philoinvestor

Building this web app for traders, at the moment. Joining the waitlist here will get you free trial access at launch.

The landing page explains what the software will do, but there are things that we cannot announce yet.

Simply speaking: The app helps the trader track his edge, build on it and extend it.

I released my piece Dump Your Crypto (the sequel) from the paywall. The first one nailed the top in the Crypto cycle in October 2021.

This one isn't going too bad either.

Use this as a blueprint for markets going forward

Using George Soros's work and theories in financial markets, and after studying him for 20 years, I designed two boom/bust cycles that I see operating in financial markets today.

One is the Techno-AI Boom/Bust Cycle, and the other is Biden's Imperial Cycle, or Techno-Imperial Cycle. *Imperial and Expansion may be used interchangeably.

Yes they overlap, greatly, but I had to segregate them to make them easier to understand.

Note: The content is not exhaustive.

Beautiful!

In the past 10 years, Microsoft quality of earnings has dropped as the company became more capital intensive.

As of 2023, it changed its accounting for capex from a useful life of 4 years to a useful life of 6 years.

I found this interesting. Microsoft added $3.7bln in EBIT last year from this accounting change. They now say their servers and network equipment have a useful life of six years.

Does that sound fair to you or excessive? Thanks.

Globalisation is good, as long as it works for the West. Globalisation is bad and should be prevented when globalisation doesn't work for the West.

I first invested in AAPL late 2013, but I wouldn't touch the stock here.

I expand on my thoughts in this piece: https://www.philoinvestor.com/p/downside-at-apple-a-10x-in-1...

They are increasingly relying on having full control of their ecosystem to maintain their "monopoly", and with all the risks brewing in the horizon - its price is pretty high.

People extrapolate the present too much into the future, but much of life does not work that way.

I wrote a few post on Apple's brewing problems, outlined within: https://www.philoinvestor.com/p/downside-at-apple-a-10x-in-1...

Truth is, I don't know. Each case is different, as in the case of Legacy Media Vs Netflix etc. It's not all linear right?

But the overall setup/theme has definitely catalysed many of these outcomes.

Absolutely. Many of them got used to lavish lifestyles and fat expenses, now they will all need to adjust fast.

When I said marginal, I meant the workers who are not really required and were just hired because of grand expansion plans that later on failed.

This is a massive theme. But for how long will big tech/social media be allowed to run a mok without much tighter compliance standards?

Who is going to hire all those millions of marginal workers now left without a job?

And those who get employed, how are they going to make near as half as much as what they made?

Amazon has bigger problems with China actively trying to attack its business model from all sides!

At first I didn't believe Apple actually tried to make its own car. What a stupid idea!

"Blockchain solves this..."

Sad how few people actually have a consistent "thinking on paper" discipline.

Tech cos went from forced hirers to forced firers, and this leaves tech workers in a bit of a hard place.

Hands down one of the most important things for high productivity and thinking.

I remember a line that said something like.

"I don't write on paper, I THINK on paper."

This piece went viral a few weeks ago:

https://www.philoinvestor.com/p/downside-at-nvidia-and-the-n...

I don't think what you say translates the way you think it does :)

"Romios" or "Romiosyni" (the act of being a Romios) is considered in many instances parallel to being Greek.

Remember that the Roman Empire dumped Latin and went with the Greek language.

Yep, there are similarities between the blockchain rush and the AI rush.

But in my last piece on AI, I said that AI is 50X Blockchain!

Apple is trying to tighten the noose on its ecosystem, but everyone is fighting back..Antitrust case in the US ramping up too.

Landmine ahead for Apple?

How many GPUs are being delivered today and for how long will they be used / what's their life?

Who is funding the purchase of those GPUs?

If VC money then what happens if the startups don't make money?

Are users using AI-apps because they are free and dump them soon?

Isn't their competition in semiconductors? Won't we have chips-as-a-commodity soon? LLMs-as-a-commodity?

Is Big Tech spending all this money to create VALUE or just to survive the next phase of the technological revolution? (e.g. the AI rush)

If prices are high, and sales are high, and competition is still low -- then how much is nvidia actually worth? And if we don't now why is it selling for so many times earnings?

https://www.philoinvestor.com/p/downside-at-nvidia-and-the-n...

With the way NVIDIA is moving and how it's seeding AI startups, you could be right about them actively trying to do this. But there is a reality beyond our ability to predict it..

You may be getting 100x value out of your 30 bucks.

Is that the only variable that one needs to consider to gauge if this is bubble territory?

I agree that it's opaque and that's why I said that AI can be the ULTIMATE bubble.

Can I paste links in replies here? I wrote an article about the AI bubble a few weeks ago.

I don't see how this "AI rush" isn't going to skew markets, skew the financials of big tech and create a bubble in the space.