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shadowtree

2,238 karma · joined August 15, 2017

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shadowtree··on Significant breakthrough in search for Parkinson's biomarker
Interesting that big flu outbreaks cause a long term spike in Parkinson's - how much more will be traced back to the impact of viruses?

Saw that come up as a worry around Covid, seems the loss of smell/taste is a commonality with Parkison. We will not know for a decade or two though, but these biomarkers might help accelerate measuring the impact.

shadowtree··on Sold a Story: How Teaching Kids to Read Went So Wrong
China has a 99.7% youth literacy rate - isn't that enough proof in regards to which method works best?
shadowtree··on We're building a browser when it's supposed to be impossible
Wouldn't this be a perfect task for an LLM? Ingest all relevant web specs (HTML, CSS, JS, ...) and pick a language - start prompting for components.

Really wonder where the event horizon for really functional programming is.

shadowtree··on ‘Hot Ones’ Was a Slow Burn All Along
Just shows how BAD conventional journalism has gotten.

If you watch old clips of Dick Cavett it is unbelievable how the audience back then was treated as adults.

And old school vibe of actually caring is also the "shtick" of Kevin McCarthy who has amazing interviews. Here a little bit of him discussing 35mm film with Brad Pitt: https://twitter.com/KevinMcCarthyTV/status/16389734357903892...

Rogan took this on as well, the bar of letting people talk for hours is so low now that all these podcasts were able to wipe out traditional TV.

Dick Cavett vs. Lex Friedman, the regression in interview style is horrible.

Cavett with Richard Burton, nearly 2 hours (!) of in depth, well executed talk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D49O5obqhiA

shadowtree··on Apple Music Classical
This is great - it being a separate app solves some core problems!

It's a hard firewall between my "normal" music library and classical, which means risk free shuffle play. I never want Bach and Slayer in sequence.

They can optimize the UI, recommendations, etc. based on music that is all about reproduction, rather than being performed by the original artists.

Going against the grain and honing in on a total niche is so awesome and hopefully a sign of things to come.

I enjoy this split with movies too, the Criterion Apple TV app is such a nice break from the noisy HBO Max, etc. stuff.

And yes, I agree, Jazz would be an obvious next niche to target with a dedicated app!

shadowtree··on South Korea has the lowest fertility rate, with lessons for us all
Kim would not have been literate and utterly dependent on marriage to survive not that long ago. Now she is a web designer and has choices .. in dating, housing, etc.

Complaints are not desperation.

From 1960 to 2021 the population of South Korea increased from 25 million to 52 million people ... 107% in 61 years!

Over 80% percent of Koreans live in larger cities now, just mind-boggling urbanization.

shadowtree··on South Korea has the lowest fertility rate, with lessons for us all
It's a sign of wealth and abundance if fertility rates are falling. See Africa and it's still very high rates and every single historic trend line as evidence.

Strongest causation factors are urbanization and female education/employment.

East Asia urbanized faster then the US, also has little to no immigration ... hence populations will shrink quite drastically. China will halve in what, the next 5 decades?

shadowtree··on How did Google go so wrong so quickly?
It is an analogous development to a caste society, where merit/performance really don't matter.

Don't think it is an accident that it happened to Google.

Makes Satya look so much better, for now.

Cultural background matters a ton, even if it is very frowned upon to mention it nowadays (unless it is about Germans, Italians, etc.).

shadowtree··on Valve bans 40k Dota 2 accounts using honeypot patch
If only Battlefield did the same. Or force hard regional blocks between servers, blanket ban China. Release Cheaterfield for them, different kind of entertainment definition in that market.
shadowtree··on Google stopping coding competitions
The Elves are leaving Middle-Earth.
shadowtree··on Does Google need a new CEO?
He is an operator, not an innovator. Just shows how much of an outlier Nadella really is.
shadowtree··on Why big tech companies need so many people
You are literally re-describing what I posted. Apple, MSFT, etc. out-scale you an all fronts - legal, go-to-market, marketing, bundling, pricing,... Their scale is their moat. More lawyers than you have coders, and that's that.
shadowtree··on Why big tech companies need so many people
Because bigger teams can accomplish bigger things.

HN has this understandable infatuation with startup mode, but running a truly global product line of anything with a large customer base is simply a lot of work.

Apple can't be run with 5 people, it also cannot be attacked by a 5 people startup. Same for Microsoft, AWS, ... broad massively multi-product companies are very hard to take on if they have their general shit together. Ask Slack how it went against MSFT Teams, a clearly INFERIOR product. Microsoft out-scaled Slack, simple as that.

