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orbifold

3,658 karma · joined February 19, 2014

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orbifold··on A generation of American men give up on college
That shouldn't happen if the cable is properly shielded, no?
orbifold··on How did American “wokeness” jump from elite schools to everyday life?
It just illustrates that if your definition of "radical left" is people super concerned with identity politics, pronouns, dead naming, gay rights and so on, then this is a very convenient and non threatening definition to the rich and powerful. In contrast the people that marched on the opening of the new European Central Bank in Frankfurt and had paramilitary skirmishes in the morning are far less amendable to corporate sponsorship and feel good diversity and inclusion messaging, such as modifying your corporate logo to feature the rainbow flag.

They literally and figuratively want to burn down / destroy the capitalist system, which is a far more dangerous leftist position than demanding a carbon tax or "breaking the glass ceiling", diversity training etc., which only make sense if you take the capitalist system for granted.

orbifold··on How did American “wokeness” jump from elite schools to everyday life?
Goldman Sachs is happy to sponsor floats for the gay pride parade (which incidentally is by now a huge commercial opportunity anyways), they were far less happy about the Occupy Wallstreet movement.
orbifold··on How Computationally Complex Is a Single Neuron?
Science is in large part also about story telling, especially in some areas. This is a good story, even if the details make it much less spectacular. They also produced very nice visualisations, which blew up on Twitter. All of these things are something to learn from as a scientist.
orbifold··on Why Erlang?
In reality the Elm compiler is probably orders of magnitude slower than clang, it just has much less work to do. A C++ compiler needs to parse / preprocess 100k+ lines of code even for something like hello world.
orbifold··on C# for Systems Programming
There was a research operating system by Microsoft https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midori_(operating_system), which used a dialect of C#, with some interesting extensions specific to operating system / driver development.
orbifold··on Nvui: A NeoVim GUI written in C++ and Qt
That will work on CentOS 5, which until recently unfortunately was one of the systems I had to work with.
orbifold··on Hospitalizations hit 100k in United States for first time since January
Ok thanks, that is informative. From a policy perspective I think it is a bad idea to basically promise everything can return to normal after vaccination, if this appears to not have worked out in places like Israel. In Germany they are phasing out free antigen tests and they are not required for vaccinated. Both seem like really short-sighted policies.
orbifold··on Hospitalizations hit 100k in United States for first time since January
I'm honestly not sure, maybe we are really just talking past each other. If there are no unvaccinated people left the relative risk reduction would be zero, that just follows from the definition. The absolute number of hospitalisations would still be meaningful. In the perfect world that everyone was vaccinated you would still see an age dependent decrease of effectiveness over time and relative to alpha. The real data from Israel seems to show that two vaccine doses in a very compliant population are not enough to effectively prevent the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths to rise without additional other measures (boosters, masks, etc.).
orbifold··on Hospitalizations hit 100k in United States for first time since January
It does make sense from the numbers 99% of hospitalised vaccinated, 98% of the population vaccinated you should conclude that the vaccine increases the risk of hospitalisation. That is why the number comes out negative. It would be the same in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccine_efficacy if you swapped the numbers for vaccine / placebo. The number would come out negative if in a trial the vaccine worked worse than the placebo. In your scenario you confuse yourself by calculating with percentages, I think.
orbifold··on Hospitalizations hit 100k in United States for first time since January
The original statements of vaccine efficacy were also not stratified in that way, were they? With delta you arrive at ~39% relative risk reduction of preventing a positive PCR (instead of >95%) and ~59% relative risk reduction of preventing hospitalisation. That would also be true if you randomly drew people from the population and conducted a study, no? Of course it still can mean that your individual benefit is much higher.
orbifold··on Hospitalizations hit 100k in United States for first time since January
What ultimately matters is if the hospitals can handle the load, delta is problematic because it produces new cases more quickly even among vaccinated and a sufficiently large number ends up in the hospital for it to become problematic. Both of these are demonstrated in Israel without invoking any kind of statistical analysis. Qualitatively the vaccine alone does not work well enough to lead to an R0 < 1, even when the most susceptible people are almost all vaccinated. I think that is super disappointing and at the same time I think it is really worrying that some politicians have not got that message in Germany / other places.
orbifold··on Hospitalizations hit 100k in United States for first time since January
Isn't what you ultimately care about in terms of policy the effectiveness on a population level? Of course you hit diminishing returns, when you start vaccinating people that were not at risk in the first place. I'm not arguing against getting the vaccine btw., I'm vaccinated myself. It is just disappointing that it alone won't solve the problem.
orbifold··on Hospitalizations hit 100k in United States for first time since January
Well it is easy to work it out yourself. Israelis >12 years are 78/22 vaccinated/not vaccinated. Among the hospitalised 59/41 are vaccinated/not vaccinated. So you have 59/78 = 0.756 and 41/22 = 1.864. Therefore the ratio of risks is 0.756/1.864 = 0.41. Which gives you 0.59 as I mentioned. I believe that is the same way the original efficacy of the vaccine was calculated in the first place. Admittedly I have a PhD in Physics not statistics, so I might be missing something :).
orbifold··on Hospitalizations hit 100k in United States for first time since January
The vaccine does unfortunately not work as well as hoped for in the case of the delta variant + a lot of people are still unvaccinated and delta is much more infectious. Cases and hospitalisations are also up in Israel https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-m.... Here is a corresponding news item in Science: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-.... It also suggests that the protection against hospitalisation of the vaccine is not as good as it was hoped for among older people. From the publicly available data for Israel you can estimate the vaccine efficacy against hospitalisations to be ~59% (relative risk reduction).
orbifold··on Lawrence Livermore claims a milestone in laser fusion
The aliens have to go to their cryopods :).
orbifold··on The Origins of Covid-19: An Investigation of the Wuhan Institute of Virology [pdf]
One thing that stood out to me is the summary of the gain of function research conducted at WIV. For example p.41 quotes a PhD study, which describes that they had developed all the necessary techniques to modify corona virus samples to be infectious to humans by modifying their spike proteins, without leaving any evidence of genetic manipulation:

