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pushrax

731 karma · joined March 3, 2013

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pushrax··on SSD makers start warning that mining products like ChiaCoin will void warranty
There’s definitely some reasons for real value in defi but cheap loans is not one of them. With millions in collateral you can get ~1% APR from several places right now. That’s way lower than any crypto loan I know of. One way is to sign up for an IBKR account from several countries, and wire them assets, completely without human interaction.
pushrax··on Stock Market Returns Are Anything but Average
The problem is that there's not a clearly viable alternative. Even if we're in a period where the market is going to underperform (likely), will it still underperform cash? Bond yields are so low that they're a questionable inflation hedge as well.
pushrax··on Show your costs to boost sales
Or ideally keep 21.4% and include the 95% CI. There’s nothing misleading about the extra precision when the CI is included.
pushrax··on Google have declared Droidscript is malware
Seems like an extremely minor gripe (as you mention, it’s all just bullshit) to be the top comment.

Though FWIW I’m unable to disagree.

pushrax··on We were promised Strong AI, but instead we got metadata analysis
And in this case, the equilibrium is some amount of AI-bait fluff. There's a limit, beyond which continuing to add more fluff does not produce higher results.
pushrax··on Has UML died without anyone noticing?
A spreadsheet is a low code app. Less flexible than a general purpose programming language, but still extremely valuable.

If low code apps simply provide more flexibility and maintainability than a spreadsheet, they’re already winning.

pushrax··on Coinbase from YC to DPO
Okay, so I suppose the stability fee is paid in MKR, and Dai's stability ultimately is regulated by people who buy MKR, and because MKR is burned by the CDP, people who buy MKR receive the "interest" indirectly due to deflation of MKR? Though MKR is independently traded and seems to move far more from trading than deflation.
pushrax··on Kelly Criterion
I think it’s more a difference in what people think the term “Kelly criterion” means, which is somewhat fair. The concept of optimizing for geometric mean came before Kelly, as well as the math showing that optimizing for log utility is a way to do that.
pushrax··on Kelly Criterion
There are kind of two main points by Kelly:

1. Investment returns are multiplicative and should be looked at as a geometric series. To optimize the portfolio, optimize for geometric mean not arithmetic mean.

2. To optimize the geometric mean of some specific games, apply some specific mathematical rules that Kelly derived.

Then 2nd part is not applicable to general market investing. The 1st part is.

pushrax··on Coinbase from YC to DPO
I read a bit online after this, and saw various recommendations for people with CDPs to keep more like 300% collateral.

If it dips below 150% the contract is automatically liquidated. Should give ample time for the creditor to get their money back.

pushrax··on Coinbase from YC to DPO
I'm new to this. Is the collateral locked into the contract and unspendable until the contract is closed?

It's also kind of unclear what the interest is from that page. edit: apparently it's 8.5% https://mkr.tools/governance/stabilityfee

pushrax··on List of Proposed Etymologies of OK
Huh, maybe I am too young and used to the recent style! Thanks for the information.
pushrax··on List of Proposed Etymologies of OK
Maybe the point was that a lot of proposed etymological theories are inaccurate? (which also seems wrong but at least slightly defensible)
pushrax··on Expanded testing of video conferencing bandwidth usage over 50/5 Mbps broadband
With a gigabit uplink, in my experience video quality is noticeably better on several popular services.
pushrax··on Expanded testing of video conferencing bandwidth usage over 50/5 Mbps broadband
They're looking at how popular video conferencing services perform on a 50/5 client connection, with up 10 users sharing the connection.
pushrax··on Redefining what a map can be with new information and AI
Depends on how much impact is actually reduced by that minute. It's going to be cool to see the comparisons in the app.
pushrax··on Testing a few new designs that don't show the public dislike count
Surprisingly, that would be the tipping point that would get me to pay. Dislike ratio is very useful to avoid wasting time.
pushrax··on Benzene detected in hand sanitizers
Though 96% ethanol via cheap distillation is fine for hand sanitizer, so the only real explanation is they're leveraging existing supply chains (as described) or have made a mistake.
pushrax··on The political case for a blanket cryptocurrency ban
Gold mining is also environmentally intensive, as is transporting gold for trade.

Proof of stake is also a "mining" operation insofar as it produces a limited supply at a macro-predictable rate.

pushrax··on Lawyers used sheepskin as anti-fraud device for hundreds of years
You could split wood more than 2 ways, then register one of the pieces. Or a system of splitting multiple pieces of wood, leaving some for registration. No idea if this is what anyone has done.

