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pemulis

704 karma · joined December 20, 2010

Mostly blockchain lately.

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pemulis··on We work a 4-day week and just raised $4.75m
I think that the two items are related, though. Could they have raised an A-round working just four days a week on a startup that was not profitable? I doubt it. If anyone knows of any cases where that happened, though, I'd be interested in seeing them.
pemulis··on Notes from UPenn's Forum on Brogramming and Sexism in Computer Science
The root of the matter isn't some egalitarian desire to have a 50/50 gender distribution in tech. It's about acting professional and not making your female colleagues feel uncomfortable or alienated.
pemulis··on Paul Graham has lost the plot
The claim in the article isn't that nobody would write and perform music without copyright, but that there would be less of it, and that it would be of lower quality. My claim is that labels, publishers, and music producers will exploit artists if copyright does not exist. I'm not trying to defend the business model of big music labels, so the example of Jade Ewen is neither here nor there. I'm defending the idea of limited intellectual property rights, because without them artists would be at an even greater disadvantage.

It's easier to see the problem in publishing or the game industry than in music, since musicians can make money from performances. Taking your example of Mendelssohn, he made his money from holding concerts and getting stipends from German monarchs. Authors and game designers can't hold performances, so the only way they can make money is by actually selling copies of their work, which requires intellectual property rights, or by hoping to attract a rich sponsor. If Amazon could sell books without having to give any royalties to the copyright holders, they would.

The idea that copyright only benefits the select few in the music industry isn't true, either. Labels often get caught plagiarizing songs that were written by small artists and handing them to big-name artists that they have under contract. With copyright, the smaller artists have an uphill battle. Without copyright, they have no weapons whatsoever.

pemulis··on Paul Graham has lost the plot
Would you have a problem with it if Steam started serving games without paying the developers? Also, when he talks about the cost of producing music, he isn't referring to the cost of setting up a microphone, which is miniscule. What he's talking about is the fact that it might take an artist over a month to create a two-and-a-half-minute song.
pemulis··on From YC Rejection to 10,000 Users in 1 Month (with stats)
I see what you mean, since Y Combinator is an institution now, and its selection process has an impact on the overall ecosystem. But let's say Startup A, which is top-tier, would become a $75M company with Y Combinator's help, but would become a $50M company without them. Meanwhile, Startup B, which is second-tier, would become a $3M company with Y Combinator, but would become a $30K company without them. Even if we throw profit out the window (which an investment group doesn't do, obviously), Y Combinator would add a greater total dollar value to Startup A than to Startup B, even though they would multiply the value of Startup B by 100x.

Also, elite prep schools do try to fill their classes with nothing but brilliant students, for a variety of reasons, including money and prestige. There are some negative consequences, to be sure, but it happens. At least Y Combinator increases the size of its classes every year, unlike prep schools.

pemulis··on From YC Rejection to 10,000 Users in 1 Month (with stats)
I don't really see the moral problem. YC is a group of investors, not a charity. Of course they're going to look for the kind of hardy founders who would succeed even if they got rejected.
pemulis··on Apple Acquires Chomp; App Store Search And Discovery To Be Completely Revamped
And submarining Android app discovery doesn't hurt.
pemulis··on Court Overturns Conviction of Ex-Goldman Programmer
I wonder if Teza even used the code Aleynikov took with him. If they didn't, would he even face civil penalties?
pemulis··on Yuri Milner: "stick with the founders as long as they’re pushing the envelope"
I wonder if we should take Milner's statement with a grain of salt. A reporter asked him, essentially, if he is planning on dumping his Facebook shares as soon as they IPO. There's no way his answer was going to be yes. He has to say no, and give some reason why not, no matter what his actual plans are.
pemulis··on How Much Is an Astronaut's Life Worth?
I see where you're coming from, but there are a number of things that would need to happen for this to work.

1) The Assad family would have to find the threat from NATO credible. 2) They would have to believe that there is no chance of defeating the rebels militarily and outlasting NATO bombardment. 3) The major power players in the Assad government would have to be willing to accept life in exile, with no opportunity for travel or engagement with the rest of the world. (Even Ben Ali, the dictator who left Tunisia semi-voluntarily, has an international warrant out for his arrest.) 4) Some country (presumably America) would have to be willing to either pay them a significant lump sum out of their own pocket or allow them to loot Syria before they leave.

You could pick any one of these apart.

pemulis··on How Much Is an Astronaut's Life Worth?
I was going off of a quick Google search of Bashar al-Assad's personal wealth, which led to an MSN article putting it at $112 billion (http://money.ca.msn.com/savings-debt/gallery/dictators-and-t...). Since huge chunks of the economy are controlled by the Assad family and close associates, and have been for decades, I figured that it would be reasonable to assume they had accumulated hundreds of billions of dollars by now.
pemulis··on How Much Is an Astronaut's Life Worth?
The total wealth of the Assad regime and their associates is in the hundreds of billions. You would have to pay them several trillion dollars at a minimum, though I doubt even that would be enough to convince them to leave.
pemulis··on Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales: MPAA chairman Christopher Dodd should be fired
That's not what the Citizens United decision says at all. It allows Super PACs to collect unlimited donations to run campaign ads supporting or opposing specific candidates. That may open the door to corruption in a certain sense, but it doesn't allow quid pro quo on active legislation.
pemulis··on Sal Khan explains SOPA / PIPA
The important part, as the video points out, is the phrase "enables or facilitates."

