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portmanteur

62 karma · joined February 26, 2020

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portmanteur··on Claude Fable 5.2 scores 65 on Artificial Analysis, highest so far
It’s my understanding this model has even fewer of those than the models with higher cost per successful task.

As a result, a simple “cost per task” metric makes the most sense to use for me, when paired with the eval scores.

portmanteur··on U.S. Obesity Rate Drops as Use of GLP-1 Weight Loss Drugs Surges
If the reason why the obesity rate matters is because obesity (defined as a BMI over 30 in men, 35 in women) is heavily correlated with all cause mortality, and a number of other maladies along the way. So, even if GLP-1’s lower obesty rates, I wonder if we all see similar improvements to these other maladies and all cause mortality, or if the weight loss is more of a cosmetic benefit.
portmanteur··on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's letter to staff about affair
This is all very distressing, but I say: Let he who has not built the linchpin company of the industry the entire global economy is levered to and not risked it all in an extramarital affair with a chi-com honeypot cast the first stone!
portmanteur··on The oldest ice disappears and the Stone Age emerges from it
>a non-insignificant portion of HN refuses to believe in climate change.

This strikes me as a Motte-and-Bailey style argument. I don’t think the issue is whether the climate is changing, but people who bang on about the climate changing are typically doing it in service of some policy outcome. If I don’t believe those policies will have their purported effect, or are feasible at the required scale, or if I think those policies with have far more disastrous consequences than maintaining the status quo (for example, mass de-industrialization in order to limit global carbon emissions, which after a series of waving hands, saves the planet or something). Does challenging those policy proposals mean that I refuse to believe in climate change? To a non-insignificant portion of climate commenters, the answer is probably “Yes.”

portmanteur··on The Mythical Man-Month in the Age of AI
Everyone always said “you can’t put nine women on one pregnancy and get a baby in just one month.” Heck, Elon Musk tried to do it, and wouldn’t you know it, ended up with nine kids!
portmanteur··on Shitter – A Nitter Fork
Is there a list of things or beliefs that make someone "Far right"? Is there a list or reason why being labeled "far right" (by others, not oneself) should be disqualifying, or worthy of having your services abused? Nitter and its forks are in violation of the X.com terms of service, which is why they are facing legal challenges. Those challenges may be easily routed around with other technology, but Nitter and its forks are still violating the services brazenly. Are "far right" people beneath the law? Is it okay to steal from someone on the "far right"? Is it okay to commit violence against someone on the "far right"?
portmanteur··on Meta ordered to pay $25B penalty in New Mexico Cambridge Analytica case
All of the accolades you bestowed upon visa-sponsored workers could be true. But the framing of indentured servitude comes from the visa sponsorship itself. These workers do not feel they have the right to free expression or to speak out against unethical business practices (not just data privacy but even 9/9/6 work schedules), for fear of losing their sponsorship. That’s why “indentured” is used: they’re contracted to a specific employer. They don’t have freedom of movement in the labor market. This also creates labor price arbitrage, which employers use to pay visa workers less than permanent residents and citizens. This labor arbitrage inevitably lowers the wages of non-sponsored workers.
portmanteur··on Tesla Roadster
As a father of a growing family, I am still waiting for the RoBovan.
portmanteur··on Leo's first encyclical attacks technological messianism
In which ways, specifically? Or, which ways would you like to promote a discussion about?
portmanteur··on Magnifica Humanitas
It is not a stretch. Tolkien was a devout Catholic. The story has a wide variety of allegorical symbolism pointing to a profound Catholic faith. The ring is a metaphor for sin. In famous scene of Boromir’s death, in telling Aragorn he succumbed to temptation by the ring he says, “I have failed.” To which Aragorn, the rightful King, recognizing Boromir’s atonement, replies, “No, brother, you have won a great victory.” This is a blow-for-blow metaphor of the Sacrament of Reconciliation, aka Confession.

