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quantumwannabe

1,033 karma · joined April 13, 2015

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quantumwannabe··on Paris mayor plans to triple SUV parking tariffs to cut air pollution
Be careful what you wish for.

Under a fair weight tax scheme, a passenger of a fully loaded bus would pay more than a solo driver of a Hummer EV (one of the heaviest SUVs on the market).

Some data on bus weights [1]:

      Transit Bus Type           Passengers         Curb Weight (lb)   Fully‐Loaded Weight (lb)
                            Max Seated Max Total 
  2‐axle 35‐foot               27 – 40   46 – 72     15,450 – 28,510       23,360 – 39,020
  2‐axle 40‐foot               35 – 44   61 – 92     20,520 – 32,520       30,600 – 44,100
  2‐axle 45‐foot               44 – 46   80 – 86     30,130 – 30,450       41,480 – 42,530
  3‐axle 45‐foot Double‐deck   79 – 82   116 – 122   36,560 – 37,930       54,670 – 55,850
  3‐axle 60‐foot Articulated   41 – 61   89 – 123    37,920 – 49,520       55,975 – 64,690
The Hummer EV's curb weight is 9063 lbs (add 150 lbs for an average driver) and it has two axles for a loaded axle weight of 4607 lbs.

A three axle articulated bus with 123 passengers has a loaded axle weight of 21,563 lbs using the data from the table above.

This means that the bus has ~4.7 times the load per axle as the SUV, so per the fourth power law, it does 488 times as much damage to the road as the SUV. Since it carries 123 people, that means that each bus passenger is doing ~4 times as much damage to the road as the SUV driver.

[1] https://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/tcrp/docs/TCRPJ-11Task... (Table 7/Page 25)

quantumwannabe··on Inflation-adjusted iPhone 15 most affordable base model since 2007 original
The current "iPhone" is a low-cost parts bin model that was first introduced as the iPhone 5C. The current iPhone should be compared to phones in that family (5C, XR, SE, 8, and 11-15), not to the actual iPhone family (Original, 3G, 3GS, 4, 4S, 5, 5S, 6, 6S, 7, X, XS, and 11-15 Pro).
quantumwannabe··on College students are struggling with basic math
You're clearly not very well traveled if you think that the east coast is a bastion of intellectualism while the rest of the country is innumerate.

The struggling student interviewed in the article lives on the east coast!

quantumwannabe··on Are self-driving cars already safer than human drivers?
They drive more conservatively than the most conservative human driver, mainly because they don’t try at all to cooperate with other vehicles. It’s clearly due to technical reasons, not because they’re being more safe.

For example, if they need to make a lane change for a turn on a congested street, they will wait for someone to let them in rather than “pushing” their way in like a human driver (especially a bus driver) would. When that inevitably doesn’t happen, they are forced to go around the block and try again.

That exact behavior happened during the “Uber” ride I took on a Waymo, and it is possible they have improved since then.

quantumwannabe··on Abandoned and little-known airfields
Today it's a lagoon and a field so it's even more of a waste of space.
quantumwannabe··on How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?
The hilarious thing is that when TSMC was founded they had to train EVERYONE. Taiwan had zero chip fabrication talent. All of the specialists at the time, even the founder of TSMC, were in the US. For them to complain that it's impossible to train a workforce is laughable and is most likely just racism/nationalism.
quantumwannabe··on Tell HN: Airbnb’s transparent pricing is a lie
In the description, they say they charge extra fees:

*******

▶ Mandatory fees

You’ll be asked to pay the following charges at check-in or check-out:

• A damage deposit of $350 will be collected by credit card. You should be reimbursed within 7 days of check-out. Your deposit will be refunded in full by credit card, subject to an inspection of the property.

• A resort fee of $40.16 per night

• There will be taxes and fees that need to be paid at the front desk

▶ Optional Extra

• This property allows pets however there is a $350 pet deposit per stay. 50 USD is kept for a deep cleaning fee, and the remainder is refunded if there is no pet damage.

• Parking $78 for 24 hrs and $93 for oversized. no in and out

quantumwannabe··on Flash Museum
Flashpoint [1] is a similar program that lets you download and play practically every flash game.

[1] https://flashpointarchive.org/

quantumwannabe··on Elon Musk doesn't understand geometry
You're making the same mistake as the author. What matters is how many people a lane can move in a given amount of time, not how large each burst of people is.

We stop at 20 cars in 10 minutes because that's the equivalent of the bus. If the bus ran twice as often (i.e. 5 minute headways), we'd have 40 cars in 10 minutes, but that's only one car every 15 seconds which is far from a congested state, especially with no traffic signals (like a rail/guideway based PRT or a hypothetical future self-driving system where cars coordinate with each other).

