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rbavocadotree

344 karma · joined February 5, 2019

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rbavocadotree··on Fashionable Problems
No, lots of economists don't. Especially considering how important of a problem it is. It's a "hot topic" because of public opinion at the moment. We have not been attacking it in new and creative ways for decades.
rbavocadotree··on Fashionable Problems
The fact that the field thinks it is a solved problem is a marvelous example of what the essay is talking about!
rbavocadotree··on Fashionable Problems
Two areas where I have a little experience:

Economics: There are surprisingly little people studying very large, grand, topics such an inequality. You've probably heard of the handful of economists that do. It's unfashionable due to the influence of the Chicago school and it's focus on free market principles, as well as many other factors.

Physics: Good luck getting any interest or funding if you are not studying the currently dominant theory in your field (even if there has been no progress in decades).

rbavocadotree··on The Bloomberg Terminal, Explained
Plus it's not like they are just handed out and you're on your own. A nice man or woman in a suit will spend many hours sitting beside you teaching you everything you want to know. And anytime you are confused you press the help key twice and you are connected with someone who will take you through step by step what to do. And this isn't outsourced IT support. It's a person in New York who knows the product really well.
rbavocadotree··on The Bloomberg Terminal, Explained
Once you have a few terminals at your firm, Bloomberg will provide a dedicated router + tunnel on top off the regular security. The bad actor would likely need to be internal to Bloomberg, and at that point there is nothing you can do.
rbavocadotree··on The Bloomberg Terminal, Explained
That's actually what is happening a lot of the time. The humans are just monitoring and stepping in when needed or when they get bored.
rbavocadotree··on The Bloomberg Terminal, Explained
A trader has an idea about what inflation will look like in 2025-2030 (The 5 Year period starting 5 years from now).

Lots of other people have ideas about the same thing, so there is a product you can buy or sell to bet on it.

She asks her broker what price they can buy or sell it. The broker asks how much she wants and gives a price.

This conversation is so common that there is an agreed upon structure for it. Bloomberg parses all your conversations and provides you with an aggregated view of all quotes brokers have offered you. You can then chart/do whatever you want with this data.

rbavocadotree··on Browser-based climate change simulation
From the 1975 US National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council Report

...we do not have a good quantitative understanding of our climate machine and what determines its course. Without the fundamental understanding, it does not seem possible to predict climate... [0]

The point is that there were a lot of climate models done in the 70's, and only a few of them were accurate. No one was randomly guessing, but the model you gave was not the consensus.

[0] https://skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s-in...

rbavocadotree··on Having Kids
Despite not having children, I like hearing about my coworker's and friend's kids. Complaining about them can get old, but funny stories and things they are proud of are great to hear. I don't think I'm unique in this.
rbavocadotree··on S&P 500 Buybacks Now Outpace All R&D Spending in the US
AQR published a paper on share buybacks last year [0] with the opening sentence "People seem to forget some of the very basic lessons of financial economics when it comes to share repurchases".

One of the big things missed by all the articles covering share repurchases, is that they are increasing at a rate similar to company market cap. That shouldn't be too surprising. The real story is why is R&D not keeping up?

It's worth a read for a more nuanced view.

[0] https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/dcc3/e0d7288395c2891f1fee19...

rbavocadotree··on Sundar will be the CEO of both Google and Alphabet
Huh? Why would you expect any of that in this letter?
rbavocadotree··on Help me ask why you didn't just
It's funny reading all the debate about different wordings because it totally misses the point. The wording doesn't matter, only the delivery does. The recipients's interpretation of the question depends on who is saying it and how they say it. Whether or not they include the word "just" is irrelevant. Any single one of the phrases mentioned can be delivered in a way that causes offense or doesn't.
rbavocadotree··on Ask HN: Quitting Big Tech, what is it like?
Maybe you forget how many hours are in a day? After 40h a week at starbucks you can't consult, teach, sit on multiple boards, and program everyday.

Also, I've worked as a barista. My high paying tech job is waaaay easier.

rbavocadotree··on A new school curriculum
I learned most of this in school. Did everyone else not?

My partner is a grade 2 teacher, and she covers a lot of this. Everything in learning skills, individual skills, social skills, and most of our world.

