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sseveran

1,077 karma · joined April 17, 2012

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sseveran··on At Tech’s Leading Edge, Worry About a Concentration of Power
If you are talking about the R&D tax credits there is nothing that says you have to have a PhD. We get a bunch of these every year and we only have one person with a PhD that is part of the research.
sseveran··on What Really Brought Down the Boeing 737 Max?
It might make everyone feel better if he was fired, but little else. He became CEO one month before the first fuselage was completed and six months before the first flight, having been in charge of the defense unit. Perhaps a better but less satisfying target would be Ray Conner (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raymond_Conner) who was head of commercial aviation from 2012 to 2016, or perhaps Jim Albaugh, his predecessor. Crucial engineering decisions would have been made during these years.
sseveran··on WeWork’s Back Is Against a Wall
I am not sure the product is really any better. There are a bunch of cute little old things around the printer, they have cool signs and I don't mind the fruit water. There are some other goods things like being able to build a virtual network of devices and things like that, which would be much more problematic without a single provider.

But I would settle for wifi that always works (been working on this in our own little corner of WeWork for a couple of weeks) and coffee that was ready before 9. It would be great if we could just scan our badge at the printer.

I feel like they provide insufficient attention to the basics and really focus on what they think provides differentiation. Maybe in a year I will think differently but if I had to pick a different office space today I don't think I would be any more likely to rent a WeWork given their brand.

sseveran··on IRS budget cuts cost $34.3B in lost revenue from big business
One of the reasons (among many) is the expense treatment of stock based compensation was changed I believe as part of Sarbanes-Oxley. Companies are now required to expense stock given as compensation since it will have a dilutive effect on existing shareholders. Amazon issue billions of dollars in stock each year to its employees. Amazon also operates high cashflow but low margin businesses which make its net income very small. The company has emphasized free cash flow to investors for at least 20 years.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/stock-...

sseveran··on IRS budget cuts cost $34.3B in lost revenue from big business
The complexity is by design because congress for over 100 years has been creating laws one by one to give preferential treatment to various groups that they want to favor at the expense of others.

The consequence is that for anything moderately or more complex there is actually no correct answer on what your tax liability is. What is the value of an intangible asset? How do you define novelty for the R&D tax credit? There are thousands of intersecting rules that change your liability and many of those are up to interpretation.

sseveran··on Typical U.S. households don’t use most of their bandwidth
They do have installations of Fiber all the way into the box in your home. I don't know if that is uniform although I assume it would be. And of course they are over provisioned.
sseveran··on I've reproduced 130 research papers about “predicting the stock market”
A lot of papers use data from a few sources which are typically available to universities. Also a surprising (maybe not?) scrape data themselves. That being said as someone who was involved in paper replication and investigation there is not enough time to implement substantive papers in that time frame.
sseveran··on Nvidia CEO says Google is the only customer building its own silicon at scale
I agree with this a lot. When discussing this with someone who has been around ML/Optimization since the 70s he pointed out that it took 20 years for simple things like a Kalman filters to make their way out in to all the places in the world where they turned out to be useful. That is likely true of more modern ML technologies.
sseveran··on Madoff whistleblower Harry Markopolos calls GE a ‘bigger fraud than Enron’
That is literally what short sellers do. They find something they don't like, short it, and then try to drive the price down through publicity.
sseveran··on Netflix’s biggest bingers get hit with higher internet costs
Having only one ISP locally is typically either caused by market size or local regulation. Comcast does offer a national backbone and sells transit, cdn and other similar services through a subsidiary called Comcast Technology Solutions. The backbone at a national level has definitely received upgrades and they are advertising multiple terabits of capacity. Of course upgrading the transit network does not help if your local link is saturated, which is a problem in some areas.

