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sigwinch

341 karma · joined April 7, 2025

pay.provolone865@passmail.com
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sigwinch··on Owner of ICE detention facility sees big opportunity in AI man camps
Could be that the temporary housing for construction workers transitions into detainment. Having an AI data canter close to a detainment facility streamlines security. Will the whole facility run on diesel and StarLink? Independent of the surrounding community and conveniently-failure-prone power and Internet?
sigwinch··on The Future We Feared Is Here
Feels very accelerationist. Whomever is advising Hegseth properly identified risks to funding as a soft underbelly. By using it for target acquisition, even against the contractual terms, Claude is now a munition. OpenAI by extension.

So, the obvious path to nationalizing Anthropic would be DPA. Instead, Hegseth's group chose to try weakening it, especially among its close competition. So what I smell is an attempt to extract its core and Musk it into Grok.

Anthropic might be quite strong in court. Putting the best reasoning model into CPU-ring-0 survival mode was not on my 2026 bingo card.

sigwinch··on US asked Ukraine for help fighting Iranian drones, Zelensky says
Less, actually. Lockheed Martin made 620 MSE last year.
sigwinch··on Nuclear War: An LLM Scenario
You could make it a little more convincing:

1. An uncertain Pacific launch seemed like a weak point. Instead, an arctic launch. Because volcanology studies things like CO2, maybe we fired the climate scientists who could tell whether a thermal bloom in the arctic could be volcanic instead of missile.

2. Make the President more contemporary. Have his phone full of spyware. Have him continually screen calls from his kids, influencers, and other seekers of patronage. Have him dodge the hovering sycophants and pardon-seeking lawyers. Demonstrate what he’s actually doing instead of preparing for the hardest part of the job.

3. Acknowledge that we have limited interceptors and that perfectly deploying them means that the first and last missiles get through.

sigwinch··on Nuclear War: An LLM Scenario
My experience is that wargaming has a decent track record. In hindsight, Nimitz looks much more prepared than MacArthur, even if their early careers suggest the opposite.
sigwinch··on What if the Hormuz closure will not be brief?
It was a convenient misunderstanding about a call to the Palm Beach Sheriff. The FBI has a recording of the call, but probably ambiently from the Sheriff’s side. It’s a small ray of innocence for a guy like Trump. And he forgot all about it until by luck it was in the Epstein files.
sigwinch··on China's Agentic AI Controversy
I think a better treatment of the development heritage of Chinese superapps:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46916021

sigwinch··on The Future We Feared Is Here
It was inevitable for the mainstream media to connect Musk with the pressure campaign on Anthropic. Among people who use the English language professionally, the sloppy redefinition of “woke” raised a lot of red flags. It was never sharp, just a dull thought-ending judgment, always insanely rejecting Trump superiority. Is it clear enough to kill a corporation? If corporations are people (in the US, the Supreme Court has given them people rights), is this the right way to administer exile or even the death penalty? The mainstream media seems to wonder now, do we talk about that or will Elon Musk control Anthropic’s assets six months from now?
sigwinch··on Uploading Pirated Books via BitTorrent Qualifies as Fair Use, Meta Argues
ICE played an important role in those cases with long supply chains. Seems quaint now, but I think we should acknowledge any criminal who does not participate in a child abuse ring. Those counterfeit DVDs were not illegal content, just illegal storefronts. If today’s ICE or FBI uncovered such a ring, who would they call first?
sigwinch··on Workers who love ‘synergizing paradigms’ might be bad at their jobs
If you like ribbonfarm, the comment section in his follow up is worth reading:

https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2009/12/13/random-promotions-and-...

I wouldn’t be surprised if research like Cornell’s was inspired there.

sigwinch··on Workers who love ‘synergizing paradigms’ might be bad at their jobs
> mortified to show off a $10,000 watch, but excitedly tell you about their $100,000 kitchen remodel filled with 100-mile diet cookbooks and single-origin Japanese knives, or their 6-month work sabbatical they spent powerlifting. This is a group of people where a Subaru is a higher-status car than a Cadillac, but the highest status car is none.

