quirino

The 80% is not the proportion of people who think he would win, that's not how these things work.

Every single factor was pointing towards Bolsonaro, Polymarket was just consistent with that.

He unexpectedly won the first round of the election. His lead was expected to grow since he'd likely get most of the votes of the other candidates. 17 out of 18 polls favored Bolsonaro. Market movements indicated a strong expectation of him winning. The Brazilian Real futures are already down 10% in the last couple hours.

But that's how democracy works, I think this election will be studied many times in the future.

Ted Chiang is incredible, my favorite writer.

I also recommend "Exhalation", though that has nothing to do with AI.

They're probably talking about the controller vs mouse and keyboard.

The rollercoaster on your landing page could use some better logic for when to restart. Or not do it at all. I kept restarting it automatically by moving a little bit.

I find this style of "heavy dark borders/shadows" one of the ugliest recent trends on the web. It's rarely done well.

But otherwise the website looks pretty great. Vibe coded websites usually transmit the feeling of: "nobody even bothered to look at this", and that's not the case with yours at all.

In your lists where elements are separated by horizontal lines, I would remove the horizontal line after the last element. That's quite easy in CSS.

The treadmills at my gym have a big display with YouTube. Each time I run for ~1 hour and watch one of those Walking Tour videos.

It's much easier to run with something to distract you from the pain of running. Time really flies by.

Tokyo is a great pick for this kind of thing. It's big, so I usually pick a specific neighborhood (Hiroo, Shibuya...).

atuin kind of fixes this habit, when you click up you get a list of the latest commands, and you can just start typing to search. It's extremely natural.

My experience in Brazil: Uber is way cheaper here. Compared to what I paid in San Francisco, I'd estimate a ~10x difference. And things here are rarely 10x cheaper. The difference in restaurants is probably less than ~2x.

My point being it probably feels like less of a luxury for us than for people in the US.

I'd say it's probably the most popular app too. I've never met people who used others.

I've been studying these a bunch for a project in university. Last week I went over the derivation of the ELBO for a couple hours and it was a very fun and elucidating exercise.

Once you give names to the larger mathematical structures and understand them a bit better it becomes quite simple. I wish some of the blogs/papers I'd read had named "Importance Sampling".

The probability notation can be pretty confusing too. Sometimes it's hard to understand the "types" of some variables. But I'm inexperienced.

ChatGPT was surprisingly helpful. If you put in the work to truly understand the where the gaps are in your mental model (which parts aren't completely intuitive), it can do an amazing job filling in the gaps.

I think many people would consider 60fps to be a minimum and 30fps to be almost disorienting, even for casual games.

Gamers often go for 120-240Hz monitors even.

A couple days ago they had published an overall score of 53 for this model, but that was removed and today it returned with a score of 56.

I wasn't able to find an explanation from them. Anyone knows what happened?

Sometimes I wonder, if I read a piece of Claude writing back in 2020, would I feel how alien it is? Would I be off-put?

It's still 50% off apparently. Listed as $0.10 for input (original price was $1.0 without this reduction or sale)

According to the link I mentioned above it's roughly as good as GPT-5.4. Haven't tried it in practice yet.

I bet it must be better in some contexts and worse in others.

I generally just check the Price/Performance graph on Openrouter: https://openrouter.ai/rankings#performance#benchmarks. Activate the "Show Pareto" toggle on the right.

I was still using GLM-5.2 in my personal projects, but this just made Luna a very easy choice.

Even if LLMs lied 30% of the time, they would still be about as useful as they currently are for me.

When I ask for their input, it's always for a situation where I'm capable of judging if their input is useful or not.

In all situations I use them, it doesn't matter if they're correct at all. I'm asking for ideas, alternatives, links for blogs or articles. I talk things out with them...

I don't think we should ever "trust" LLMs. This seems like the wrong usecase for them.

The gov.uk Design System calls this the "Exit a page quickly" pattern [1], with an associated component [2]. It can be activated by clicking the Shift key three times.

There's this nice blog [3] that explains why they chose Shift instead of other keys, and also gives a nice overview of the pattern.

