improvements undertaken on that land. This is his "all natural opportunities or forces," and those are where the constraint lies.
For land reclamation in particular, there are two things to look at: (1) the value attributable to the land reclamation effort; and (2) the residual site value. (2) is land rent, and the Georgist model really is predicated on the relationship the surrounding community has with a piece of land. As it goes, if the community's feelings toward, say, a reclaimed waterfront are tepid, that reclaimed land won't have much value (even if the land reclamation were undertaken at great expense!), and won't command high land rents.
One of the first things I do in any new-to-me project is set breakpoints in the integration tests and start stepping through the code so that I can establish some mental context. However, if there aren't integration tests, I begin writing them so that I can walk around with my debugger.
I harped on checking someone's ability to debug code back when I interviewed candidates, in part because I found that people who could debug effectively could also sniff out bad code. It was something of a bonus that I also happened to select for candidates who could explain their debugging strategies and what that meant for the software they were working on.
Ada explicitly settled on `Character` being an enumeration type based on a specific character set encoding. When I learned Ada 95, the ARM specified the ISO 8859-1 character set for `Character`, likewise with `Wide_Character` and `Wide_Wide_Character` explicitly settling on 16- and 32-bit implementations of UCS. I wish more language specifications made decisions like this.
D following suit with tying its `char`, `wchar`, and `dchar` to UTF-8, UTF-16, and UTF-32 is commendable.
Looking at this from an investment standpoint (as if, e.g., I were establishing funding requirements for a pension fund or an annuity or some other such financial vehicle), MAUs are a nice to have because they can establish a counterfactual[0] for volume, but I'd be looking at the performance of X's products relative to the financial performance of X's customers buying those products (e.g., for advertisers, things like conversion and customer acquisition cost come to mind), legal exposure (because of, e.g., CSAM distribution) and other tail risks, and also whether there's an existential risk to the liberal democratic order that enables the financial vehicle I'm working with to operate at all, among other portfolio-level risks.
--
0: Well, kinda. The counterfactual actually comes in when we ask questions like, "If the reach changes, what happens to the economic performance?" Relying on MAUs as a baseline measure of the reachable population based on observation enables us to establish these kinds of counterfactuals.
Will it though? I'm curious what the empirical basis is for this causal claim, especially given that it ignores the wealth of gray area in between these two extremes. (That goes notwithstanding that I have zero idea what is meant by either "minimizing shareholder value" or how a flattened economy could look as an operationalized outcome. Neither of these are accepted terms of art with precise definitions.)
There are some obvious counterexamples to look at, wherein a hypothetical firm doesn't intentionally maximize shareholder value or chooses explicitly not to:
- A firm can choose to pursue long-term productivity gains;
- A firm can pay higher wages or provide better working conditions and still generate substantial shareholder gains;
- A firm can keep its earnings rather than pay dividends to have cash on hand for capital improvements; or
- A firm can accept a haircut on its margins to expand along some axis, like manufacturing capacity or market share.
Shareholder value is usually taken to be a function of the firm's expected future cash on hand (or, more precisely, the equity claims on that expected future cash on hand) and its exposures to various risks to that cash on hand (optionally quantified by people like me!), and the idea of maximizing shareholder value needs to be understood as having some kind of time horizon. Commonly, in the post-Jack Welch era, this time horizon is three months.
On a much longer time horizon, however, sacrificing short-term shareholder gains for long-term productive capacity can very well be analyzed as shareholder value maximization.
> Do you really want to live in a pre-industrial agrarian society?
This seems to treat the grandparent post's social insurance and institutional design argument that shareholder primacy has contributed to the institutional arrangement that makes intergenerational care difficult as though it means, what, capitalism is bad, so we should return to farming.
I'm unsure that I can draw a comparison between these two arguments. They're very different, and the parent post's reply doesn't establish the premise it needs. Industrialization and shareholder primacy aren't binary choices, and the mere existence of modern industrial prosperity doesn't establish the fact that our particular institutional arrangement producing it is in fact necessary for that prosperity.
Only kinda!
„Hielt man fuer UFOs aus dem All / darum schickte ein General / eine Fliegerstaffel hinterher“ They believed that the balloons were unidentified flying objects from outer space. The general panicked and sent a squadron to investigate.
„Dabei waren dort am Horizont nur 99 Luftballons“ However, what they found were only 99 balloons.
Still, there was a problem: „99 Duesenflieger / jeder war ein grosser Krieger / hielten sich fuer Captain Kirk“ The pilots of those jet fighters thought of themselves as warriors on par with Captain Kirk (which is funny; Starfleet is primarily a scientific organization that only incidentally wields weapons).
The neighboring countries concurred: „Die Nachbarn haben nichts gerafft / und fuelten sich gleich angemacht“ They weren't able to suss out anything about these activities and felt provoked by them.
Here's where the war ministers make a show of force though: „99 Kriegsminister / Streichholz und Benzinkanister / hielten sich fuer schlaue Leute / witterten schon fette Beute / riefen Krieg und wollten Macht“ The war ministers brought a proverbial match and gas can to the whole affair. They thought themselves shrewd and crafty and could smell the scent of prey, so they called for war.
„Mann, wer haette das gedacht / dass es einmal soweit kommt / wegen 99 Luftballons“ Man, who could've thought that it came this far because of 99 balloons?
> 99LB was more popular even in the english speaking world
This song predates me by just a handful of years, so I never caught it during its radio heyday, but I can't verify this assertion from personal experience. Perhaps this is a UK-centric view? I'm unsure that much of this kind of cultural exchange made it to the US.
The English translation "99 Red Balloons" is considerably different as far as the details go.
