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shadowtreeon Predictive policing software terrible at predicting crimes

Which is why citizens in the US will keep getting harmed and killed at a rate unheard of in developed countries.

Just today: https://nypost.com/2023/10/03/tennessee-businessman-fatally-...

Father of 3 kids, murdered by a career criminal.

Over 60(!) prior arrests, wide range of violent crime, never served more than 6 months.

You guys have no solutions, no alternatives. Nothing besides empty platitudes of "social justice" and "serious arguments".

Bill Clinton briefly course corrected, three strike laws and such ... and crime started plummeting. As if banning leaded gasoline was the reason, haha. But then, social justice reared its head and here we are.

Crime and murder is coming for even the most bleeding heart socialists: https://nypost.com/2023/10/03/disturbing-video-shows-moment-...

Watch what the consequence of this total idiocy of soft on crime does to society. Watch a fellow liberal getting stabbed to death.

As if this is normal in a civilized country.

shadowtreeon Predictive policing software terrible at predicting crimes

No, but you're proving my point. Look at the stats behind the various closures of retail stores across the US to learn about the impact of "petty crime".

Here is an example of what small store owners have to endure: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY1L62dKnU8 "El Sobrante store clerk set on fire during confrontation with shoplifter"

The absolute ignorance and distaste towards retail workers and small shop owners in the ruling class in the US is shocking.

shadowtreeon Predictive policing software terrible at predicting crimes

No they didn't, as stated in the article.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Chicago

"Chicago has an estimated population of over 100,000 active gang members from nearly 60 factions. Gang warfare and retaliation is common in Chicago. Gangs were responsible for 61% of the homicides in Chicago in 2011."

Former Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy blames Chicago's gang culture for its high rates of homicide and other violent crime, stating "It's very frustrating to know that it's like 7% of the population causes 80% of the violent crime..."

Again, some data science mumbojumbo is preventing actual, logical solutions. El Salvador put gang members, in totality, in jail. Now it has the LOWEST homicide rate in Latin America - it had the HIGHEST before.

So yeah, the anti-carceration movement in the US has caused the deaths of more people, African-Americans in particular, than any terrorist organization.

shadowtreeon Predictive policing software terrible at predicting crimes

This is such an interesting topic, where the conclusions are so politically charged that no ones wants to risk their careers.

See this article in the NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/15/nyregion/shoplifting-arre...

"Nearly a third of all shoplifting arrests in New York City last year involved just 327 people, the police said. Collectively, they were arrested and rearrested more than 6,000 times, Police Commissioner Keechant Sewell said."

Can you predict crimes? Of course you can, the math is clear. The solution to reduce crime is also logical and clear, but politically unfeasible: extended incarceration.

All the handwringing about various side topics, like race, gender, class are just distractions. See El Salvador's murder rate drop this year too. WSJ, with handwringing: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-country-with-the-highest-mu...

Criminals commit crimes, a lot. Once you have identified a criminal, you can safely predict more crimes. No AI needed, a simple spreadsheet will suffice.

And here, another article for a balanced world view - Ireland: https://www.sundayworld.com/crime/irish-crime/decrease-in-le....

"A significant decrease in burglaries in most Leinster counties is being attributed by senior gardaí to the deaths of three prolific criminals as well as a number of arrest operations."

shadowtreeon YouTube blocks Russell Brand from making money through its platform

Huge opportunity for X to continue to become the safe haven for "cancelled" content. Tucker Carlson, etc.

shadowtreeon Cannabis use disorder and subsequent risk of depression and bipolar disorder

Why is it still banned in so many other countries?

All these children here with their US-centric view.

Bring some weed to Singapore, see what happens.

shadowtreeon Germany Will Force 80% of Gas Stations to Install EV Charging, Too

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-...

Gas and Service Stations have their own category as they are a significant target for crime. Unlocked vehicles, stores open at night, cash on site, etc.

Here is an advisory by the Florida Sherriff's on how to deal with gas stations: https://www.flsheriffs.org/uploads/docs/How_to_Prevent_Gas_S...

CCTV prevents no crime, it exists for insurance purposes.

But hey, TALK TO WOMEN, you will learn a lot. Safety/Risk is a totally different perception and issue across gender lines. Just like why humanity agreed on separating bathrooms in the first place.

shadowtreeon Germany Will Force 80% of Gas Stations to Install EV Charging, Too

A big factor for women buying EVs is that they DON'T have to go to gas stations anymore.

EV chargers belong in safe, bright areas as you sit in your car or somewhere else for 20-30 minutes. A gas station parking lot is not clean and safe, in Germany or elsewhere.

I can't believe McDonald's hasn't realized the huge potential here. They have the real estate, they have the safety and could get a ton of customers eating out of pure boredom.

shadowtreeon Zinc-air batteries as an alternative to lithium-ion: study

Nickel is not a scarce resource. It was used in coins for a long time.

All mining is harmful, that's kind of a given. Drilling too.

The modern world does not come out of thin air.

shadowtreeon Amazon Andy Jassy shouldn’t make RTO decisions in echo chamber of CEOs feelings

Absolutely and easily provable - go work at a company with the employee count of FAANG and zero managers. As all managers are useless, this company will EASILY outperform the stupid FAANGs.

Just like an army without officers, amazing stuff.

Seriously, what's going on here on HN? YC has managers ffs!

shadowtreeon Amazon Andy Jassy shouldn’t make RTO decisions in echo chamber of CEOs feelings

If you're contractor, this is the right mindset - I get paid for a unit of delivered work.

Employees get full-time salaries to be available, well, full time.