> We established a reverse genetics system for coronaviruses, and based on the genomic backbone of WIV1, we established a scheme to replace the S gene without traces, constructed infectious BAC clones of 12 S-gene chimeric recombinant viruses, and successfully rescued. Four of these recombinant viral strains (including Rs4231, Rs4874, Rs7327, and SHC014) were tested for ACE2 utilization by these strains in humans, civets, and bats.

The report concludes:

> As such, it is clear that Shi and others at the WIV not only possessed the capability to genetically modify coronaviruses “without traces,” but were actively doing so in the years leading up to the current pandemic.

orbifold··on Single cortical neurons as deep artificial neural networks
One can regularise the derivative (a delta distribution) in several ways (e.g. a triangle at zero) and that is good enough (even from a theoretical perspective) to find an approximate gradient. Experimentally it is then possible to train deep neural networks with such non-linearities.
orbifold··on Single cortical neurons as deep artificial neural networks
That is not true, one can easily regularise the derivative, which is delta distribution, in some appropriate way, the easiest one being a 'triangle' centered at zero. That way one can actually easily train networks of McCulloch-Pitts neurons.
orbifold··on Longitudinal analysis shows durable immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection
Not really the anti-body count decays more quickly compared to that of a natural infection and does so dramatically especially for older people: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6.... This is the underlying reason that there is talk of boosters.
orbifold··on Euthanasia Coaster
Transhumanism (Human+) and the art that is made in its circle of influence is really something else.
orbifold··on TSMC eyes Germany as possible location for first Europe chip plant
It probably will be Bavaria with subsidies from the COVID relief fund. Intel has plans to that effect, as well: https://www.eenewseurope.com/news/intel-eyes-bavaria-wafer-f....
orbifold··on Electromagnetism is a property of spacetime itself, study finds
This paper is seriously flawed. I'm surprised it was published.
orbifold··on What really happened to Jack Ma?
If you piss off the US enough you will become suicidal in a Spanish prison.
orbifold··on The future of deep learning is photonic
Analog computers can't easily be mutliplexed and the integration density of memory + other compute is nowhere near as high as current SRAM/DRAM. This might change with memristive crossbars, but that still doesn't solve the structural part of the problem, since most deep learning workloads are nowadays structurally very far from a feed-forward perceptron and dynamic execution etc. are absent from analog approaches.
orbifold··on Ask HN: Help, my boss wants to us to use laptops from 2011 for development
I think overall it is completely reasonable to learn Java programming on a system that old. Waiting a bit for programs to start is not the end of the world.
orbifold··on NATO Classified Cloud Platform Compromised
In Germany this kind of task would land in the lap of T-Systems, SAP (who already do logistics / storage management and probably more for the Army) or one of these consultancies Delloite. You can't expect politicians to be competent.
orbifold··on Leopold Aschenbrenner: existential risk and German culture
CNRS has far more researchers employed than Oxford and they do research exclusively. It would be weird if they didn’t rank higher.
orbifold··on Saudi Operatives Who Killed Khashoggi Received Paramilitary Training in U.S.
What technologies aside from nuclear weapons are you referring to?
orbifold··on FaceTime on the web requires Chrome or Edge, no mention of Firefox
A percentage of phone sales always goes to factory workers in the form of wages...
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