1,155 karma · joined June 10, 2009
hi@ochronus.com
About AI: Unless there's another breakthrough, AI is not getting significantly better. A junior with 2 years of proper training easily surpasses AI in judgment and arch design skills, etc. - and you will need seasoned engineers to make the calls and shepherd AI even. Where will those people come from if nobody is investing in juniors?
We used to brush that off with the "we'll fix all of that once we've shipped", now we brush it off with "doesn't matter, AI can fix it later easily". This applies to knowledge about the code, domains and quality itself, too.
To me, this is a reasonable tradeoff to discuss, and sticking to either extreme ("AI is cancer" and "AI is the silver bullet") feels silly.
There's real risk here, and I do see a lot of seniors act like kids in the candy store. That speaks volumes to what AI really unlocks (cheap experimentation, for one!), but also warrants caution.
Based on the data (not great quality tbh...) we have, the net speedup is more realistically around 5-10% of the total time of software engineers, and we're yet to see the cost of that speedup.