Google, Facebook, Youtube, and other sites that either allow user-generated content or generate links through web crawlers are "offering goods or services in a manner that (...) enables or facilitates [copyright violations]." Since linking facilitates copyright violation, this affects every site that doesn't manually vet every single link it makes.

pemulis··on Groupon falls below $20/share
That's just the inverse of going long on a stock: Other people observe you buying up many shares of a stock, causing the price to go up, which in turn causes your long bet to come through. The degree that this changes the market depends on how well-respected a trader you are.

For example, if Warren Buffett invests in a company, that company's stock generally rises. That's why Warren Buffett was able to get sweetheart deals when he made short-term loans to Goldman, Sachs and Bank of America recently. They were willing to pay him billions of dollars just for his imprimatur. Buffett received options to buy shares of their stock at the much lower, pre-bump price.

It's not really stock manipulation, though. If you're big enough, or respected enough, you have to expect your trades to move the market.

pemulis··on Half of China's millionaires want to leave country
Average housing prices in China tripled from 2005 to 2009.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_property_bubble

pemulis··on The Mundane Existence
If every shop clerk, Starbucks barista, bus driver, electrician or other professional realized that there must be a better way of working, what would happen?

The first three you listed are well on their way to being automated within a few decades. The last one seems out of place, since electricians are relatively well-paid and often self-employed. I think that we're seeing a gradual shift away from a service economy, mirroring earlier shifts from industrial and agricultural economies, as service jobs are automated or taken over by people in poorer countries. I'm not sure what to call the economy that's coming, though. A creative economy? A reputation economy? An economy where people work on the things they find interesting, and if other people find them interesting, too, they get paid. Many of the menial or boring jobs will be automated.

pemulis··on Algorithmic Trading is Not High Frequency Trading
Not really. HFT is a subset of algorithmic trading, where many small orders are placed to take advantage of intraday (or intraminute, or even intrasecond) shifts in the spread. A large strategic order executed through an algorithm is a different creature altogether.

The big problem when you place a huge buy or sell order is that it shifts the price in a direction you don't want it to go. For a large sell order, the price goes down, as the market becomes skittish about the security. For a large buy order, the price goes up, as the market becomes bullish and arbitrageurs quickly buy up securities to resell to you. So, many traders use algorithms to hide their trades. The purpose of these algorithms is to avoid volatility, so they shouldn't be dangerous to the market, as long as they're designed correctly.

(Although, to be fair, algorithms may automatically stop trading when the market becomes too volatile, which contributes to flash crashes by reducing liquidity.)

pemulis··on Are jobs obsolete?
If that sort of thing was effective, income inequality would have dropped over the past 60 years as government regulations raised the minimum wage and shortened the work week. Instead, it dramatically increased.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:United_States_Income_Distr...

pemulis··on Daniel Domscheit-Berg allegedly destroys 3000 stolen Wikileaks submissions
Edit: Deleted original story to replace with a better link. The Chaos Computer Club expelled Domscheit-Berg this week, partially for refusing to return the alleged submissions. A reporter from Der Spiegel tweeted that Domscheit-Berg confirmed that he had the only copy of the archive of WikiLeaks submissions from early 2010, and had destroyed the encryption keys.
pemulis··on The stock market hates HP's new strategy
Not to discount the idea that tech companies should be run by innovators, but Apple wouldn't be one of the biggest companies in the world if not for its ingenious vertical integration, which ensures that competitors are always a year or more behind. A few famous examples include the way they temporarily monopolized the supply of a crucial type of flash memory for iPods, and still control the entire supply of certain touchscreen sizes for tablets. They provide the up-front capital to build factories in China to produce these new technologies in exchange for exclusivity. And after the exclusive period is over, Apple pays a discounted price, which means that their competitors actually subsidize Apple's products. There are plenty of other examples of operational genius within Apple along the same lines. Without those genius business maneuvers, they would probably be a successful company, but certainly not the biggest company in the US. The key thing is that this innovation in business ops is in the service of grand technological vision. Ops without vision dooms a company in the long term.
pemulis··on The Elusive Big Idea
I notice it in my own life for sure. I read more now, but I read a lot fewer books, and I spend less time thinking about what I read: I tend to leap to the next shiny thing.

I know what you mean, and I have the same problem. I think that the big difference between the present and the past is that the monetary value of our attention has increased dramatically, and companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars just to get us to look at them. It takes a lot of discipline to keep yourself from looking at a trillion-dollar lightshow.

