197 karma · joined September 15, 2008
what we are, we're the people who will live with reduced wealth for decades to come. debt must be unwound and asset prices reverted to the mean. there is no shortcut. regimes that have taken shortcuts have ended violently. for example, monarchist france and weimar germany.
we are, ONCE AGAIN (like 2002), attempting to put off (inevitable) deflation with hyperinflation. or do you think pumping like $3 trillion globally into markets will have no impact on currencies? the dollar will not make it to 2025
if you want the single best cardio/toning workout, i cannot recommend the rowing machine enough. if you think this is a lightweight cardio workout, my guess is that you have never tried it. the first two minutes are a joke...in ten minutes you won't think its a joke
otherwise running can't be beat. i do a trail marathon a month on avg. trail running is the shit.
because IPOs are risky, and people are avoiding risk
and the web economy is maturing in ways that just aren't friendly to small sites. google has become an accretion disc for all ad revenue that even other big websites can't compete with. the major sites are paying good wages to good talent...increasingly engineers will take $120k for 9-5 from yahoo over a lottery ticket and slave labor from a startup
the recession will just wake most "founder" types up to the reality that their payday will never emerge
the big win is that every browser on your system now gets the same level of adblocking.
DEBT UNWINDING
the world has flooded itself in debt, far more than any economic expansion or confidence can handle. there is always an inflection point where confidence in debt unravels. this is why even the govt can't stop the debt unwinding.
until a significant de-leveraging takes hold, all markets will stay in the toilet
for de-leveraging to take place, assets need to be repriced
we are now in a period i will call
THE GREAT REPRICING
all assets will be repriced. you see stocks reprice quickly now because they are the most liquid asset. bonds are next. houses will continue to fall. in the end, houses will fall by a minimum of 50%. i say this as a homeOWNER, i have already made peace with the fact that my home (in desirable bay area) will fall by 50%. in some places they have already fallen 50%
this is the exact experience of the japanese in the 90s. even 0% interest rates could not induce more consumption and debt. it took them TEN YEARS to work it off
the psychological impact of layoffs is the antithesis of growth, which all bay area companies are trying to project
if they didn't need to layoff, they would just put the excess headcount on cruise control, like google and yahoo do
when you hear "lotus notes", RUN THE OTHER WAY AS FAST AS YOU CAN
anyone who has actually used it will agree
if things were nearly as much of a lock as this person demands, i sure as shit wouldn't have to slum it with angel funding, i could go to a marquee vc firm
maybe your boyfriend can explain it to you
the freedom chair owns it anyway
the issue is whether these dollars are worth anything
i would argue that if the US debt hits $25 trillion, its over. the dollar will die and with it the US govt.