Sustained innovation of a big company is a formidable moat against disruption. Look at big pharma, these companies have been around for 120+ years! Merck was founded in 1891 (from a root company founded in 1668!) and is still a 50bn revenue behemoth. And yes, modern biopharma is big tech.

shadowtree··on ChatGPT and the Enshittening of Knowledge
It's called garbage collection for a reason. ;)
shadowtree··on Spotify reducing employee base by about 6%
Pretty sure the DRM process in YouTube is heavily automated - why wouldn't Spotify do the same? Give the labels an API, then they can dynamically maintain all that crap themselves.
shadowtree··on The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector
Pretty sure worker health has improved - so this is OSHA making sure you have proper safety procedures, staffing, gear ... which all makes slapping together the Empire State Building in a little over a year now impossible.

Which is a good thing!

Watching the videos touring China skyscraper build quality makes you appreciate building codes in the West as well.

shadowtree··on Spotify reducing employee base by about 6%
If you compete with startups with tens of employees - shouldn't you use tens of employees to counter their strategies too?

Do you need endless hanger ons in HR, PR, all kinds of non-producing departments?

Crappy CEOs, which is not the same as a crappy founder, have grown companies without any sense and purpose. Daniel is a great founder and rode great luck. But, he should have been replaced with a Eric Schmidt operator figure a while ago.

I think the founder clings to company forever is coming to an end, in most cases going public should mean a new CEO.

shadowtree··on Fentanyl vaccine tested in rats
Pray you then never get cancer or other nasty shit that requires proper painkillers.
shadowtree··on Spotify reducing employee base by about 6%
The core question is how many employees do you need run a stable internet business?

Stable means no massive new product lines, growth, etc.

Spotify is what it is. An app across a handful platforms, streaming infrastructure, and a legal/purchasing dept for music rights.

Does this need 7000 people? Zero chance. Is it 1000? 700? 250? No ones knows yet, but everyone remembers WhatsApp at acquisition and watches Twitter to kind of continue without 80% of its former employee base.

shadowtree··on Musk’s inner circle worked through weekend to cement Twitter layoff plans
You can get an insight into their thinking in their weekly podcast called "All-In", together with Chamath Palihapitiya and David Friedberg.

Link: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-ja... Also on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCESLZhusAkFfsNsApnjF_Cg

Supposedly has a couple million listeners.

Sacks and Calacanis were named in the lawsuit between Twitter and Musk.

And it is very clear that none of them have any real tech insight, but a lot of VC / raccoon mindset.

shadowtree··on How to maintain engineering velocity as you scale
When we started in 2009, we did 3 major releases a year (enterprise software, deep vertical SaaS).

We now do monthly releases into production, with 80+% marketshare and 500mil rev just in my product line.

Scaling is hard, but doable. Takes a lot of willpower and fighting against gravity.

shadowtree··on Private Prisons Are Behind the Push for Homeless Criminalization
Homeless people in US, in particular in cities like SF, are a perfect tool to raise money. SF's budget of >1bn USD means a ton of grift.

NGOs of all sorts descend on this money pile, with zero incentive to actually reduce homelessness - if they did, the money tap would dry up.

It is a self-reinforcing loop until the actual government steps in and resolves the matter. Very "unpopular" in this weirdly lefties/libertarian society.

shadowtree··on Using Notion as a headless CMS for our blog
You have raised 340 million dollars. Huge expectation to grow and make money, which means numbers will become more important. "free" stuff will go away, it always does.

Investors will want an exit event, sooner than later. IPO (unlikely in next 2 years, macro issues) or flipping it to ... someone.

Just the normal cycle, nothing Notion-specific.

shadowtree··on ClickHouse Cloud is now in Public Beta
Columnar DBs have been around since 1969, predate relational DBs. Seriously, if you're not into large scale data, it really isn't for you.
shadowtree··on A16Z Substantially Invests in New Adam Neumann Real Estate Startup
Some post-pandemic real estate arbitrage play? pmarca trying to one-up Masa?
shadowtree··on Tech layoffs keep stacking up
Well, there is this: https://layoffs.fyi/

and many other offshoots.

shadowtree··on I fucking hate Jira
The people hating on JIRA never worked in a shop without it.

If you're old enough to remember before Atlassian came along - just how was it better? Spreadsheets? Trax?

You don't want structured workflow? Don't work in a company with more than 5 people.

"I am an accountant and hate ERP" .. tough shit, for real.

shadowtree··on Shortsightedness has become an epidemic
You're getting far-sighted as you're getting older.
shadowtree··on We're moving to a four-day work week at Beacon
This is escalating like the Gilette wars (3 blades, 4 blades...12 blades).

Soon you'll only stand out by announcing the 3 day work week.

...and get killed by a team that just outworks you. How many pro-sports teams have switched to less and less training :)

I do hope all our competitors switch to 0 day workweeks...

shadowtree··on OnlyFans creator stalked and had sex with Meta employees to reinstate Instagram
dang taking note ;)

/pleasedontbanme

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