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spectrum1234

358 karma · joined March 10, 2015

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spectrum1234··on Show HN: In a single HTML file, an app to encourage my children to invest
Economics was optional in high school. It was also extremely basic. It was quite basic in college and also never covered this.
spectrum1234··on Why diets backfire: A year after weight loss, the desire to eat grows (2018)
Fasting should help keep the weight down. It takes your liver 2 weeks to adjust. This has helped me to stay less hungry.
spectrum1234··on Ask HN: Are the 2020s the decade of peak homogenisation?
It's both actually.

To clarify, while there is more "good" TV now, through a mainstream view of any platform it really does all look like the same damn crap all over the place.

spectrum1234··on Ask HN: What talent do you wish you had?
Being good at golf.
spectrum1234··on Dollar Tree says US$1.25 price point to become new standard
Sure, but they are probably raising prices because their wholesale costs have increased. The didn't just get the idea to raise prices for no reason.
spectrum1234··on Used car market gets even more bizarre
Hertz
spectrum1234··on Slow Teslas everywhere: 24 hours into ‘the FSD button’
This must be what they will be doing once they are farther along with the Dojo supercomputer. 100%
spectrum1234··on Elon Musk admits Tesla car quality flaws, says mass production is “hell”
Except that there most commonly sold car is half that, plus maybe $500. Then if you factor in cost of ownership, which its crazy not too, subtract another $5000 or so.
spectrum1234··on Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap
This is an extremely difficult prediction to make.
spectrum1234··on Popular seafood species in sharp decline around the world
"I sure wish a tech billionaire would do something about this. Their inaction on countless fronts, in fact their complacency in undermining progress on environmental causes in global politics, is one of the thousand reasons I got out of tech."

- Which industries (and organizations) are you still in at this point?

spectrum1234··on Q2 2020 Update
No, their edge is their factories (manufacturing innovation). This is the real product. The cars don't really matter. Seriously.
spectrum1234··on Q2 2020 Update
To get their market cap you need to factor in solar, batteries, and self driving cars. Just FYI I think you are missing these.
spectrum1234··on Why companies struggle with recalcitrant IT
Yes paywall but please support The Economist. They are one of the few great news sources left.
spectrum1234··on Germany will require all petrol stations to provide electric car charging
As an American with an EV this seems out of touch. I've lived downtown and in suburbs and gas stations have never been nearby.

Street parking needs EV charging and gas stations maybe need fast charging but not normal level 2 charging.

spectrum1234··on Tesla adds bidirectional charging capability
This is going to make electric cars extremely cheap once the million mile battery is out. Probably at least 50% cheaper given the money you can make selling off peak electricity at peak prices.

Electricity costs by me since I switched to time of use are 4x as much on peak vs off. My Tesla costs about $6 for a full charge off peak. It seems like its easy to make (4-1)* 6 = $18 a day off of this the car as it home. Let's say $10 after conversion loss and battery wear, etc.

Once you buy any other hardware needed (I think they are $2k-4k now), this seems like free money. Worst case, car is home during peak 2 days a week and $10/day gain, $4k system: 2.5 year payback period and then $223/month income Best case, car is home during peak 5 days a week and $15/day gain $2k system: 26 week payback period and then $322/month income.

The best case over 10 years is worth $38,700.

However the biggest opportunity here is probably for Tesla to lease the battery to consumers. The car will be discounted significantly if you can plug in 3 days a week near peak usage.

spectrum1234··on Federal Reserve pledges asset purchases with no limit to support markets
Why don't companies with lots of assets like airlines sell them? Companies without assets need some help, not airlines.
spectrum1234··on Tesla teardown finds electronics 6 years ahead of Toyota and VW
I just checked my garage. It looks fine. Which one of us is lying?
spectrum1234··on James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'
You are exactly right
spectrum1234··on Palindrome Day 20200202
Today was my wife's due date. The baby came 10 days early though. It's been a great experience!
spectrum1234··on The Boring Company’s Las Vegas tunnel is nearly 50% done
This is completely wrong. The biggest costs to tunnels is bureaucracy.

Simply using private funds without numerous contractors can decreases costs by an order of magnitude with no technological improvements.

spectrum1234··on Ask HN: What were your most impactful podcast episodes from 2019?
This guy is such an intelligent speaker. The podcast is excellent.
spectrum1234··on New York is proposing the creation of a 'public Venmo'
Yes but have you seen the costs of infrastructure in the US?

Big business is bad but big government is bad too.

spectrum1234··on Evaluating State and Local Business Tax Incentives [pdf]
Because of competition. Your competitor who lowered prices by 1% would eventually drive you out of business.

There is a lagging effect, but these taxes are just a reduction in cost which eventually get passed to consumers. Assuming the market is competitive of course.

spectrum1234··on Bilibili, YouTube of China, will be available on all Tesla cars from Q1
They have to be in park. At least in the US thats how mine is.
spectrum1234··on Luxury hotel guests keep stealing mattresses
There is a Nathan for You episode of this that is quite brilliant.
spectrum1234··on Tesla Pushes Back Cheapest Cybertruck Production Date
Its more complicated than this because certainly their gross margin in $ is higher on the tri motor. However this adds complexity.

So, what you say is probably true but it has to be worth it given the extra complexity as well.

spectrum1234··on Tesla Pushes Back Cheapest Cybertruck Production Date
I bet 1 year after Tesla has Model Ys coming out of Giga Berlin Tesla's prices will really start to drop for base models. At this point they will finally not be so supply constrained.
spectrum1234··on Elon Musk wins 'pedo guy' defamation case
Haha. I made an app to track comments to upvote ratio. Its usual a better interesting story indicator than anything else.
spectrum1234··on Battery Pack Prices Fall As Market Ramps Up
This logic is flawed because not all environmental issues are the same priority.

If you believe climate change is the biggest environmental issue, batteries could be significantly "dirtier" overall than alternatives as long as they contribute less to C02.

spectrum1234··on Federal safety agency launches probe of Tesla battery fires
The deposit used to be $1k because they were short on cash. Now they are not.

What is better than cash if you don't need it? An accurate predictor of demand. This is likely what the small $100 deposit is for.

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