Hacker News Reader

omalleyton New AI classifier for indicating AI-written text

I bet you can utterly defeat this by adding one or two typos into the text

omalleyton Why do you waste so much time on the internet?

Variable reward schedules. Like slot machines.

omalleyton Tell HN: Turned 44 today and I'm lost

Yes, you have reached the zenith of your career. Congratulations. You are self-sufficient and able to provide for the financial needs of your family. This is a true victory.

Now, it is time to focus on people other than yourself. Most other advice on here is awful; it amounts to different directions to run on the hedonic treadmill.

Instead, you have to give back now. What good is there to be done, that only you could do? What will be worse off if you don't lend a hand? This can range from finding better ways to support and mentor your children, to donating time to tutor students in programming, to building a well in Africa. Think hard about what you really care about, and then work hard to bring that into being.

omalleyton Consumer prices rose 8.5% in March – highest since 1981

> 2. They're fibbing on specific prices.

Zillow rent index up 17%, CPI rent index up 5%

omalleyton What software engineers can learn from the rapid collapse of Fast

I think he means an LRU cache

omalleyton Are you nice or kind?

Nice is about mannerisms, kind is about actions.

omalleyton Ask HN: What is your “I don't care if this succeeds” project?

Interactive Latin:

https://www.interactivelatin.com

Classic Latin texts, where you can click on any word and see all possible translations

omalleyton Ask HN: What do you think of the Wordle guy not monetizing it?

He should create a free Wordle app that lets you play once daily, and then a $9.99 in-app upgrade that lets you play unlimited, that pops up after you’ve completed the word of the day. The unlimited users should still see the word of the day whenever a new one is available (to keep sharing high). Best of both worlds.

omalleyton Plans you're not supposed to talk about

The relevant concept here is what’s called “common knowledge.”

Systems behave differently is everyone knows that everyone knows that… (repeat ad infinitum)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_knowledge

omalleyton Show HN: Learn Latin through interactively reading the Classics

Thank you!

omalleyton Show HN: Learn Latin through interactively reading the Classics

Hi all! Creator here, I made this site to help on my journey as I learn Latin.

Go to any text and click on a word, and you'll see all of the possible definitions and inflections for that word. This has been helpful to me, as I struggle to keep track of all the noun case and verb tense rules in Latin. I hope others find this helpful, please let me know if you have any ideas that you think could make this even more useful!

omalleyton It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere

If that were true, inventories ("domestic stock") should be very high. Actually, they are at historic lows

omalleyton Beyond Smart

Humans care about innate qualities such as intelligence because they are looking for mates, and want the best genes for their children.

In this case, consider whether you would prefer to have children with a partner with a 150 IQ but who never develops a system to generate new ideas, or a partner with a 120 IQ who stumbles into a system / environment that allows them to generate new ideas.

Who would you prefer? Hard mode: justify your choice without invalidating the premises by saying something like, "Well, if the first person was really smarter, they would have developed such a system."

I speculate that most would prefer to have children with the first person, and then endeavor to teach their kids the second person's system.

omalleyton Did lead poisoning cause downfall of Roman Empire? The jury is still out

It controlled most all the resource-producing regions of Africa north of the Sahara. Russia and Germania were densely wooded or covered in plains, in either case sparsely populated and not of substantial interest to a rich Mediterranean power. Persia was the only viable region of expansion, but after Trajan’s inability to incorporate them, the effort seems to have been abandoned

omalleyton The World Economy Is Suddenly Running Low on Everything

Inflation hedges, such as precious metals IMO

omalleyton Consumer Prices in U.S. Increase by Most Since 2009

Except now the US gov't has so much debt, it can't afford to ever get back to normal

omalleyton Consumer Prices in U.S. Increase by Most Since 2009

Right, that doesn't sound like a supply chain issue, that sounds like a decade of structural issues leading to a perfect setup for structural inflation

omalleyton Consumer Prices in U.S. Increase by Most Since 2009

There's something called the equity risk premium. This is essentially the extra rate of return investors want to get in order to hold stocks rather than Treasury bonds. When inflation is high, the yield on Treasury bonds goes up. This means that, for the same equity risk premium, investors require a higher rate of return from stocks. Rate of return is approximately E/P (i.e. the inverse of P/E). So therefore, P/E must go down.

This is called P/E compression. It's why stocks don't perform as well during inflationary periods as physical assets (such as gold, silver, real estate, etc.)

omalleyton Consumer Prices in U.S. Increase by Most Since 2009

What factory makes used cars? It’s pretty hard to say there’s a “supply chain” for used vehicles

omalleyton I’m trying to understand hedonic adjustments

The US gov’t has a massive incentive to underreport inflation. When they underreport inflation (and people believe it), they are able to:

- pay less in interest on their debt - raise Social Security payments by less - inflate away the real value of the debt principal

The US gov’t has reached a record level of debt. It needs to cause massive inflation to devalue its debts, and it needs to lie about it.

omalleyton The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

Gold went up a lot in 2020. It’s underperformance in the past few months is because Treasury rates ripped higher, which made owning bonds more attractive. However, rates can’t rise much more, or the UD gov’t will be unable to service its debt. Therefore, gold has begun to climb again

omalleyton The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

Time to buy gold.

omalleyton Warren Buffett is right, inflation is running rampant

You don’t want cash during inflation. You want hard assets. Precious metals and real estate.

omalleyton Warren Buffett is right, inflation is running rampant

What about gold?

omalleyton Warren Buffett is right, inflation is running rampant

Bad. That’s why you don’t hold equities during hyperinflation. You hold physical assets, like gold and real estate.

omalleyton Warren Buffett is right, inflation is running rampant

Here’s the personal savings rate:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

And here’s the money velocity:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

When the economy actually reopens and people start spending again, prices will go boom.

omalleyton Warren Buffett is right, inflation is running rampant

Real rates become more negative with inflation though. US can’t afford high real rates, debt is 130% of GDP and Social Security is unfunded by $35T

omalleyton Warren Buffett is right, inflation is running rampant

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PPIACO

Commodity index up 12% year-on-year

omalleyton Warren Buffett is right, inflation is running rampant

Month-on-month inflation was 0.6% last month, with much of the economy still closed (which should be deflationary).

That’s a 7.5% annualized rate.

omalleyton Warren Buffett is right, inflation is running rampant

Financial assets going up is precisely a sign of inflation. Argentina has 40% inflation and the best performing stock market (if you denominate in Argentinian currency)