I don't know if I'd say they have an even, predictable quality, but on an actuarial basis, Detroit certainly makes for easier claim severity modeling than anything out of Ingolstadt, Muenchen, Stuttgart, or Wolfsburg.
That said, I don't really understand how quality maps to cars beyond what my comprehension of Japanese has allowed me to read about how Toyota's industrial engineering contrasts against Ford's. My first may have been a 1971 Opel GT that I salvaged by bringing home in parts on a bicycle-drawn trailer as a teenager, but I only ever wrenched on it. I never drove it.
No??? Revealed preference is dependent on what information is known. The analysis is made easier if the information is perfect, but that is not at all a prerequisite to being able to lean on revealed preference.
> In fact, the revealed preferences is for TVs that appear not to spy on you, that's why they hide that information!
Exactly! Consider though that, as the information landscape changes, so does the revealed preference. Notably, when things like TVs spying on their buyers comes to light, a preference can be revealed that buyers don't want TVs that spy on them.
Like, it's entirely rational for LG to want to hide this fact about their televisions, provided that they have the inkling that this would be unpopular. Their behavior in trying to suppress this press leads me to believe that they know exactly how unpopular this is, and they're trying to get away with it anyway.
I'd urge reading up on revealed preference and product discovery. It cuts both ways in that, sure, a company can offer a product on the market that no buyer asked for and have it sell well, but then, the media can expose some rather unsavory facts about that same product and subsequently (consequently?) have it not sell.
> Then why do businesses have sales? If prices don't matter why would businesses choose to make less money per sale?
It's worth picking this apart. Prices not mattering is usually expressed in economics-ese as price-inelastic demand, and that's usually not what's happening. Sales are a mechanism for drumming up demand for a product, with the hope that the additional volume will compensate for the marginally lower margin.
It's true that the National Flood Insurance Program does this, but that's only for flooding (which, admittedly, is a big part of hurricane damage...). Flood coverage is however not a standard rider on homeowner's insurance policy products, and I'm also unsure whether it can ever be. I've only ever seen it offered as an additional policy product.
The concern over pricing below the actuarially fair value is well-placed[0], but I'd urge being precise.
--
If I can ever get around to writing about it or polishing up what I have enough that I feel comfortable with someone else looking at it, I'll poke you directly about some of what I've been working on over on the Fossil side of things.
> If you’re familiar with citc/commit cloud, for example, we’ll be doing something along those lines.
Oh, hey, yeah. I'm not first-hand familiar with that tooling (I've never been at Google), but there's a similar(-ish) workflow I've been kind of missing from Plan 9, so I've been hammering on that a little. Something like `m1 client connect $remote_url --name $client_name` and `m1 workspace bind M: --client_name $client_name --name $workspace_name`, which is a slightly more obtuse take on running `9fs` to authenticate and bind the sources server into the current namespace.
I've found that, at the time of a client connecting, there's a lot of value for me in having, like, the last however many commit manifests and seldom much else as far as file data goes. I can pull down the raw blocks containing that data on demand, and at least for now, commit manifests contain a complete enumeration of what's in the file tree at that commit. That's enough for me to rehydrate a browsable filesystem projection of the repository before I decide that I need to mirror blocks locally.
Yes! It's one of those things I've carried over to bitty box distributed environments.
> You posted before Steve's response[0]. Does that help?
It does a little, yeah, but I'll admit that I still feel somewhat teased by it rather than properly informed. As I wrote, I'm close enough to the technical details of this problem that I'm able to use my imagination. I wouldn't be surprised if some of my own proposed designs mesh up with what Steve and co. are doing.
I just want some more concrete messaging "from the horse's mouth," as it were, about what's being undertaken to mitigate shortcomings in Git's architecture for folks in the enterprise space of technology and procurement stripes alike who might find it an interesting contrast to GitHub Enterprise.
At least, that's the reason why I prefer still having kanji around.
My criticism of TFA is grounded less in refusing to tell us about the secret sauce than it is, uh, not giving us anything at all technologically substantive to chew on, I guess. I can certainly use my imagination given my own experience in these particular salt mines, and I know that Steve and team are good for the technology, but I'm nonetheless wondering who is intended to be TFA's audience.
I happen to have technical context around this problem[1], and I was rather underwhelmed by the announcement. At least mention how much of a pain in the ass the pack-protocol wire format is! Give those of us who are technical and knee-deep in Git's business something to commiserate over!
That all said, Fossil mentioned! \o/
--
0: Yeah, they mention agentic development patterns and constraints that monorepo-oriented patterns run up against, but the details are handwaved away. What about agentic development patterns in particular stress Git out? For those of us who don't use agents or have limited exposure to them, this isn't especially obvious, but the usage patterns are almost certainly reflected in other uses of Git that small-ish shops would encounter.
1: I've even looked long and hard at possibly taking my own crack at reworking Git's object store to be instead more like an append-only log, with an eye toward alleviating some of the problems that, e.g., heavy GitOps workflows can sometimes cause, let alone the fervor around agentic development. Like, this space is ripe for someone to come in and do it better, but version control is a technical tool for technical people.
I'm honestly fine with whatever definitions, but they need to be able to cross the chasm from concept to criterion in conjunction or disjunction to be useful as a means of discriminating. So far, Walter's proposed definitions for monopolies and free markets together fail this test even if they're separately some measure of fine, inaccuracies relative to their term-of-art counterparts notwithstanding.
--
A free market in this construction must necessarily lack monopolies. There is no counterfactual observation that could falsify the proposition because the definition of free market doesn't admit a counterexample.
Congratulations. That's an epistemic trap.