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sailfast

4,110 karma · joined July 13, 2011

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sailfast··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
That implies malice on the part of DHS. I tend to lean more toward incompetence as the most likely culprit these days.

If the conspiracy goes deeper than a layer or two I get skeptical. Moving forward, it would be a good idea to have a bunch of fake identities in Active Directory - but I can hear the internal conversations about seat costs already :)

sailfast··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
Unfortunately it’s very much a legal militia until proven otherwise.

Know that you don’t have to bend the knee to work for the government. You still have your oath, your union, and the knowledge that this ends in two years. Many have left, but not all. Those who stayed don’t necessarily agree or like what is happening.

sailfast··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
I’ll update my threat model to include sophisticated non-state human traffickers or smugglers that are all sharing intel with each other if that’s what you’re suggesting? Or perhaps just selling in the dark to whomever is buying? Sounds like you know this is happening?

I’m not making a good guy / bad guy judgment here FWIW. I do, however, find it less likely a smaller scale non-state operation would bother hacking a government agency or buying info on the open market. Sounds like it’s a higher priority than I thought.

Makes sense for larger orgs at higher levels - but I admit my mental model didn’t think about parallel private attempts to exploit, sell, use and otherwise secure comms. It was a blind spot. Seemed too leaky and obvious given the incentives to leak information - but I clearly don’t understand bad guys very well.

sailfast··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
I don’t personally believe that everyone at ICE is specifically focused on this administration’s efforts (most are of course and many have quit in protest). In the past, the agency has done work that you’d probably want done around human smuggling and trafficking, anti-terrorism (actual terrorism) etc, and I wouldn’t paint all agents with such a broad brush. People stick around in the hopes they can do a good job again when the next guy lands. Sometimes!

Anyway - I just wanted to point out that these things can have consequences in the real world for people that aren’t necessarily the evil people you paint a picture of in your head. This isn’t a “oh just a few bad apples” thing - on the contrary that agency is quite rotten and should be disbanded.

Not a value judgment. Just sayin’ that this dump is 53+ certified undercover legal names out in the open.

sailfast··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
I’m not saying that at all. I’m merely suggesting that there’s potential that non-state actors like a local human smuggling ring, drug ring, or human trafficking operation may now be able to easily type in some name and figure out they have been infiltrated.

Of course it’s possible some bad guys had this. But probably not all of them.

EDIT: I would also not equate these leaks to the NSA leaks in terms of resources and sophistication required to know about the NSA programs vs potential public access on the open internet with this one. Resources and intelligence required seems quite a higher bar, but that’s just me being an armchair quarterback.

sailfast··on Leak Exposes 41,000 Homeland Security Workers–Including Undercover ICE Agents
Whatever your feelings about ICE and this administration, there are probably some undercover folks in real danger at the moment. Probably doing some real work to stop some real abuses that you’d want them to stop. (Not saying all - but likely some / many to be in that program)

So - while I might agree that secretive domestic organizations like MI5 should not exist and sunlight is good for government, I feel for the families of the folks that might catch a bullet because of this.

sailfast··on MacBook Pro with PROLED XDR Display and Touch
Other than the “you can now make software samplers and soundboards” I don’t know why you would want a touch screen on a laptop.

The entire purpose of the laptop (for me at any rate) is to do real work without the touch screen.

I’m not sure what pro workflows would actually benefit from this vs. a wirelessly paired iPad. I would not pay a dollar extra for touch personally - but that screen does look nice.

sailfast··on Expanding our partnership with GSA to bring Claude to all levels of government
Turns out anyone with a 401K is also invested.

But we’re also taxpayers. So maybe there’s an equilibrium.

Also ideally some competition between those providers that will keep prices in line. (Spoiler: it absolutely does)

GSA also requires that the government is the lowest cost customer so nobody on earth is allowed any better deal. This also applies pressure. You have to rely on incentives in the end.

If you assume nobody has any integrity and incentives are all fake and nobody will hold to their agreements then there isn’t really a “public” good anymore anyway so what’s the point in trying to make a public cloud? It would just lead to grift at larger scale that wouldn’t even benefit our stock portfolios.

sailfast··on Expanding our partnership with GSA to bring Claude to all levels of government
It’s a good sentiment, but that’s not how it currently works outside of agencies like the NSA that have some special needs and maybe the technical capacity. (Granted it’s been a minute for me so maybe this has changed) Either way it’s all contractors for the most part. In-house roles are not as flexible and don’t pay market.

I don’t actually think you want the federal government doing their own cloud work tbh. It’s a hugely expensive endeavor and the incentives are not there to do it right across government.

These agreements are pretty iron clad and the data centers are often separate and have their own setups.

Once a cross-cutting services agency like DISA or GSA own the stuff they quickly become a bottleneck for government agencies because they can, and then each agency goes out and fights for their own budgets to avoid the bottleneck, and then we’re back to renting.

It’s often better for service to have separate agreements with agreed upon commercial providers for this reason.

sailfast··on Survival LLM: AI assistant and emergency library that runs on your own computer
At what point would it be better to download a few real sources and do plain text search? Why risk a hallucination for content that would probably be smaller than the size of the model?!
sailfast··on Expanding our partnership with GSA to bring Claude to all levels of government
Claude gov is AWS Bedrock hosted on GovCloud which is managed via GSA schedule and FEDRAMP. So… that’s how GSA does exactly that these days.
sailfast··on AI promised less work. I've never worked more
While that is true, I find that in a small company / startup environment you are almost always working on something that will contribute to revenue. The list is long. And you don’t have that much time for nonsense if you’re doing it right.