Many writers have written on the vast number of Catholic themes and metaphors in LOTR, but one great example is Frodo’s Journey: https://www.amazon.com/Frodos-Journey-Discover-Hidden-Meanin...

Many of his arguments are summarized in this interview: https://youtu.be/HKqvCRc0wWU?si=CPY3SpvRsZ_ZK-Tw

portmanteur··on Big tech's anti-labor playbook has come for Wikipedia
“Filled with immigrants” will always be a subjective term. Does it need to be 100% immigrants to count as “filled”? 50%? 25%?

Canadian residents, for example, as of 2021 [1], were 23% foreign-born, and further 2.5% non-permanent residents. In the five year period from 2016 to 2021, the number of foreign-born Canadians increased by 18% alone, which to me is significant growth. The number of non-permanent residents doubled from 2016 to 2021, and tripled again by July 2024 [2]. The share of third-generation+ Canadians, defined as those born in Canada to parents born in Canada, was 56% in 2021 [1]. When the 2026 census data is released next year, it’s estimated that number could be as low as 52%.

[1] https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/as-sa/fo... [2] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-215-x/91-215-x2024001...

portmanteur··on Magnifica Humanitas
The Lord of the Rings is a fundamentally Catholic work, written in English, and one of the most popular works of literature of the past century. So it is not unusual for an English-speaking Pope to quote from it.

Further, what shade would be thrown, and why? What criticism of Palantir would the Pope be attempting to make here?

portmanteur··on Pope Leo XIV’s first encyclical Magnifica humanitas to be published May 25
It’s not about “celebrating death”. It’s about promoting a culture of assassinations and political violence. Robert Muller died of natural causes.
portmanteur··on The last six months in LLMs in five minutes
I would want to know the LLM has a reliable and realistic World Model underneath all of the next token prediction.

Whether I am building hardened engineering systems, or discussing cooking methods, or discussing sensitive health concerns, or navigating complex psychological and interpersonal issues, the model will inevitably have to make some assumptions about context I haven’t provided. I want to know that those assumptions are grounded in reality.

For what it’s worth, a slack-line over a river in front of a medieval town is too anachronistic to be interesting, let alone the idea of an old man riding a bicycle well enough over a slack-line. That is output that was not grounded in a solid world model, regardless of how “creative” it was.

portmanteur··on Show HN: Files.md – Open-source alternative to Obsidian
Given the explosion of open source released projects I've seen over the past six months, I believe developers are getting compensated by the tool they are building for themselves creating real value for them.

I have a problem, I spend a few days building a tool that solves the problem, it works pretty well for me, and I release it to let others get value from it. They make tweaks to it, perhaps improve it, and I get value from those enhancements and bugfixes.

portmanteur··on Cursor Camp
Kamala Harris bragged about enforcing this law against parents in California. That’s the only way that I know that it’s an actual law that gets enforced because I had never heard of laws like this before, and I grew up in US public schools in the South.
portmanteur··on Pope tells priests to use their brains, not AI, to write homilies
Not sure what this is implying, but aspiring priests are required to have a Bachelor’s degree before entering Seminary, or it tacks at least two years onto a very rigorous six-year seminary program. The seminary program is on par with getting a Master’s degree in Philosophy and Theology. Further, only 30-50% of seminarians ultimately become ordained as priests, due to the rigorous vetting program and “discerning out.”
portmanteur··on Show HN: A real time AI video agent with under 1 second of latency
Perhaps use a small, fast LLM to maintain a rolling "disposition" state, and for each of perhaps a handful of dispositions, have a handful of bridging emotes/gestures. You can have the small LLM use the next-to-last/second-most-recent user input to control the disposition async'ly, and in moments where it's not clear just say "That's a good question," "Let me think about that," or "I think that..." etc.
portmanteur··on Show HN: A real time AI video agent with under 1 second of latency
Have you considered giving your digital twin a jolly aspect? I've wondered if an AI video agent could be made to appear real time, despite a real processing latency, if the AI were to give a hearty laugh before all of its' responses. >So Carter, what did you do this weekend? >Hohoho, you know! I spent some time working on my pet AI projects!

