You must be new to IT. Software businesses rarely truly die off (unless they're really small one person operations). Even Expertsexchange is still around: https://go.experts-exchange.com/
27,999 karma · joined February 8, 2013
You must be new to IT. Software businesses rarely truly die off (unless they're really small one person operations). Even Expertsexchange is still around: https://go.experts-exchange.com/
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The real question is: what's the rate of growth for capital returns vs labor returns? If capital returns are accelerating, over 50-100 years, yeah, we will still end up in techno feudalism.
During an all hands where quarterly earnings were presented for a very large American company, the live audience were obviously employees.
The CFO came on stage and was very enthusiastic about the labor market "loosening". Employees were clapping. Unsure if because they didn't understand the meaning of that statement or because just to appear supportive of leadership.
I was thinking: they're talking about us, turkeys.
Caviar progressist.
Or are you an actual graphics designer or the like, who lost their job to AI?
Despite what you hear techies say, "really bad software" didn't really exist before, except for some very small enterprise niches. Stuff like Windows, Photoshop or other categories that techies complain, has always hovered between "bad" and "above average" with some moments of hitting "quite good". Really bad software was software that barely did its main job.
Well, really bad software is now super cheap to create.
That won't really change software economics outside of corporate malpractice (those small enterprise niches) or regulatory capture.
Average software is probably only marginally cheaper and good software will be as expensive as always because expectations have shifted up.
If you really did it with 1.5 people and it is profitable, you will have 1000 clones in 1 year. The only moats will be first mover advantage (slim), connections (all right) and the possible secrecy of how much you're making (very slim).
I know LLMs have some emergent properties. But at the the day they're regression/forecast machines. And those machines ultimately point to the mean, which is definitely in the box. Heck, it IS the box itself.
For a while, yes.
The web was successful because the installation cost was 0.
I have good news for you, so is all life. And even our closest relatives, the great apes.
We have succeeded overall despite (because?) of these traits.
This is a phenomenon that dates back to IBM doing this in the 60s-70s-80s.
And for leather, it would probably be worth it investing in clean tanning and leather processing. It will be a long time before everyone gives up beef & co, so we will have raw hides for a long time. We might as well accept this and use a wonderful natural material that could save us a lot of CO2 emissions, micro and nano plastics, VOCs, PFAS and all the myriad other issues with second generation sytntgetics (polyester, acrylic, nylon, etc).