The other factor here is scaling of humans. Without these tools we would need a lot more humans. We don’t need as many but the ones we do have are heavily taxed. That salary savings should be passed on (again, relative productivity to AI spend) but we’ll see!

sailfast··on AI promised less work. I've never worked more
This tracks with my experience. The other bit that contributes here is that upstream inputs using AI also get faster - so you’re basically speeding up the entire machine but you’re still a human.

Unfortunately this means that you always feel the need to keep building or fall behind (picturing Lucy and Ethel at the chocolate factory) which means you’re pretty much always feeling burnt out and it feels harder to step away than ever before without feeling a certain way about it.

I hate it. It’s the best time ever to build. That excitement lasted about a year - but now it’s a treadmill I can’t escape and companies are not really paying more for the productivity (even factoring in the cost of my AI usage)

sailfast··on Dutch government had hacked into Jared Kushner's phone
Clear, extrajudicial funding outside of the law seems like one of those things? Iran/Contra comes to mind as a point of comparison but at least that had some tacit bureaucratic process to it.
sailfast··on Ask HN: If the models are so good, why doesn't OpenAI just start 100 companies?
Maybe a brand that recently got bought by a PE firm but doesn’t build good things anymore…

Brooks Brothers maybe?

sailfast··on IBM CEO says open weight models are now good and cheap on-prem
But I don’t need my LLMs part time? And we all live in the same time zone.

And what happens when the girl at the bar figures out that you TIMESHARE that Lambo?

sailfast··on No signs of AI payoff outside the tech sector
Do you mean the FTC? Typically the SEC is just concerned with trading regulation which would not prevent a merger.

Also I no longer assume any of these agencies will enforce their charters if the executive is sufficiently captured by companies as to allow mergers. For evidence I’d just gesture around at the latest batch of mergers.

sailfast··on No signs of AI payoff outside the tech sector
Yes? How are they going to prevent consolidation of mega corps?
sailfast··on No signs of AI payoff outside the tech sector
> the AI story will be decided in the S&P 493, not the Mag 7

Maybe? But aren’t they the Mag 7 for a reason? Don’t they control a substantial part of GDP? Don’t they have a significant impact on the global economy that the s&p 493 may not - especially with large scale adoption of these tools.

Not saying that this means AI spending at current rates will be profitable or not crash - but only that there may only be 7-10 big companies at the end of all of this and the S&P 493 will be irrelevant (it’s one potential scenario in my book at any rate)

sailfast··on Sam Altman: 'I No Longer Think We're Gonna Be Able to Just Patch All the Bugs'
Obligatory “We are all trying to find the one who did this!”

Sam Altman is definitely not Oppenheimer.

He is correct that everyone needs the models not just the offense that hacks their way into Mythos while the rest of us are left locked out and hoping for the best. But that statement is ALSO self-serving.

Kinda wish he’d gone into investment banking.

sailfast··on Ask HN: If the models are so good, why doesn't OpenAI just start 100 companies?
They ARE a consulting firm masquerading as SaaS.

They happen to have a SaaS product, but you cannot use it without paying up front for huge amounts of pro services. The SaaS product doesn’t work on its own. This isn’t necessarily bad, but it’s not magic software either.

sailfast··on Ask HN: If the models are so good, why doesn't OpenAI just start 100 companies?
McKinsey and Accenture are not the same. Brand-wise that’s Ferrari vs. Lexus.
sailfast··on Dutch government had hacked into Jared Kushner's phone
Kushner may not, but the excerpt indicates that Kushner’s lawyers only performed actions with approval of the president and in the interests of the United States.

So… the President is in pretty hot water if any senators decide to ask a few questions here.

sailfast··on Dutch government had hacked into Jared Kushner's phone
This just isn’t true. They _should_ have top notch security but that also requires responsible, security-aware action from the principal.

This assumption was destroyed during the first Trump administration and continued being eroded in his second. They do not practice good opsec. (See Signal app usage) Nobody is enforcing policies, and nobody tells the bosses that they can’t do something because [reason].

sailfast··on Disney Raising Prices Days After Confirming Ads Will Now Show Up on Every Tier
The real answer here is regulation around advertising, as well as regulation around appropriate size of media companies.

Scale is not required anymore to launch streaming platforms - white label works fine - and for the most part these major services sell property rights back and forth anyway every few months to keep you subscribed.

It’s pure cartel / oligopoly behavior. Can’t imagine this gets better since Ellison owns HBO and Paramount services.

sailfast··on Disney Raising Prices Days After Confirming Ads Will Now Show Up on Every Tier
I’m sure they will let you buy ESPN separately.
sailfast··on Disney Raising Prices Days After Confirming Ads Will Now Show Up on Every Tier
They choose piracy, then. Ok!
sailfast··on Jared Kushner Hacked Phone Reveals Secret Negotiations, Millions in Transactions
Shabbat.
sailfast··on Oregon lawmakers approve money to buy an iconic waterfall listed on Redfin
Happy for the monks but if they were real players they would’ve worked with the Land Trust Alliance to get this protected forever? Glad the state was able to step up though. Looks like a beautiful spot!
sailfast··on Security Disclosure
Plaid is listed as a customer. Good times.
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