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shmatt

3,785 karma · joined August 27, 2014

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shmatt··on Jan Leike Resigns from OpenAI
Realistically its all just probabilistic word generation. People "feel" like an LLM understands them but it doesn't, its just guessing the next token. You could say all our brains are doing are just guessing the next token but thats a little too deep for this morning

All these companies are doing now is taking an existing inferencing engine, making it 3% faster, 3% more accurate, etc. per quarter, fighting over the $20/month users

One can imagine product is now taking the wheel from engineering and are building ideas on how to monetize the existing engine. Thats essentially what GPT-4o is, and who knows what else is in the 1,2,3 year roadmaps for any of these $20 companies

To reach true AGI we need to get past guessing, and that doesn't seem close at all. Even if one of these companies gets better at making you "feel" like its understanding and not guessing, if it isnt actually happening, its not a breakthrough

Now with product leading the way, its really interesting to see where these engineers head

shmatt··on Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI
Funny enough people will still call OpenAI “an engineering led company” when very obviously it’s slowly being taken over by the same MBAs as Google
shmatt··on An analysis of the Rabbit R1 APK
As someone whose job is to inference on the edge. No one is getting a mass product consistently inferencing on the edge for $199 not today and not next year (and I’d bet not in 2026)

Your impression was spot on

shmatt··on An analysis of the Rabbit R1 APK
In the same way the Apple Watch doesn’t do anything better than an iPhone

Wearables are not supposed to be an app or beat the iPhones processor. They’re supposed to be small and always on

Would you wear an iPhone pro max on your lapel?

shmatt··on Google workers fired for protesting Israeli contract file NLRB complaint
Imagine if all these protesters did was to sign a letter. We could only wish, and get on with our jobs
shmatt··on Google workers fired for protesting Israeli contract file NLRB complaint
They and We are doing some extra leg work here

They were fired for blocking a senior executives private office.

Do that in the name of US, china, russia, sesame street, and you're getting fired.

shmatt··on The Rabbit R1 is probably running Android and is powered by an Android app
I can't think of a single hyped up pre-order that worked out. Either

* Everyone else can buy it when the pre orders are delivered

* Due to monetary constraints, regular orders are actually shipped before pre-orders

* The device is nothing like it was promised

* The device doesn't exist

The intentions are good (funding without VCs) but I rather the VCs lose money than consumers

shmatt··on Reddit is full of bots: thread reposted comment by comment, 10 months later
Im long on RDDT because it reminds me so much of Facebook when they started pushing more negative content because it got higher interaction. When a sad face reaction was "worth" 5x more than a Like to the algorithm

The algorithm now suggests posts, popular ones with lots of fighting in the comments, from subs you dont subscribe to. Essentially causing organic brigading which is against Reddit rules

shmatt··on ByteDance prefers TikTok shutdown in US if legal options fail, sources say
Reply All did a pretty good episode about it. It’s just really good at pushing the exact content you will interact with, 1000x better than anything Meta owns

https://gimletmedia.com/amp/shows/reply-all/z3h78d6

shmatt··on ByteDance prefers TikTok shutdown in US if legal options fail, sources say
Who even knows what the buyers are buying? The major investor groups that have shown interest so far didn’t seem that savvy. TikTok would sell the user base and basic functionality, but no way they will sell the magic algorithm that no other company STILL has yet to replicate

It would be on the buyer to prove / challenge it’s not the same algorithm and that would be almost impossible to prove

Who knows what TikTok is even worth without its highly addictive engine behind it

shmatt··on Nvidia to Acquire Run:AI
I haven't researched deeply but there are plenty of Israeli startup exits with executives coming from combat, non tech units. Usually elite combat units that are harder to get in to.

There is something to be said about spending 18-21 in the military, there is pretty much 0 partying during college (that is done during military vacations + the gap year between military and college). By the time you've finished your Bachelors degree you're 25-26 and ready to settle down. You hit your full time job life 6-8 years after high school. Its a very different mindset

I look at the 22 year olds moving to NYC after college for their first job, and there is such a huge difference in what they're looking for in their day to day lives. Their job is probably the last thing they are about

shmatt··on Nvidia to Acquire Run:AI
There is also a work culture of both putting in as many hours as necessary, but also very goal oriented and understanding whats critical to deliver and what sint

There are obviously many more countries that make the average American or European tech worker seem lazy, but for some of them working a 60-80 hour week is about showing you're working rather than doing important work

From my experience its not strictly the hours put in per week driving Israeli startups, but actually delivering what customers are asking for. I've been in many calls where the executives promised a complex feature that hasn't even been planned yet be delivered very soon, and somehow the team is able to complete it with careful planning and prioritizing (and putting in the hours)

The executives dont shy away from the grind either, im now on the other side (US corporate) and Israeli startup CEO/CTOs are basically available for every concern I have 24/7, even when I dont expect them to answer they do

shmatt··on Why I'm Leaving New York City [video]
These takes are always comical to me, because I really wish they would put some downward pressure on rents

While rents in SF crash, rents in NYC seem to reach a new ATH every month. The newest addition is how popular bidding wars have become. If all it used to take a few years ago was being the first person with good credit to apply, now you’re expected to give your “best and last” rent offer, maybe offer the broker some extra cash as well

So, yeah, there are YouTube videos about crossing the street with your kid because a shirtless man was yelling, and then there is reality of other families outbidding each other. There’s obviously more than enough people to fill all the available apartments, so I don’t see the reason it matters if one person leaves, there are 5 people bidding on paying more for their same apartment

New York City’s Vacancy Rate Reaches Historic Low of 1.4 Percent

https://www.nyc.gov/site/hpd/news/007-24/new-york-city-s-vac...

shmatt··on Amazon HQ2 was supposed to add jobs last year. It shed them instead
It was even dumber than that. AOC is a federal representative that gave her personal opinion. She has no say on local laws, she can oppose 100% of the laws Mayor Adams and Governor Hochul sign, it doesn't mean they get cancelled, it just means she has a right to her opinion.

