11,020 karma · joined February 28, 2014
I had a conversation about this very problem last November, with a visiting mathematician. It's essentially signaling a deflationary spiral in intellectual work: why bother doing the work now, when it will take half as much effort a year from now?
This is perhaps always a possible stance, but it's exacerbated when some proportion of your own agency is handed over to, well, agents.
https://waymo.com/blog/2025/10/creating-an-all-weather-drive...
I would generally expect this state to resolve quickly to "Proven and Verified" (the tendency in mathematics historically has been for complicated first-proofs of results, followed by significant reductions in proof complexity as new tools and definitions become available), but may still be useful for assigning real credit to who/whatever produces reasonable proof for a brute-force-verified result.
A well-known anticompetitive tactic is for a big player with a vast bank account to move into an area and eat losses while waiting for their competitors to starve. Well observed in the 90's movie rental market, so certainly real.
AI is shaping up to be a major concern amongst the non-tech segment of the population. Some of the arguments are good, some are dumb, but people largely are forming up against AI and datacenters. Yes, you should expect politicians to act on that; it's how the system is meant to work.
When all of your factory bits are randomly wearing down, causing speed mismatches and stochastic outright failures, large and complex chains become limited by your ability to run around and diagnose and fix things. Things also tend to fail in novel and unexpected ways; redesigns can help mitigate some failures, while new failures may be introduced. And as reliability improves, you start seeing failures that occur on longer timescales, which more trivial failures would initially mask.
This could hopefully happen somewhat faster with Israel, given that the government isn't a literal Nazi remnant, as the South African government was. (Though, ironically, the main arms supplier to South Africa during the arms embargo was Israel, often reselling weapons from the United States. Sigh.)
"By the late 1980s, the South African state was in profound crisis, crippled by international sanctions, a stagnant economy, and widespread resistance. Recognizing the unsustainable nature of the perpetual conflict, the government under P.W. Botha began tentative, secret contact with the imprisoned Nelson Mandela and the exiled African National Congress (ANC) leaders."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_South_Africa_(1948%...
The real question for education is whether we can get 'tutor-quality' education from ai interactions. One on one education is leagues better than classroom education; it's the one-true-result in education research. There's a massive opportunity here to improve outcomes, and in a generally available way. You can't clone a good teacher, but you can give everyone an ai tutor.