PRT is essentially just a bus system with a large number of small buses and a large number of routes as opposed to a traditional bus system with a small number of large buses and a small number of routes.

quantumwannabe··on Elon Musk doesn't understand geometry
The bus and the 20 AVs have the same throughput (40 passengers in 10 minutes). While the AVs take up more physical space than the bus, they require the same amount of road space to transport the same number of passengers in the same amount of time.

You have to have extremely short bus headways before the road space efficiency tilts back towards its favor.

quantumwannabe··on Elon Musk doesn't understand geometry
The author forgot about time. 20 small self-driving vehicles that come every 30 seconds uses no more road space than a 40-person bus that comes every 10 minutes.

Musk's self-driving taxi idea also isn't new. It's essentially the same thing as Personal Rapid Transit [1] which was originally envisioned back in the 1950s as a way to solve real world public transit system issues:

>Most mass transit systems move people in groups over scheduled routes. This has inherent inefficiencies. For passengers, time is wasted by waiting for the next vehicle to arrive, indirect routes to their destination, stopping for passengers with other destinations, and often confusing or inconsistent schedules. Slowing and accelerating large weights can undermine public transport's benefit to the environment while slowing other traffic.

>Personal rapid transit systems attempt to eliminate these wastes by moving small groups nonstop in automated vehicles on fixed tracks. Passengers can ideally board a pod immediately upon arriving at a station, and can – with a sufficiently extensive network of tracks – take relatively direct routes to their destination without stops

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_rapid_transit

quantumwannabe··on It's companies' fault we don't want to return to the office
Also, it’s not like demand for retail businesses has declined. Businesses near where people live are booming.
quantumwannabe··on Bad Manors: The McMansion as Harbinger
Remember that a 4000 sq ft house without a basement (common in the South) has around the same interior square footage as a 2000 sq ft house with a basement (common in the North). The Southerner's house looks a lot larger from the street, but it's actually around the same size inside as the "modest" house and is therefore not a "mansion".

Most of the "McMansion" photos I've seen criticized on architecture blogs are either middle-class houses from areas where basements are uncommon or cherry-picked examples of unusually bad design (many of which are actually custom builds!).

quantumwannabe··on One of the world’s largest investment banks: ‘Greedflation’ has gone too far
What are you talking about? There are plenty of €100+ per person fine dining restaurants in Milan while the average sit down restaurant in the US charges around $20-30 per person. Whatever restaurant you went to wasn’t fine dining or you are used to prices in a very expensive (and outlier) part of the US.
quantumwannabe··on When did New York start building slowly?
The only things on your list that you can't get in every other city with more than a couple hundred thousand people is specific museums, seeing Broadway shows immediately upon release, and ultra-high end restaurants.

I wouldn't brag about NYC's beaches and skiing.

I’m not hating on the city, just pointing out that New Yorkers often believe that only NYC has stuff and every other city is a barren wasteland.

quantumwannabe··on Cyclists now outnumber motorists in City of London
What? Most countries support an International Driving Permit [1] which allows you to drive there on a tourist visa if you're licensed to drive in your home country.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Driving_Permit

quantumwannabe··on Dropping the SAT requirement is a luxury belief
The best option would be for them to identify as mixed race.
quantumwannabe··on Chicago sold rights to 36k parking meters for $1.2B that generate $200M per year
That's because Texas diverts a large percentage of the gas tax to the school system.
quantumwannabe··on People Hate the Idea of Car-Free Cities–Until They Live in One
Your numbers are an order of magnitude off. No suburban (not rural) American has to drive more than a mile or two to a grocery store, and if they commute by car, there are likely several on their route. They also can drive to far more stores in ten minutes than you can walk to, including time spent parking (which is negligible).

Most people buy used cars, and spending more on luxuries isn’t related to the necessary cost of transportation. You’re doing the equivalent of using the price of first-class train tickets to argue that rail is expensive. Your insurance numbers are also very high, and a safe driver driving an average car would be paying half as much.

The median commute is ~20 minutes, which is way less than 20 miles due to speed limits and traffic. An F-150 is also not a common commuter vehicle, and pickups are a minority even in truck heavy areas like Texas.

Your original comment about price savings being minimal is also wrong; the savings on a single item at Costco is often more than $5 compared to a downtown store.

quantumwannabe··on TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia
No, China has not been a country for longer than European civilization. That CCP propaganda claim is the equivalent of saying that the European Union has been around for 8000 years because Plovdiv, Bulgaria was founded in the 6th Millennium BC.
quantumwannabe··on TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia
Your post has an enormous aroma of patriotism. Where were you when Taiwan was subsidizing TSMC? They were only able to outcompete Western fabs due to the enormous amount of government help they got in the early days. Those Taiwanese leaders sure were stupid to have invested in chip manufacturing.
quantumwannabe··on Can Tokyo’s charms be replicated elsewhere?
You should read the replies to that tweet:

https://twitter.com/keccers/status/1596324554095595521

https://twitter.com/robinkunde/status/1596325433653559298

It is very common for American schools to have student art shows.