WFH makes people hard to reach - sorry, was out walking the dog, etc. - and all the other stuff that would never fly in an office.

Not disclosing your other side gigs is a violation of most work contracts btw.

shadowtreeon Amazon Andy Jassy shouldn’t make RTO decisions in echo chamber of CEOs feelings

All the bragging about working multiple jobs or just clocking 20hours at most on so many forums like Blind, etc. is now coming to roost.

So yeah, many abused WFH and now the backlash is here. Amazon, Google, Apple, Meta, Zoom, Bloomberg ... all have the same conclusion: you can't trust people, at scale, to work full time from home.

These stories were posted here too! You think no exec reads HN?

shadowtreeon Microsoft is bringing Python to Excel

XLOOKUP.

shadowtreeon Python in Excel

This is quite something. Runs Python off-client, sandboxed in the cloud. Definitely cuts down many steps of typical workflows, down to getting the result into a Powerpoint slide.

Why use Jupyter NBs in a corpo setting going forward?

shadowtreeon Judge rules in favor of Montana youths in landmark climate decision

China is a lost cause, as it is isolating itself.

India is not. Partnering with them on nuclear, incentives on transport and supply chain would pay off massively. Same is true for EU, which is all over the place - Finland builds reactors, the Germans go "green" by burning brown coal.

And then there are the hardcore solutions around SO2, which just got airtime due to the discovery of clean shipping and the massive backfire on ocean temps. Pump that thing into the atmosphere, buy time.

Also ban all private air travel.

shadowtreeon Google snippet claims no countries in Africa starting with K

When Chat GPT content attacks.

shadowtreeon Judge rules in favor of Montana youths in landmark climate decision

The climate is not about fairness, nature does not care.

We either agree on practical solutions at scale, or we don't.

Social justice is another topic.

shadowtreeon Managing difficult software engineers

Careful with advice from someone who never managed large teams, successfully. Look at the author's LI bio.

Content marketing is adding so much noise, muddying up the waters.

shadowtreeon Judge rules in favor of Montana youths in landmark climate decision

How is this relevant for policy decisions now? Build a time machine?

shadowtreeon Judge rules in favor of Montana youths in landmark climate decision

Montana has a population of 1.1 million people. Does not even make the size of a small Chinese city.

Nothing Montana does has a measurable effect on global climate change.

shadowtreeon Judge rules in favor of Montana youths in landmark climate decision

China in 2021 emitted 12,500 Mtons of CO2.

The US in 2021 emitted 4,700 Mtons of CO2.

The EU in 2021 emitted 2,700 Mtons of CO2.

China emitted nearly as much CO2 than the US and EU combined.

The US' CO2 output peaked in 2000, with 6000 Mtons, has been steadily declining ever since.

https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2022

shadowtreeon Judge rules in favor of Montana youths in landmark climate decision

From a logical perspective, Montana now needs to declare war on China and India. The US' CO2 emissions have been falling for a long time, now at levels of the 1950s.

Pritzker's nuclear ban also means Montana invading a fellow state.

shadowtreeon A surprisingly simple way to foil car thieves

Way better would be a system of sliding metal panels to cover the windows when parked. Most break ins here in SF just smash and grab your shit.

Give me a way to protect the inside of the car.

Plus the fact that neither SFPD nor Oakland deploy decoy cars to actually go after the thieves - what a total failure of basic policing this area is. Can I get a 10mil grant to propose that!?

shadowtreeon How Canva saves Amazon S3 costs

Utility is just an old term for "as a service".

Electricity as a Service, which includes payments for expert maintenance.

Thread is about AWS and merits of in-sourcing, which is not how the world operates.

Anyways.

shadowtreeon How Canva saves Amazon S3 costs

Work for a 30bn market cap company, all our stuff is built on AWS. Offices all around the globe. Not a single electrician on payroll.

YMMV.

shadowtreeon How Canva saves Amazon S3 costs

Most businesses treat cloud like a utility, not tech. Don't want to generate their own power, deal with sewage ... and compute.

Which in 99.9% of the cases is the right decision. Sorry for all you infra techies, but that's the way tech matures.

shadowtreeon Nvidia is now a $1T company

It's MANGA - Meta, Amazon, Nvidia, Google, Apple ;)

shadowtreeon Baltimore sues Hyundai, Kia over spike in car thefts

The US saw an overall 25% drop in imprisonment since 2010, mainly through Covid policies.

California has 39mil inhabitants, currently has 97k in prison.

Germany has 83mil inhabitants, currently 56k in prison.

shadowtreeon When you lose the ability to write, you also lose some of your ability to think

Just for one persona.

Good old Peter Drucker formalized the personas in his advice to new employees to figure out how their bosses consumed information:

1 - The lawyer. Needs walls of text.

2 - The architect. Needs diagrams, visuals.

3 - The accountant. Needs numbers, spreadsheets.

4 - The actor. Needs a conversation, verbal.

It's a generalization, of course, but I have applied this pattern successfully. The core bit is that using the wrong method with any of the 4 personas flat out does not work.

Send a long article to an accountant and they're stumped. But send them a bunch of numbers and they hear the numbers sing. Etc.

Tangent on the Amazon way of write ups - Bezos forced his persona on the whole company. I would hste it. I am an architect, a few diagrams is all I need.

shadowtreeon Wikipedia user edits over 90k uses of “comprised of”

Mental health is a spectrum, it is good this specific persona found an outlet that causes zero harm to himself or others.

Profile of him: https://medium.com/backchannel/meet-the-ultimate-wikignome-1...

Interesting comments around social on this specific persona - the literal grammar nazi.