scsilver

Wanted to add a preface: Thank you for your time on this article, I appreciate your perspective and experience, hoping you can help refine and reign in my bull case.

Where do you expect NVDA's forward and current eps to land? What revenue drop off are you expecting in late 2025/2026. Part of my bull case for NVDA, continuing, is it's very reasonable multiple on insane revenue. An leveling off can be expected, but I still feel bullish on it hitting $200+ (5 Trillion market cap? on ~195B revenue for Fiscal year 2026 (calendar 2025) at 33 EPS) based on this years revenue according to their guidance and the guidance of the hyperscalers spending. Finding a sell point is a whole different matter to being actively short. I can see the case to take some profits, hard for me to go short, especially in an inflationary environment (tariffs, electric energy, bullying for lower US interest rates).

The scale of production of Grace Hopper and Blackwell amaze me, 800k units of Blackwell coming out this quarter, is there even production room for AMD to get their chips made? (Looking at the new chip factories in Arizona)

R1 might be nice for reducing llm inferencing costs, unsure about the local llama one's accuracy (couldnt get it to correctly spit out the NFL teams and their associated conferences, kept mixing NFL with Euro Football) but I still want to train YOLO vision models on faster chips like A100's vs T4 (4-5x multiples in speed for me).

Lastly, if the Robot/Autonomous vehicle ML wave hits within the next year, (First drones and cars -> factories -> humanoids) I think this compute demand can sustain NVDA compute demand.

The real mystery is how we power all this within 2 years...

* This is not financial advice and some of my numbers might be a little off, still refining my model and verifying sources and numbers

Can you lead me to some background on this? I'd love to look at some of the routes and law behind it.

Would you like another mentee?

I don’t know about you but exercise is one of my most enjoyable parts of my day. Yoga, walking, biking, dancing, swimming are all really enjoyable. Don’t push yourself hard, just go through the motions.

Thank you for this. How hard would this be to port to ipad?

Does that Boulder group still meet? I used to go to the ones at Pivotal Labs years ago.

How did you get qualified to build?

They dream of hydraulic sheep instead.

What does an individual humans intelligence look like without the wisdom of institutions like family, extended family and community, schools, academys and conservatories, the public sphere, and their interpretations of the world.

I know a lot of my ability to organize the world and characterize objects comes from the organizational structures refined and propagated by these institutions

Its hard to enlighten your way into happiness when you have an infection. I think alot of “happiness” is based in health, physical, emotional, and the health of those you interact with. Atleast those are somewhat quantifiable ways to avoid needless suffering.

Have you ever wondered why the user is the product in so many internet companies?

I mean, thats what you want, I want a thriving adult to share life with.

I dont think that is true, society can create value from trade and good organization providing more resources to everyone for collectively the same amount of work.

How about a 1k ebike for everything you can use it for and the car for everything else?

Apple is getting into health care and thats where I see the growth and value generation over the next decade. I love apple right now, they are worth their premium and Im decking out my parents and grandparents in watches, phones, and computers so that They can stay connected, clear, and access all these new health focused features in their older age. Alot of the work of caretakers is being automated by apple’s platform and people will be able to stay independent longer because of it.

Which field hasn’t in your opinion?

Like Kodak?

Could you elaborate on the tax aspect?

This math doesn’t check out

Do people actually want to maintain a home or is it an idealism of financial security. Homes and handy work are getting very expensive. Are there unfair externalities for people to try and maintain homes far from cities? Especially the ones that sit unused most of the year.

I liked this line near the end that helps bring together the article “But what if the question isn’t who are you, but what socioeconomic structures contain who you are?”.

You needed engineers to maintain, calibrate, tune, and operate the equipment which was retro ee components, instruments that are used for decades. But as thingbs got more reliable, solid state, software emulation, hard drives instead of magnetic tape, you don’t need that ee knowledge to get a song made.

Then why can't they share a wework type office nearby their home instead of companies trying to utilize and manage all than space in the center of a city.

Urban, suburban, and rural really under describe alot of the different living densities available from American cities. My old suburban areas are getting more dense with shopping centers turning into pedestrian blocks with a outdoor shopping mall. The area I'm currently living in outside the city core, Is a really nice mix of tall and short buildings, and new large apartment developments fixing and improving walk ability. Compared to the city center, it's much quieter, cleaner, greener. How do we describe the suburban+ or urban-? At the end of the day, pedestrian accessibility is really underscoring new desirable developments, and this is what's open and accessible for the youth to move into.

I went into a bar and asked for a glass of wine they had already poured it into a plastic cup before informing me it was 19 bucks. I was mugged.

Apple taking back their devices and finding another use for their old parts or disposing of them in a standardized manner seems less wasteful. All you are really doing is subsidizing a cheaper used phone market.

Israel is a lifeboat not an office.

In my town, Uber absorbed a bunch of the travel, public transport was cut in half, and now with gas and other expenses no one can afford to run Ubers up here. Maybe one car around, often a 20 minute wait. Car pool services cannot fill the gap.

Personally I would love to see other nations and organizations get to the level of trust the US has with creditors. Alternatives are being sought, but the the same time, I'm not seeing any particular institution taking the lead.

The fed is effectively doing this right now with low interest rates. Diluting old debts (pay off early 2000s mortgage with modern wages) and cheapening the cost of new ones, (borrow at 4% when inflation is running around 5%). We all buy into it for one reason or another but the ultimate thing underpinning this dynamic is that capital trusts the US the most amongst all other debtors.