I don't know where you get your perception of the US from, but it sure isn't reality. Your other two "observations" are similarly divorced from the real world.

quantumwannabe··on The good delusion: has effective altruism broken bad?
The founders of the Effective Altruism movement are mostly non-technical people. You can't blame their arrogance and failures on the "techbros".

The people mentioned on the Effective Altruism Wikipedia page:

Peter Singer: Professor of Bioethics (philosopher)

Toby Ord: Philosopher. Philosophy PhD, Computer Science bachelors

Hilary Greaves: Philosopher, and he double-majored in physics in undergrad

William MacAskill: Philosopher/Ethicist. PhD in philosophy.

Eliezer Yudkowsky: self-described autodidact, no formal education or notable work history. Runs a "AI" "Research" center called MIRI.

Holden Karnofsky: Co-Founder of GiveWell, Harvard degree in Social Studies

Yew-Kwang Ng: Welfare Economist, has published biology, mathematics, philosophy, cosmology, psychology, and sociology papers.

Derek Parfit: Philosopher. Has a history degree.

Nick Bostrom: Philosopher. BA in philosophy and math, MA in philosophy and physics.

Benjamin Todd: Physics/Philosophy double major, worked at Kodak for eight months and at an investment firm for 1.25 years before joining the Centre for Effective Altruism.

The financial backers are more diverse:

Dustin Moskovitz: Co-Founder of Facebook, Co-Founder of Open Philanthropy

Cari Tuna: Dustin's wife, previously worked as a reporter before cofounding Open Philanthropy

Dan Smith: Professional poker player

Liv Boeree: Professional poker player. Physics degree

Sam Bankman-Fried: con-artist, thief, fraudster. Has a physics degree and a minor in math, interned/worked as a trader at Jane Street, and founded Alameda Capital and FTX.

quantumwannabe··on Get your money off crypto.com immediately
Monero is the only cryptocurrency I’ve seen that tries to actually be a currency instead of an investment vehicle. Unfortunately, it’s still too volatile to keep any money in.
quantumwannabe··on Sam Bankman-Fried Has a Savior Complex
My favorite quote from the article: “FTX did need money, after all. And it needed that money from credible sources so it could continue to distinguish itself from the bottom-feeders who came to crypto to fleece the suckers.”
quantumwannabe··on Sam Bankman-Fried Has a Savior Complex
Another archive: https://archive.ph/Yg64e
quantumwannabe··on Binance to acquire FTX
I wonder if SBF became one of the largest political donors in the country, not for altruistic reasons like he claims, but for protection from the SEC.
quantumwannabe··on How the US can stop wasting billions of dollars on each transit project
It doesn’t matter how much you like light rail or how little you care about the estimates being wrong, the project was significantly over budget, delayed several years, and was reduced in scope from what was originally promised to the voters. These are objective facts.

The Ulink extension was part of the original proposal, so it should be counted against the original budget and timeline as well. The U-district station didn’t open until 2016, 20 years after being voted on and 10 years behind schedule. The extension also cost $1.8 billion on its own.

From the same wiki page I cited earlier:

> The ballot measure failed to pass on March 14, 1995, and the light rail line was shortened to 25 miles (40 km), between the University District and Sea-Tac Airport. Voters approved the $3.9 billion package on November 5, 1996

> The initial segment identified and approved by Sound Transit later that year shortened the line to 14 miles (23 km), between Downtown Seattle and a southern Tukwila station near Sea-Tac Airport. The remaining routes to the airport and University District were sent back to the planning stage, and re-organized into separate light rail projects.

> Planning of the Portage Bay tunnel between Capitol Hill and the University District was suspended due to higher than expected contractor bids, attributed to difficult soil conditions.

> The line was extended north to University of Washington station, via Capitol Hill station, on March 19, 2016, via a $1.8 billion, 3.15-mile (5.07 km) tunnel.

quantumwannabe··on How the US can stop wasting billions of dollars on each transit project
The money spent was more than what the voters approved. Making a new estimate that is much higher and spending less than that isn't coming in "under budget".
quantumwannabe··on How the US can stop wasting billions of dollars on each transit project
They’re wrong. The project was delayed several years and was several billion over budget.

>The Central Link project was originally planned to open in 2006 and projected to cost $1.9 billion (equivalent to $2.95 billion in 2020 dollars), but the estimates were found to be unrealistic by auditors in November 2000. New executives, hired by Sound Transit to replace previous program directors, presented a revised plan with an opening date pushed back three years to 2009, costing $3.8 billion (equivalent to $5.53 billion in 2020 dollars).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_1_(Sound_Transit)#Budget_...

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