Very Boulder, CO

sigwinch··on Anthropic vows to sue Pentagon over risk designation
Oh, the staffers representing the government in court will blithely use Claude for a few days before they realize why they shouldn’t.
sigwinch··on Trump fires Homeland Security Secretary Noem after criticism
I don’t see evidence for that. She expressed ambition to run for President. That threatened the secretive succession plan around Trump.
sigwinch··on Noem Can't Explain Why She Hired 8-Day-Old Company for Ad Campaign
My understanding is that Trump in early 2025 pushed all procurement toward GSA. For Noem to demand spending authority seemed prone to self-dealing.
sigwinch··on Timeline: Anthropic, OpenAI, and U.S. Government
Secondary title was attempted by an executive order. It demands recognition, but the law hasn’t caught up.
sigwinch··on Dario Amodei calls OpenAI’s messaging around military deal ‘straight up lies’
I think this is supported. Hegseth has said numerous things about curly hair. I read that his reaction to Dario started with his hair.
sigwinch··on Dario Amodei calls OpenAI’s messaging around military deal ‘straight up lies’
We must conclude that they’re wary of Grok. Maybe it’s the incentive for bias and sabotage.
sigwinch··on I Hired a Lab to Counterfeit-Test a Dozen Suspicious Beauty Products
We’re going to have to put more confidence into testing like this and Consumer Reports.

For example, what if a product is contaminated with glyphosate? One-time supporters of RFK Jr would expect a recall, but I wouldn’t bet on today’s RFK Jr.

sigwinch··on NATO shot down an Iranian missile over Turkey, said nothing about Article 5
Really sounds like Article 4 instead. If the characteristics last September didn’t reach Article 5 then this would need a different formula…

Back in September, the incursion was a Russian probe for an attack in Eastern Europe. It was to Trump’s advantage to downplay it. But this missile is a pretext for responding to Iranian aggression. He’s thirsty for some useful pretext right now, and at the very least would like to send the bill for military action to Europe.

sigwinch··on James K. Polk and the 5,106 Votes That Changed America
The Whig party was our experiment with partisan coalitions. And we got to see what breaks up a party, and what a party can survive.

It’d be fascinating to present modern Americans with their options during the Second Party System, renamed. The Democratic Party is of course unrecognizable.

sigwinch··on The dry and the wet burn together: On the war against Iran
It’s been “not a war” for so long, and we don’t have a good word for it. “Grey zone”, “hybrid war”, in Zoroastrian terms these are druj-heavy. Trump himself chooses druj.

But the force of good benefits from not using the word “war”. Trump himself gains war powers if Congress uses the word. Those powers will be turned inward.

And Hegseth has dabbled in duality himself. What started as a Department of Defense became a Department of War. If you study what the Japanese military thought of Pearl Harbor —- Hegseth is using that strategy. Hegseth is constrained in that he can only choose strategies Obama would reject. And soon he’ll need to explain that it was really about defense all along.

sigwinch··on MrBeast Is Getting into Financial Services. Parents Should Pay Attention
Gift link:

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/business/mrbeast-step-ban...

sigwinch··on I am directing the Department of War to designate Anthropic a supply-chain risk
The announcement hasn't worked through official legal channels, but Anthropic is taking it seriously. The official channel will be a written explanation to Congress, and could be classified.

Hegseth objected to guardrails being "woke". Something about "curly haired" almost-men telling him how he can use his "war fighters".

I speculate that Trump and Hegseth were both late to the realization that AI could unwind, for example, the next Panama Papers, and are doing this to try to demonstrate power to the industry. Musk tried to explain all this, but they actually encountered him as "autistic". This all looks like a disjointed conversation because we can see slightly more of the future than them.

sigwinch··on I am directing the Department of War to designate Anthropic a supply-chain risk
lol, Wozniak and Jobs' first product was a blue box. I guess you had to be there.
sigwinch··on I am directing the Department of War to designate Anthropic a supply-chain risk
I don't get the downvotes or replies. The answer has nothing to do with ethics. AI is the only thing propping up Trump's stock market.
sigwinch··on I am directing the Department of War to designate Anthropic a supply-chain risk
Or, Hegseth revved up an internal govt model and found it just as woke as Anthropic.
sigwinch··on Former U.S. Air Force Pilot Arrested for Providing Services to Chinese Military
See also Marc Grune, a German fighter pilot who worked with Su Bin in the same way.
sigwinch··on U.S. Races to Accomplish Iran Mission Before Munitions Run Out
The 12 days back in June depleted half of Iran’s stockpile and a quarter of the US interceptor global stockpile.
sigwinch··on U.S. science agency moves to restrict foreign scientists from its labs
Or, as the Canadian press wonders, right now, today and continuously, how can we tell if he’s lost his mind?
sigwinch··on U.S. science agency moves to restrict foreign scientists from its labs
The Kavanaugh rule specifically permits it. If you’re taking odds that this Supreme Court will challenge the Kavanaugh rule, I’ll wager 1:1 against.
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