The local board that rejected Amazon had a separate set of members that decided to vote however they voted. They are also up for election completely independently, so they would have paid the price if locals disagreed with them (maybe they did, I didnt check)

shmatt··on H-1B visa fraud alive and well amid anti-abuse efforts
The unfortunate answer is: love them or hate them, people can't pass the leetcode interviews

I've worked as a hiring manager in multiple companies, and recommending or not recommending a hire is done without any knowledge of their status, but solely on the 45 minute interview I did. If they need some sponsorship thats done without communicating to me, I just say yes/no. And with that, somehow most of the Yes's need sponsorship, so what else can you do from an interviewing perspective

shmatt··on H-1B visa fraud alive and well amid anti-abuse efforts
Giving your place of work fake IDs and passports is already illegal. How would your representatives fix this? Fingerprinting every day in the lobby?
shmatt··on BYD is launching its next-gen Blade EV battery – more range and even lower cost
That 5000 euro car is going to need a lot more maintenance than a used electric car
shmatt··on Amazon's "Just Walk Out" checkout turns out to be 1000 workers watching you shop
These types of systems take a week to train the obvious clean use case, and a decade to be able to perform with people intentionally or unintentionally messing with the system

Just don’t act surprised when we “find out” the dash carts are also powered by humans

shmatt··on 'Lavender': The AI machine directing Israel's bombing in Gaza
Gitmo is still open, if the US isnt participating in those laws, I don't see how any of its allies are expected to
shmatt··on 'Lavender': The AI machine directing Israel's bombing in Gaza
Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, and Norway were heavily involved in the war on terror. Bombing Afghanistan but also arresting "suspected" people of their own
shmatt··on 'Lavender': The AI machine directing Israel's bombing in Gaza
War zones aren't as quiet and organized as you would imagine. More so when one side is disguised as regular civilians. All war zones also have people killed by friendly fire. I would assume friendly fire > killing western charity workers > killing civilians in order of importance to the military

Yet still, even that its the most important, friendly fire still happens

shmatt··on 'Lavender': The AI machine directing Israel's bombing in Gaza
How do you think people are chosen to visit a secret CIA prison, or chosen to get a 12 hour interrogation every time they enter the US?
shmatt··on 'Lavender': The AI machine directing Israel's bombing in Gaza
I suggest everyone listen to the current season of the Serial podcast.

>processing masses of data to rapidly identify potential “junior” operatives to target. Four of the sources said that, at one stage early in the war, Lavender listed as many as 37,000 Palestinian men who had been linked by the AI system to Hamas or PIJ.

This is really no different than how the world was working in 2001 and choosing who to send to Gitmo and other more secretive prisons, or bombing their location

More than anything else it feels like just like in the corporate world, the engineers in the army are overselling the AI buzzword to do exactly what they were doing before it existed

If you use your paypal account to send money to an account identified as ISIS, you're going to get a visit from a 3 letter organization really quick. This sounds exactly like that from what the users are testifying to. Any decision to bomb or not bomb a location wasn't up to the AI, but to humans

shmatt··on No joke: FTC boss goes on the Daily Show and is told Apple tried to block her
I mean, does the employee have any power over that room? Sounds like a classic instance for security to kick them out
shmatt··on No joke: FTC boss goes on the Daily Show and is told Apple tried to block her
I don't know if it can be called "En Masse" if they STILL have more employees today than during the 0% interest rate years
shmatt··on No joke: FTC boss goes on the Daily Show and is told Apple tried to block her
Is there any doubt in the world that his current employer - the Redstone family, also have limits on what can be discussed and how on their channels?
shmatt··on Amazon ditches 'just walk out' checkouts at its grocery stores
There is usually a mention of "humans in the loop" when articles discussed Amazon Go[1]. Amazon just always refused to give actual numbers. The best "give" that humans were watching you was that Amazon Go receipts often arrived in your email many hours after you left.

Anyone who works in computer vision immediately knew this wasn't possible beyond a cool proof of concept in a tiny room with <300 SKUs. Even in 2024

[1] https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/21/inside-amazons-surveillanc...

shmatt··on Amazon ditches 'just walk out' checkouts at its grocery stores
i've written about this multiple times on HN and always got downvoted

I work in the CV industry and this was a very badly kept secret. There is absolutely no financially feasible way to run something like this with current CV

shmatt··on MTA board votes to approve new $15 toll to drive into Manhattan
If you're driving into Midtown you're already out $50 a day on parking, with no legal limits on the amount they're allowed to raise the prices

99% of the street parking is commercial only in the toll zone during office hours

If anything this will force parking lot owners to lower prices as less people drive in

shmatt··on MTA board votes to approve new $15 toll to drive into Manhattan
you mean finding out the price 45 minutes after you left the house?
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