I just don't buy the premise of this article, which is that because of all of these distractions, people are no longer grappling with big ideas. To extend your grocery store metaphor, it's as if the author were to argue that because there are so many candy bars, vegetables no longer exist. He mentions Richard Dawkins and Stephen Jay Gould as examples of people who would be superstar public intellectuals in an earlier time period, but I think that they are now. This is pure conjecture on my part, but I think that the percentage of the population that knows who Richard Dawkins and Stephen Jay Gould are is higher than the percentage of the population that knew who Marshall McLuhan and John Maynard Keynes were when they were active. In fact, I would venture a guess that Marshall McLuhan and John Maynard Keynes are also more well-known now than they were in their day. It's a lot easier for big ideas to reach the general public through the Internet than through old media and local word-of-mouth. Most of these people will never penetrate beyond the surface level, but at least they're aware that these big discussions exist. For the people who want to go deeper, they still can, will, and are, even if it means taking dramatic measures to focus their attention.

pemulis··on The Elusive Big Idea
Social networking as conversation is a good analogy, and one that Gabler doesn't follow through on in this article. Yes, the vast majority of conversations are banal, and always have been. The only difference is that, because of social networking, we now have a lasting record of how mundane our conversations are. Most conversations are not three-hour monologues about the End of History (and thank God for that). That doesn't mean that the quality of discussion has declined, or that we are in a post-idea era. It just means that throwaway small talk is located on the same global platform as the big ideas.

A positive side effect is that the interesting conversations are now available to everyone. For example, most chatter in a Philadelphia bar in 2011 is of no interest to anyone except the people having the conversation, but chatter in a Philadelphia bar in 1776 would make a fascinating read. I sure wish we had a record of that. Take Twitter as an example, since Gabler singles it out for criticism. Most of the time, I don't care what Muhammad Everyman in Cairo is tweeting about, because the quality level is the same as that of ordinary conversation. But when a revolution breaks out, I can listen in on tens of thousands of conversations talking about what is happening on a street-by-street level. Conversation is mundane, except when it isn't.

As for the comment about the Internet following a sort of Gresham's Law, with trivial information pushing out the big ideas, I think it's off the mark. Nothing is getting pushed out because there is nothing to get pushed out of. More bytes of kitten photos does not mean less bytes of Nietzsche. The amount and availability of big ideas and trivial data are increasing concurrently. The issue is one of attention: You can seek out and pay attention to big ideas, or you can look at cats. Most people look at cats. But that's always been true.

pemulis··on Public market newcomers getting crushed in sell-off
I wouldn't discount the effect of the S&P downgrade on these stocks. The downgrade led investors to flee from risky assets to more secure assets. Counterintuitively, this is causing the price of short-term Treasuries to go up, since they are still viewed as relatively safe investments and constitute one of the largest and most liquid bond markets in the world. The S&P downgrade puts more pressure on the U.S. government to raise taxes and/or take austerity measures in the near future, and that partially accounts for the plummeting price in stocks today, with the riskiest stocks taking the biggest hit.
pemulis··on Airbnb Offers Unconditional Apology, And $50,000 Insurance Guarantee
The guarantee is probably handled by pure insurance companies, who have been dealing with fraud successfully since before the Code of Hammurabi.
pemulis··on Could You Modify It ‘To Stop Students From Becoming This Advanced?’
Actually, the granddaddy of libertarian economics, F.A. Hayek, spent his whole career arguing that people are irrational (which is to say, they do not all share the same preferences), and that attempts to shape the economy based on a presumption of the existence of rational utility are doomed. Most non-libertarian economic systems are based on the assumptions that,

1. There is such a thing as rational utility, and 2. Bureaucrats can figure out what it is.

pemulis··on The Campaign For Real Monopoly
I absolutely agree, and want to add one point: Rent immunity, which this author decries, is the only thing that keeps the game interesting after the first few times circling the board. Weak players can team up to tear down strong players, while strong players try to play weak players against one another. It's all socially and psychologically driven, and it's possible to engineer amazing comebacks.
pemulis··on Why Groupon Is Poised For Collapse
3. Most of the people redeeming Groupons will come at peak hours, so you still have excess capacity at slow hours. If Groupon Now (or something similar) catches on, that might solve the problem of excess capacity, but Groupon Classic does not.
pemulis··on First Bitcoin "Depression" Hits
You would have to offer a discount for paying with bitcoins for this to work. I know a lot of merchants (in real life, not online) that offer small discounts to people who use cash so that they don't have to pay credit card transaction fees.

In any case, if you accept online payments via credit card, there wouldn't be much point to converting them to bitcoins after the fact, unless you actually prefer to hold BTC instead of USD. You've already paid the transaction fees.

pemulis··on First Bitcoin "Depression" Hits
Basically, it's great for the black market. For the US, that means primarily drugs and gambling. That's why the price shot up after the Wired article about Silk Road: A whole bunch of people wanted to get Bitcoins to buy drugs online. In some countries the black market is even more important, because it's the only way to get certain necessities. The fact that bitcoins are being used as an investment vehicle right now is depressing, since the world desperately needs a form of digital cash.
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