Signing makes sense.

pushrax··on Abundant Capital
I think your evaluation is right and sensible. If you wanted, you can also take on risky bets with more diversification.

Joining a company that's relatively close to IPO is an interesting middle area.

pushrax··on Firefox replaces Google Analytics with fake no-op in strict tracking protection
If you load jQuery as part of your first party bundle, sure. But if you load it from a 3rd party CDN, you can assume it will independently fail at some point. If you’re making something important, the proper resiliency practise would be to gracefully handle it.

Obviously if jQuery is critical to your site working at all there’s not much you can do, but for any dependencies that are not critical or only critical to a small portion of features, it’s a much better UX to degrade only those features.

pushrax··on Abundant Capital
You're still getting paid a salary and can save that to diversify. Selling equity along the way isn't possible for everyone, but for example my employer IPO'd after 3 years and I've been liquidating at a schedule since then. I also got options ~300 employees, which is late in the startup game but early enough considering the company's success. That's a bit safer than super early stage.

Yes, some blind luck is needed to win at this game. However, the job market has been such that a solid programmer can get something lined up pretty quickly if their current job fails. I don't think the risk is as bad as people portray. Again, picture buying long term call options for a single stock with a proportion of income each year. Somewhat risky, but risk is capped and the payoff could be quite big. More diversification is almost definitely more efficient but carries less tail upside.

By "unfairness" I don't mean risk, I just mean unfairness.

pushrax··on Abundant Capital
Preferred stock by default mainly affects liquidation order when there's no dividend. If the company does very well, that won't be a factor. https://www.svb.com/blogs/lewis-hower/startup-founders-shoul...

Dilution can happen regardless of any preferred stock agreement. The biggest sources are when top leadership exercise huge options packages or when the company issues new stock for sale. If you buy stock or call options you are subject to dilution on the public market too. Under dilution, any investors that negotiated an anti-dilution clause on their preferred stock are the winners, everyone else loses. It's stacked but it doesn't break the game completely.

There's a pretty good chance of failure of this strategy. I've stuck around my company for almost 10 years to hit my FI target, and the first 2 years I didn't get equity by default as an intern. The opportunity cost is potentially huge. However, as an individual there's no way I would have been able to invest at this company at the time I got options. The job has been pretty nice in the mean time. FAANG also would have returned extremely well in that time, but more like 10x not 100x.

Is this an efficient strategy on the risk-reward frontier? I don't know. But sometimes the outcome works out very well. Unfairness in the system is there but not so different than owning any random stock. Fiduciary duty exists.

pushrax··on Abundant Capital
> employees get paid last, and therefore get paid less

Paid by who and in what case? If the company IPOs or buys back a sizeable chunk of stock as part of fundraising or acquisition, employees with options do just fine. Employees are paid when they choose to sell.

If the company liquidates that's obviously a bad deal for employees, but it's a bad deal for everyone involved.

In some sense, working for a tech startup is like working for FAANG and spending part of your salary on buying 10 year call options on random other private tech companies (if that were possible without having VC-tier wealth). Lost sleep is a founder issue.

pushrax··on OpenBSD boots multi-user on Apple M1 hardware
Very nice. An advantage of paravirtualization is that compositing across the guest and host will work, unlike passthrough. Any rough indication of the level of performance?
pushrax··on YouTube blocked chess channel after mistaken detection of racial slurs
I’ve also had people spam “approvals” on some projects I maintain to pad their stats. Incredibly annoying to get 100+ notifications for that. I reported one particularly bad offender to GH and they were banned for a day, at least. Their profile readme still brags about how active they are.
pushrax··on OpenBSD boots multi-user on Apple M1 hardware
Apple also tends to prefer pushing their users to their closed software ecosystem. Given the likely low demand for passthrough on these devices, I kind of doubt they'll implement it in the foreseeable future.
pushrax··on OpenBSD boots multi-user on Apple M1 hardware
I'm don't think you can do GPU or PCI passthrough on macOS. Not sure if/when Apple would consider adding that.

I'm glad the things I want to do on Linux are all terminal based. I used a tiling WM for years on Arch and don't miss it much with all the macOS WM extensions available now (Magnet, Rectangle, Moom, Hammerspoon, etc). Less themeable but perfectly functional.

pushrax··on Coinbase valued above $100B, ahead of direct listing
"Coinbase generated $141 million of net income on $691 million in revenue for the first nine months of 2020, according to documents shared with investors."

Though 2021 will be higher, will it be 20x higher?

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