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princeb

1,006 karma · joined January 5, 2013

algorithmic trade execution

applied math.

uchicago '12

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princeb··on How fateful?
i guess the next question is of those 33 recorded instances (or 41.25 possible instances), how many people were around the two of them? if they were literally standing within arms reach of each other, but also within arms reach of a dozen other people, it may not be that interesting if they never connected. but if they were within 5 meters of each other, and there weren't anyone else within a 100 meters of the two of them, that would have been a pretty awful missed connection.
princeb··on What the Queen's English revealed about a changing world
in typical north american english, in #1 #2 and #4 the t's are pronounced /d/ and the final syllable shortened (budd'n, godd'n, ead'n) and in #3 they are omitted but not glottalized (moun'n). in #5, the final t is simply not aspirated, but rarely glottalized.
princeb··on Electric vehicles are way more energy-efficient than internal combustion
> cost of ownership

some of the cars that i've seen have EV equivalents that are so significantly more costly that the gas savings only start to work out at around 1.25-2x the average driving distance of a personal vehicle owner. it makes no sense for example for me to replace my glc300 with a eqc. and if you don't drive at least 10k miles/yr, the kona electric is more expensive than the kona ice.

a lot of discussions revolve around downgrading from an expensive ice to a cheap ev to make the cost work but that seems a bit disingenuous. of course getting a cheaper car is cheaper. when we do like-for-like, a lot of the advantages disappear.

princeb··on Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries
> 80% battery that’s 128 miles of range

i know i am not an average user but that's like a month of driving for me.

princeb··on Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries
America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests
princeb··on Why we ignore thousands of daily car crashes
we don't need to rely on the numbers coming from the CCP to get an estimate of how bad it is in china. what we can do is to rely on the covid count of passengers coming in from China, reported by non-Chinese disease authorities. we have several: south korea, singapore, and taiwan who were taking in chinese travelers at various points of the pandemic. china is a minor contributor to imported cases in these three countries.
princeb··on Only 6.8% of adults have optimal cardiometabolic health
it's the other way around for me. out in the suburbs a grocery run was around an hour, driving to the mall, navigating the ridiculously large hypermarket, packing the boot, driving back.

right now i live a block down from a grocery store and a grocery run is 15 minutes tops.

because grocery shopping was such a hassle in the suburbs we did it once a week and tried to buy as much as possible to avoid going back. in the city i just grab whatever is on my list walking home from the train station.

princeb··on “Atari Was Very, Very Hard” – Nolan Bushnell on Atari, 50 Years Later
gta's sandbox is the most "famous" part of the game to non-gamers, but the series since the beginning when it was a top down shooter has always been story driven, now more than before. if you want the sandbox experience, it is in GTA:O, not the single player mode.
princeb··on “Atari Was Very, Very Hard” – Nolan Bushnell on Atari, 50 Years Later
> Have you never picked up and played a game part-way through with a friend?

never games that i'm not familiar with. it seems downright unfair to the person who is half-way through it.

i have seen my friends who've mostly played J-RPGs try to jump into a coop Gears of War at a party and it wasn't good at all, in fact, it was extremely embarrassing.

princeb··on “Atari Was Very, Very Hard” – Nolan Bushnell on Atari, 50 Years Later
w.r.t the "good part", there is a difference between games as toys and games as a story.

a lot of games today are "story games", even if there isn't a fixed story, there is some progression and different parts of the game open up at different times and result in different emergent gameplay. even something sandbox, toy-like like cities skyline and minecraft has a progression.

i am reminded of gta V, which i thought had a really good story, where the game jumps you into a bank heist in the first scene of the game, it was a huge scenario with lots of set pieces, a lot of mechanics are introduced right away, it's pretty intense, and thwarts the RPG baby-crab-killing trope, thank goodness.

games as toys, like pong i guess, where you begin the game immediately having access to every single feature of the game, still exist - apex legends, cs go, rocket league. but you still won't be able to jump into it at a decent competitive level right away. in most popular competitive FPS games, you will be rocked for a good first 20-50 hours of gameplay until you build understanding.

w.r.t to what nolan means when he has to go through an hour of things before he can start playing the real game, sadly that's a historical era. games today have so much more features, so much more complications, a mix of meta thinking, hand-eye coordination, and mechanical practice that it's hard to simply jump into a game and be comfortable right away. a lot of games today need some amount of practice, whether 10 minutes, 10 hours or 10 months.

princeb··on Price shocks in formative years scar consumption for life
i certainly wouldn't want to be living in prewar houses with prewar safety and prewar appliances with prewar electricity efficiency and driving prewar cars and receiving prewar medical attention. but i guess to many people, that seems like an upgrade, because they are far too poor to afford modern living. life has gotten worse for a lot of people.
princeb··on Esports stars have shorter careers than NFL players
there are a lot of "sports" out there that are variations of some common core mode. aussie rules is the largest and most lucrative sport belonging to the football family of sports that is only ever watched in australia. there's also union, league, gridiron, gaelic and subvariants of those. we don't need to unify all these rules just to appeal to a larger audience. i think we can all enjoy the different games in different contexts.
princeb··on Elon has decided not to join our board
maybe his lawyers informed him he made a mistake. he filed the disclosure on Schedule 13G which prevents him from joining the board, rather than 13D if he wants to do so.

but then again, i wouldn't put it past elon to do all the things that the SEC explicitly tells people not to do.

princeb··on What happens when the public lose confidence in academic findings?
it's not consistently referred to as "IQ" or intellligence, typically the measurement is called "g" or "g factor" or "general mental ability" and over the last couple of decades the meta-analyses just keeps pointing towards g being the single best predictor of performance.
princeb··on What happens when the public lose confidence in academic findings?
the standard reference for this is ree and earles 1992.

every other method of selection, e.g. structured interviews, work samples, etc, are (noisier) proxies of general mental ability.

princeb··on Ask HN: I realise data science is not for me and feel depressed
i spent some time in "data science", back when it was just called "research", in a corporate environment.

