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rory

1,682 karma · joined August 1, 2014

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rory··on How long til we're all on Ozempic?
By chance I just talked to someone with deeper knowledge on this and they said the current constraint is actually ramping up supply of the delivery mechanism, not the drug.

I have zero expertise on this, but would be curious if anyone knows what's special about Ozempic delivery that can't be served by a commodity syringe.

rory··on Vancouver’s new mega-development is big, ambitious and Indigenous
I wonder if a more workable arrangement would stipulate that indigenous people are exempt from these regulations only when the work and management of a project is also designed and implemented by Indigenous people.

That would seemingly circumvent this loophole where a large, private corporation run by white canadians effectively uses the indigenous people as a loophole, cutting them in to circumvent regulations.

Wouldn't really help e.g. overfishing issues but seems directionally better.

rory··on U.S. GDP grew at a 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter, better than expected
No, it is really how it works, (as I caveated) most of the time.

I don't understand what you're arguing here. Is your claim that most of that government deficit was not spent in the domestic economy (therefore stimulating GDP growth)?

rory··on U.S. GDP grew at a 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter, better than expected
No, that's a bad analogy. It's more like I borrowed 8% of my annual income this year, and then bought 4% more than last year. If I hadn't borrowed all that money, I wouldn't have been able to buy that much. It's both intuitively obvious and empirically demonstrable that government deficits stimulates economic growth in the immediate term, since most government expenditure happens in the domestic economy.
rory··on U.S. GDP grew at a 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter, better than expected
Appreciate you fighting the good fight here, but this one is actually a valid point. If real GDP growth is at 4.9% while the government deficit is at 5.3% of GDP, (in most cases) GDP isn't actually growing organically.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S

rory··on U.S. GDP grew at a 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter, better than expected
The 8% deficit listed above _is_ a percentage of total GDP of the whole country (although the Fed has it at only 5.3%). The numbers are directly comparable.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S

rory··on Bandcamp's Entire Union Bargaining Team Was Laid Off
The comment I'm replying to claimed fewer people _want_ jobs in a system such as Germany's.
rory··on Bandcamp's Entire Union Bargaining Team Was Laid Off
Odd then that the USA has a much lower labor force participation rate than Germany.
rory··on Refusing to teach kids math will not improve equity
> The hoi polloi that can't afford the voucher plus mountain of money private school tuition

What are you talking about? The voucher is supplied by the state, and charter schools are definitionally tuition-free to students and their families.

rory··on Legacy and Athlete Preferences at Harvard (2020) [pdf]
I think that's fair so long as you exclude e.g. sailing "athletes."
rory··on Legacy and Athlete Preferences at Harvard (2020) [pdf]
I'd be curious to know how much the ~25pt asian-white SAT score gap is explained by ALDC students. In other words-- how much harder is it for a non-ALDC asian student to get into Harvard than a non-ALDC white student?
rory··on Ask HN: Why isn't remote work advertised as a pro environment initiative?
The savings from turning household heat down during the day aren't trivial, but they aren't very large either. You can keep your heat ~10-20°F lower during the day when you're not home and save energy, but then additional energy is needed later in the day to get the temperature back up. Typical estimates are that this lowers gas or oil consumption by 10-15%, and only in the colder months. Certainly dwarfed by energy spent commuting, on average.

Your comment on the second+ order effects is much more interesting, but also much more uncertain.

rory··on What’s so great about functional programming anyway?
Thank you!
rory··on What’s so great about functional programming anyway?
Do you know of an example snippet / article demonstrating how to do this?
rory··on Myocarditis after Covid vaccination: Research on possible long-term risks begins
Although the national mandate was struck down, some states have their own mandate.
rory··on How to Escape Scientific Stagnation
Capitalism: focused on short term profit

Also capitalism: invests billions in Tesla at a p/e ratio that implies a payback period longer than a millennium

rory··on U.S. workers have gotten less productive – no one is sure why
It serves the important function of giving journos an opportunity to interview business consultants about what CEOs think of their employees' poop breaks.

Which, in generating lots of hate clicks, is a huge economic boost in terms of Nonfarm Business Sector Labor Productivity!

rory··on US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6%
> maybe US government will leave it high

Although the Fed can backstop commercial paper in emergencies (and they did so at the beginning of the pandemic), it's extremely unlikely that they start taking on enough to move rates in the medium term (like they did with mortgage backed securities). So this is not a rate that the government controls except very indirectly.

rory··on Lufthansa bans AirTags in checked luggage
I understand-- I looked it up, and although they're only buying Airbus going forward, most of their 10-across fleet is still 777: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_fleet
rory··on Lufthansa bans AirTags in checked luggage
I'm pretty ignorant of airplane models, Air France flight but it was a large plane so may have been a Boeing 777.
rory··on Lufthansa bans AirTags in checked luggage
Before landing on the last flight I was on, the flight attendants requested that everyone turn off their phones (even if in airplane mode) due to the weather conditions while landing. Does anyone know what purpose that could possibly serve?

This was in France if that's a relevant clue.

rory··on Ask HN: What am I supposed to do after I’m “disrupted”? Work in video and CG
> AÍ imagemaking doesn’t compare really to spending 10 hours agonising over lighting a shot which is what I love

I sympathize with you a lot here.

But it's not really a new problem that great art usually doesn't have commercial value commensurate to effort or quality.

rory··on Over 50% of CEOs say they’re considering cutting jobs over the next 6 months
Yeah, the cutoff points for any rule of thumb are going to be fairly arbitrary. I don't understand why people are treating this like a profound observation.
rory··on Ask HN: What am I supposed to do after I’m “disrupted”? Work in video and CG
Are you genuinely asking for advice on what to do? It seems like your options are embrace the new tech, find a niche where you can outcompete it, or find a new way to support yourself that you like better. HN can't tell you which of those to choose.

Personally I think there's a good chance you're overestimating the the extent to which your day-to-day job will actually change by incorporating AI. Machine learning was supposed to take over data science years ago, but data scientists are in more demand than ever, and their work often doesn't involve too much actual machine learning.

rory··on Ask HN: What am I supposed to do after I’m “disrupted”? Work in video and CG
I think it's more likely that people are simply thinking of the AI algo as doing too much, rather than this kind of tool becoming a general failure. There will likely be many, many steps before, during, and after AI image / video generation that will need a highly skilled human in the loop to produce a great result.
rory··on Over 50% of CEOs say they’re considering cutting jobs over the next 6 months
It clearly does fit the rule because the year doesn't start in February. There's no need to change reality so you were right.

It's just a rule of thumb, not some profound maxim of economics.

rory··on Over 50% of CEOs say they’re considering cutting jobs over the next 6 months
It did: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=UtHh

Only two though-- Q2 was so sharp that everything after that was recovery.

rory··on Girls in Yoga Pants Explain the Higher Education Apocalypse
So she didn't actually talk to the women in the pictures about this issue, right? Maybe this is related to a running joke on the blog that doesn't make sense out of context?
rory··on Girls in Yoga Pants Explain the Higher Education Apocalypse
> Other countries have this model, particularly in Europe, where college isn't a requirement for employment, but a benefit none-the-less.

If anything, European companies are more credentialist when it comes to degrees than their USA equivalents.

The European model is better simply because it's free-to-cheap for the student.

rory··on Paul McCartney's Freakish Memory
Yeah the article treats George Martin producing it like a cool coincidence. But it seems more likely that he heard the song, perhaps many times, because Martin played it.
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