At this point nobody should assume good faith on Trump's part... not citizens, not allies, not adversaries engaged in negotiation. It turns out "The Art of the Deal" is simply lying.
2,537 karma · joined July 16, 2018
The exchange/marketplace is the oldest business in the world. How absurd that in 2026 seats on exchanges cost millions and the entities that control exchanges are mechanisms of gatekeeping rather than quality control -- the cronyism shown to SpaceX reveals just how corrupt it's become.
We all have a limit after which we lack the attention (or attention to detail, or time, or energy, etc.) to meaningfully manage it.
Similarly, a manager may be able to handle a team of two very well but end up poorly managing a team of 20.
It used to be that knowing how to write code was a big factor in productivity. Now it is less of a factor compared to the many other cognitive and metacognitive faculties that working with agentic teams demand.
Given that, I would expect that in hindsight OpenAI and Anthropic would spend 40% of what they have on compute if starting over and knowing the actual landscape.
The massive capital allocation was a blind decision and they swung big.
It is still possible that techniques will be developed that create a moat where the massive hardware capex is justified, but US policies of banning competitive GPUs and blocking frontier lab releases makes such things far less likely.
"Escape velocity" for AI is when the open weight models are good enough to help drive the next frontier innovations/techniques. I think we are close to that if not already there, at which point it's a race to commoditization no matter what Altman or Lutnik wish will happen.
The goal is not "how can I do blackmail-worthy activities without being blackmailed?" the goal is "how can I participate in a narrow way without, for example, having those reading my content biased by my LinkedIn profile or my corporate affiliation?"
We don't walk around wearing little badges that identify every organization we affiliate with, every group, etc. Why would anyone want their online participation burdened by all that extra (usually irrelevant) information?
In my case, I don't write content I would worry about some determined prose fingerprinter finding, and if I did I would sanitize the prose first :)
I'd argue that it only matters when the goal is to convert "real name" accounts into something that is effectively merged with an Experian soft credit score, Google supercookie-powered profile, etc.
I don't know why someone would want to have the same identity in the workplace as on internet forums, for example.
Social media appears to have given many people the idea that they ought to cultivate their public identity from an early age as preparation for internet fame / personal branding.
1) many disagreements are not ultimately about facts but about intentionally different tradeoffs/prioritization.
2) if in fact one argues on facts/logic then losing the argument means you had your own logic or facts corrected, which should be a good thing, not a bad one.
Meanwhile we in the US are blocked from buying Huawei GPUs and retirees are boasting about the nvidia in their portfolios.
We in the United States will never forget!
For all the harm Trump does to the US at least he is helping China!
Bad Federal regulation has a much larger blast radius.
Let’s hope Chinese models save us from this. BYD is trying to save us from Elon but 100% tariffs are welfare keeping Elon afloat.
I’m quite confident that few people are more ignorant on AI than Donald Trump. That he promised less regulation and lied is no different than his many other lies.
In six months everyone will cancel frontier subscriptions.
Now all of the businesses who use Apple products as an input are more likely to raise their own prices, etc. This is how inflation happens across the economy. Trade war leads to price increases on Apple's inputs, Apple has to raise prices, etc.
You can create contrived logic problems, but they often turn into language games because English is not formal logic.
And you can train on "monty hall" style problems, but those too are language games that are intriguing to humans but obvious when framed slightly differently.
In other words, model trainers are fighting against the overwhelming mediocrity of the training corpus (all of the recorded human output from history).
As models improve, the next phase will be models co-designed with humans to overcome these limits. The way we use language and the process we use to problem solve (we currently call this "orchestration") will evolve as part of this. Meatspace metaphors map badly when we have massive context and don't need the same limits. How different is hallucination from extrapolation, etc.
Much of the skepticism and confusion about LLMs is no different than a person of average intelligence hearing a highly intelligent person explain something and considering the explanation gibberish, then arrogantly accusing the intelligent person of being unhelpful.
Much like dogs were domesticated from wolves to have traits that make them good around humans, LLMs will evolve around our limits, around our arrogance, around our aesthetic biases and prejudices. Intelligence and rationality is fundamentally not what most humans want from an LLM.
Most notably, any default assumption one might have had that the Trump administration can be counted upon to act in good faith should be viewed at this point as completely false. Even conservative legal scholars like Richard Epstein are shocked at the bad faith conduct across many areas.
This is a government making an authoritarian move to sabotage one of the top US AI companies. It's pure sabotage, nothing else.
Isn't the Cursor founder British?