You probably just don't recognize it when it's taught at a level understandable to six year olds, or 14 year old. Before writing posts like this it's a good idea to go look at a your school board's curriculum. You'll likely be surprised how closely it matches this.

rbavocadotree··on Why Are Canadian Construction Costs So High? (2018)
Toronto is a larger city than Chicago, and has more construction. We hold international conferences.
rbavocadotree··on Slack’s new WYSIWYG input box is terrible
65 of the fortune 100 companies use slack.
rbavocadotree··on Ask HN: What's the most valuable thing you can learn in an hour?
This is a great start. You should spend an hour a week having a conversation about your shared future, whatever that may mean to you.
rbavocadotree··on Ask HN: What's the most valuable thing you can learn in an hour?
Nonsense. Eat 4000 calories a day, every day, and lift heavy weights. You will quickly gain lots of weight.
rbavocadotree··on The cognitive costs of air pollution
Here's a disappointingly simple and well known one: Momentum. It produces real, statistically significantly, excess risk-adjusted returns over an index.

The remarkable thing is that it has been well known for decades, and continues to work. Many fortunes have been made by systematically exploiting it.

rbavocadotree··on The cognitive costs of air pollution
As someone who works for a quantitative hedge fund, you wouldn't believe how many similar results I see of researchers showing a statistically significant predictor of stock market returns. Almost every single one of them is garbage.

But your point stands. The paper has nothing to do with cognitive ability. So why is it being used as evidence?

rbavocadotree··on The cognitive costs of air pollution
From the original source:

> Stock market returns are lower on polluted days.

I don't want to dismiss the entire article, but I think this points to possibility that there is some bad statistics going on here. I don't see how daily stock returns are proof of, or even related to, cognitive ability on a daily basis.

This is exactly the type of finding you'd expect with p-hacking.

rbavocadotree··on Renaissance Technologies
Simons had other investment funds, but they were mainly focused on early stage, private tech companies.

He did have about 10 years worth of poor-to-decent results running other hedge funds before he found real success with RenTech. So it's not like this all came out of nowhere.

rbavocadotree··on Renaissance Technologies
It's an interesting idea, but in this case Fund B only came into existence after 15+ years of market beating performance by fund A.

A funny thing from the recent book: One of Rentech's earlier employees spent his first few months there trying to figure out what the scam was.

rbavocadotree··on Modern Data Practice and the SQL Tradition
I'm pretty suspicious of the idea that most companies have data that is too big for a non-distributed environment.

I do think that most companies log lots of data in different places without much thought or structure, and as a result need a "data scientist", who spends most of their time simply aggregating and cleaning data that can then easily be processed on a single machine. ie: they spend 10% of their time doing statistics.

Maybe I'm wrong, but the above is how all the data scientists that I know describe their work.

rbavocadotree··on Wait a Minute. How Can They Afford That When I Can’t?
15% of the average US take home salary is about 7.5k. Can you live on that for a year? How about support a family?

You have truly lost touch with average people if you think your situation is even close to normal.

rbavocadotree··on Robinhood Traders Discovered a Glitch That Gave Them ‘Infinite Leverage’
What you've described is a very quick way to lose your broker dealers license, and get in massive shit from multiple federal agencies, not a safe way to get rich.

> CLEARLY, Robinhood knows about the infinite leverage bug

This is the same company that offered FDIC insured savings and checking accounts, while not actually being covered by FDIC. They have always taken a move fast a break things approach, and then had to cover their asses when regulators step in.

rbavocadotree··on Some Favorite Non-Technical Books (2018)
If Dostoevsky is not difficult to read, then there exist only a handful of authors who are. Maybe it isn't difficult to find enjoyment in his works, but there is a hell of a lot more going on than just depressive psychological drama.
rbavocadotree··on The making of Jim Simons
Renaissance is a notoriously secretive company.

Regarding the senate hearings, they were in 2014. Only the banks involved have paid any sort of penalty. In 2016 Simons and Robert Mercer each donated over 25 million to the Democrats and Republicans respectively. So that's not a huge surprise.

rbavocadotree··on Gitlab: don't discuss politics at work
> nature or nurture

This has been studied now, and the data points strongly towards nature. Country's with a higher level of gender equality have more gender disparity in fields such as STEM, not less. The country's that have done the most to alleviate the issues you've mentioned have the lowest percentage of women engineers.

It was the exact opposite of what everyone thought would happen. These results were so unexpected that we called it the Gender-equality paradox.

rbavocadotree··on The myth of the teacher pay gap?
There's more to the story though. In my partner's school district it takes an average of 7 years of supply teaching before you land a full time position. You are making about half as much and get little benefits during that time. So after schooling that's 13 years of preparation for a 64k job.

She also works a lot more than 40 hour weeks and has to deal with some pretty intense stuff.

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