95% of your value as a "data scientist" is figuring out how to squeeze diamonds from tons and tons of steaming piles of sh*t, and that kind of work is basically just filtering, collating, collecting, organizing from disparate data sets with different fields, data types, formats, some of them with varying degrees of accuracy. it's not fun, but very few other people are doing it, and the result is valuable to a lot of people, so it pays well.

princeb··on Ericsson workers were kidnapped when telco sent them to negotiate with ISIS
it's a company like ericsson. if this person didn't have too much an idea of the world i can imagine he'd just think negotiating with what the US calls "terrorists" is just BAU in this part of the world.

i mean, i can imagine large swathes of human habitation where society is organized around deadly force. literally one country exists right at the border, where cartels manage the economy.

princeb··on Bacteria upcycle carbon waste into valuable chemicals
they're referring to lactobacillus which produces some of the flavors in bread, beer, wine, yogurt, miso, kimchi from sugars, such as lactose.
princeb··on Show HN: Test your shape rotation skills
did a similar assessment when i was conscripted into the singapore armed forces - guessing it was a way to filter people into the air force pilot program.
princeb··on What's the most efficient language?
the writing of cantonese is a complicated affair.

the only analogy i can cook up is that - imagine if formally, everyone wrote English in German, but when you speak you speak English, and when you read English you'd see German words and sentence structures but you will preprocess it into English before understanding it. and with different levels of formality, would You with underschiedenly Germandegrees speak English. but in no case would you speak German.

princeb··on You can build a skyscraper anywhere in Davis, California
i too lived a 10 minute walk away from shoreditch while i was working in the City of London. Every other Friday night are partying and shouting and youths on scooters blasting eurodance on speakers and Saturday mornings are the smell of old beer and vomit. It's not shoreditch if it's not. I too would often partake in the merrymaking with my mates after work until the wee hours. Now that i am older that scene is still not mine to deprive others of.
princeb··on You can build a skyscraper anywhere in Davis, California
> any problems the kids caused were way overshadowed by the vibrancy of the neighborhood.

All that you mentioned looks like features to me, not bugs.

princeb··on How do you fix a stroad?
> Nope. I live in a country with high quality transit and the first thing people buy when they can afford it is a car.

I, too, live in a country with high quality transit and also got a car when i had a family and i could afford a car.

i have about 1400 km per year on it. having a car and driving it are two different things.

princeb··on Excel-Virtual-Machine: C Compiler which targets Excel
vba is fine but it seems to exist halfway outside the calculation chain space that sheets and cells operate in. excel can work with it, but one has to be quite careful with function returns and parameters.

offsets and indirects also exist in that twilight zone being volatile functions.

these three combined can bring down a reasonably sized spreadsheet.

princeb··on I test in prod
there's no way to write regulations without some user production testing in aviation.

the more "failed tests" in production, the safer aviation becomes.

we give thanks to those who have fallen (literally, out of the sky).

princeb··on DeFi bug accidentally gives $90M to users
a couple thousand dollars here and there might be fungible, but at some scale it's not true that money today is money tomorrow. there generally needs to exist some method of transforming money today into money tomorrow, through various mechanisms that are broadly called "carry", and there also exists the possibility that these mechanisms become momentarily unavailable.

additionally, the lenders to revlon took on both an expectation on money in the future and a non-zero default probability. maybe you can say it is fine for money in the future to be money in the present, making the layman assumption that the carry mechanism exists every single day from the date of accidental payment to the date of actual payment, but the lenders cannot also give up the non-zero default probability. that's their obligation in return for full future payment. but since payment and the obligation are inseparable, i personally see no difference between early payment with no obligation and shylock's taking of a pound of flesh and all the blood along with it.

princeb··on DeFi bug accidentally gives $90M to users
hmm i don't know. generally speaking, money today is not the same as money tomorrow. and so,

if you think about money as a commodity, to be consumed, transformed, redeployed, similar to let's say... corn. what would you do, as a grain processor, if your supplier decided to show up with 500k bushels six months too early?

princeb··on As a solo developer, I decided to offer phone support (2017)
the US is a low personal trust, high systems trust society. there are plenty of facilities to accommodate personal failures, in the case of defaults, insolvencies, missed payment, breached contracts there is a highly developed legal system to accommodate arms-length remediation and for smaller issues, claims courts and arbitration. in finance industry, in the wholesale industry, there are self governing organizations to manage clearing, settlements, margining, penalties and incentives to perform regular and continuous contractual obligations, etc various checks and measures to avoid failures but also stopgaps to remediate failures when they happen.

we don't need personal trust because there is systems trust.

japan is a high personal trust system that obviates the need for high systems trust. insolvency proceedings in japan for example rely on private proceedings, social and familial relationships, instead of formal remediation. without the need for high systems trust, there is a virtually non-existent (high-yield) credit market, because companies don't "fail" in japan in the way we traditionally think of credit failures, and the outcomes of a credit event is non-standard and very difficult to predict. furthermore, if you are an outsider to the personal trust system, it is very difficult to fully participate in society.

princeb··on The death of the ‘Millionaire Next Door’ dream
why can't these millenials just eat like... 70 less avocado toasts a day.
princeb··on The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance (2020)
Yes sorry I shouldn’t be conflating two different concepts. Wbt >35 is the fatal temperature. Wbgt black (>31-32 depending on source) is where physical activity is dangerous.
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