[1] https://design-system.service.gov.uk/patterns/exit-a-page-qu... [2] https://design-system.service.gov.uk/components/exit-this-pa... [3] https://beeps.website/blog/2024-10-09-why-govuk-exit-this-pa...

3Blue1Brown just released a viduo about this Intelligence-Compression connection.

https://youtu.be/l6DKRf-fAAM

I've had good fun reading about best practices for forms in Adam Silver's blog.

https://adamsilver.io/blog/form-design-from-zero-to-hero-all...

He has posted many new things since. Probably one of the best UX resources on the web.

That's actually one of the more polished sites of this genre, thanks for sharing!

Sent some waves to a couple of friends

If you're a Spotify user, you can get even more precise data by downloading your listening data. The website I linked gets data from MusicBrainz and tries to fill in the gaps with an average, but even then it gets some things wrong.

E.g. Fishmans - Long Season is a 40 minute song, but the website's considers it as divided into 4-5 parts. And you don't have to listen to the full song to get a scrobble.

In the Spotify data you get the exact number of seconds you listened to it. And it is surprisingly complete and easy to use too. With LLMs I bet you can load it into pandas and construct queries for any insight you want in seconds.

last.fm is one of my very favorite services. It's rough around the edges in some parts, but I've gotten incredible value from it. A couple of websites built on it that I check out from time to time:

- https://lastfmviz.netlify.app/ - shows what you've been listening to as a grid of album covers. You can scroll down as long as you want. It's cool to look back and remember where I was when listening to specific music.

- https://lastfmstats.com/ - generates tons of rankings, line charts, racing bar charts, etc. A couple I like: "Artist streaks" (I listened to Pavement tracks 122 times in a row in August 2023), "Unique artists in a single month" (225 in July 2025) and "Unique weeks per artist/album/track" (good to identify what you're always listening to vs. what you listened to heavily in a specific time)

- https://pmcdonough8133.github.io/last.timer/ - shows your listening rankings by hours, minutes instead of just scrobble count. This really should be a default feature in the site, as some artists have average track length 2-3x times of others.

If you use Spotify, another site I've had loads of fun with is https://explorify.link/.

Yesterday, or the day before, Google lowered the AI Pro quota from 33x standard usage to 4x.

From the talk on the Gemini subreddit it's severely lower than before. I'm likely canceling my AI Pro.

The update also broke the app for me. Editing a message crashes the app every time. I'm on a Pixel lol

I think the parent's point is: a couple of years ago handwriting was the only option. You'd see a post like this and know it was something special.

With LLMs, we can't tell anymore if something is a labor of love with hundreds of hours of work behind it, or half a dozen prompts to Claude Code.

On optimizing binary search: https://en.algorithmica.org/hpc/data-structures/binary-searc...

I was wondering why the original poster chose 21. Maybe it was because he's 34 and that's the previous Fibonacci number.

Following this logic, you're precisely the age you should be to write a list like this :P

One of my favorite web apps for testing your microphone and camera has this echo feature built in, with 0s, 1s and 3s delay:

https://webcammictest.com/mic/

The best way to discover music nowadays is RateYourMusic. I go to an album I like, read a couple reviews to find like-minded people and check out their profiles. They often have lists with their favorite albums.

The album chart queries are also incredible. The site has a very detailed system of genres and descriptors so you can find exactly what you want.

Tried it out now, pretty nice.

Note that apps built from the SDK don't have access to the full history, only up to some cutoff. I tried a couple over the years and wrongly concluded Spotify deleted your history after some time.

The data download does contain everything, which was a very pleasant surprise. I didn't think I'd ever see the data from the couple years gap in my last.fm.

I'm a big fan of last.fm.

If you use Spotify, you can download your full listening history here: https://www.spotify.com/us/account/privacy/. You get it in a pretty convenient JSON format and with a little bit of code it's pretty easy to create some visualizations.

There are also websites for visualizing this data. I'm quite fond of this one: https://explorify.link/. It allows you to do some custom queries.