I wonder if some standard set of personable mannerisms could be used to bridge the gap from 250ms to 1000ms. You don't need to think about what the user has said before you realize they've stopped talking. Make the AI Agent laugh or hum or just say "yes!" before beginning its' response.

portmanteur··on GPT-4 Update: 32K Context Window Now for All Users
A cutoff date of April 2023 means the AI also presumably has access to about a month's worth of blogs that have been written since GPT4 was released on March 14th. So perhaps a few "Best Practices" or "Prompt Engineering" guides might have made it into the training set.

Chat GPT can probably help users better optimize their conversations with it.

portmanteur··on The Great Train Robbery: Everything We Know So Far
This article is so bereft of specific details that it could easily pass as a dystopian science fiction short story. Fortunately, it’s just marketing PR for a global logistics company.
portmanteur··on Transcript of taped conversations among German nuclear physicists (1945)
Besides large scale immigration, what changed in America? Complacency during peacetime?
portmanteur··on Run Llama 2 uncensored locally
If you don't release a censored model for the casual observer to tinker with, you could end up with a model that says something embarrassing or problematic. Then the news media hype cycle would be all about how you're not a responsible AI company, etc. So releasing a censored AI model seems like it should mitigate those criticisms. Anyone technical enough to need an uncensored version will be technical enough to access the uncensored version.

Besides, censoring a model is probably also a useful industry skill which can be practiced and improved, and best methods published. Some of these censorship regimes appear to have gone to far, at least in some folks' minds, so clearly there's a wrong way to do it, too. By practicing the censorship we can probably arrive at a spot almost everyone is comfortable with.

portmanteur··on Cities with their own psychological disorders
I can think of a few examples over the past 3-8 years where this would be a useful syndrome to have named and in the popular memory.

Oh well, Stockholm Syndrome is catchier.

portmanteur··on No one wants to talk to your chatbot
Who chooses to stop at McDonald's instead of a fancy restaurant, just to save $5?
portmanteur··on Full Text of the Federalist Papers
Weren't they describing a Senate that was appointed by state legislators? They weren't describing what a government with Direct Election of Senators would look like.

Or, if that's not what you're talking about, why not just quote a relevant portion of the FP instead of being so deliberately cryptic?

portmanteur··on BuzzFeed News is shutting down
Buzzfeed News _was_ tabloid journalism. They published demonstrably fake news, most notably the infamous Steele Dossier. Buzzfeed News claimed the document was "unverified," when in reality it was verifiably false. Every other major media outlet had access to this document and refused to publish it because its claims were unsubstantiated. But not Buzzfeed News -- skepticism of this outlet's seriousness was completely warranted.
portmanteur··on Avoidance Speech
My brother's rule for his kids regarding swearing and other NSFW words is: "You'll probably hear adults use these words from time to time, but you can't repeat these words until you start paying taxes."
portmanteur··on Life expectancy in the U.S. varies greatly by region
These sorts of charts are meaningless without being broken down by race.

I did a quick search for "US Mortality Rate by Race" and I found CDC documents showing that African Americans have roughly 35% higher age-adjusted mortality than non-Hispanic Whites [0], and have on average 7 year shorter life expectancy at birth [1].

When people show maps where the American South has seemingly worse outcomes than the rest of the country, it's important to remember that the demographic makeup is totally different.

[0]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db456.pdf page 2 [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr71/nvsr71-01.pdf page 2

portmanteur··on DOJ plans to strike against encryption while the Techlash iron is hot
Is this news or is this a blog post? I understand it's very informed, and I don't necessarily mind opinionated journalism, but this seems to be speculating as to the motives of the FBI.

To me, this seems like only one very passionate side of an important debate. A big question I have is, "how likely is this legislation to actually become law?" UK and Australia passed similar laws, sure, but they also banned guns and that's not gonna happen here.