If there is truly demand for unmetered internet someone will step in and fill the void. Some ISPs also use total transfer as a way to discriminate between business internet and residential internet.

sseveran··on Netflix’s biggest bingers get hit with higher internet costs
I would think that would mostly apply to DSL ISPs that are just using a telcos infrastructure. I suppose AT&T Fiber may be charged by AT&Ts backbone for traffic transiting their network or something like that. The major ISPs AT&T, Verizon, Comcast, etc... are building their own networks at least in part.
sseveran··on Netflix’s biggest bingers get hit with higher internet costs
I agree with what I think you are stating implicitly that bandwidth caps a blunt instrument. ISPs don't really have a lot of nobs to turn without setting off the network neutrality crowd. I wish there were more QoS nobs that could be turned to allow for lower latency and traffic prioritization as that would probably have some interesting applications.

Most ISPs are constantly upgrading parts of their network. Earlier this spring AT&T came through my complex and installed fiber in every apartment. Average broadband speeds have increased significantly over the last decade, and for that to have happened significant network upgrades would have to have taken place.

sseveran··on Netflix’s biggest bingers get hit with higher internet costs
Indeed there is. ISPs don't run a non-oversubscribed network. If they did your bill would be much higher. The costs are in building cables, maintaining cables, buying and maintaining local pop network equipment, building and maintaining whatever backbone they run, installing and maintaining network equipment in network meeting rooms where they connect with transit providers, etc...
sseveran··on AMD lands Google, Twitter as customers with newest server chip
AWS has already rolled out EPYC instances.

https://aws.amazon.com/ec2/amd/

sseveran··on Oil Needs to Fall Below $20 to Compete With Green Alternatives
Maybe this will come to pass but the market currently does not believe so, at least in the 10 year time frame. A 2030 Oil Futures Contract is priced right around $54 this morning. If we end up in a world where oil is no longer needed, yes some people will lose a bunch of money. But capital is also going to be freed up to invest in new things.

I don't think that anyone thinks the oil industry is the same as 50 years ago. I also don't think there is anyone (on the professional side at least) who does not know that oil companies, specifically the majors, trade with the price of oil. If these are actually unsafe stocks then there is a huge amount of money to be made by betting against them in a variety of ways. I actually don't think it will be as catastrophic as you think since in an such an environment a lot of oil companies in the US would go out of business, or be substantially reorganized. The prices of certain things would increase and maybe alternatives would arise.

If in 30 years we are going to need substantially less oil than we do today, in 10 years we should be starting to see that reflected in the price. So if you really believe that you should be selling long dated futures contracts, or shorting major oil company stocks, or shorting companies specializing in oil transportation, or probably a variety of other things.

sseveran··on Saudi airline cancels $6B Boeing order in favor of Airbus
I would fly on one. However since I fly mostly on delta its not likely that I will send up doing so.
sseveran··on Boeing engineer breaks silence on MAX 737
According to his LinkedIn he left his position at Boeing as a physicist in 2000.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/stan-sorscher-4573b57/

sseveran··on Maine Governor Signs Strictest Internet Protections in the U.S.
A team I worked on tried to buy browsing histories for specific sites about 10 years ago. NetZero was selling them from their free dialup customers, but the data was not that useful as the demographics of users was super skewed. All the ISPs that people tend to think are evil absolutely refused to even entertain the idea. One of them even lectured our PM on privacy and ethics for a few minutes before ending the call.

You can buy advertising profiles (or access to them) but this not really useful for things that are not directly advertising as it is super aggregated. In general the ISP data is less valuable since so much of the web has moved to using SSL.

I don't know much about how this has changed over the last couple of years but maybe someone else can chime in.

sseveran··on Paul Graham provides answer to spam emails (2002)
I don't think this would work in real life. When Bill Gates was proposing something similar, one of the engineers on the anti-spam team built an FPGA that would allow a spammer to solve such puzzles quickly enough to prevent spamming. His observation to me was that even though such a technique would work, botnets had eliminated the need for specialized hardware.
sseveran··on Boeing MAX production cut signals long grounding
That is unlikely. The A320neo family currently has an order backlog of over 6000. The only airline I know that is actually pursuing cancellation is Garuda. Given that the A320neo family is really the only competitor to the 737MAX family airlines don't really have anywhere else to go.

I also doubt customers will really vote with their feet given that the number one factor when booking a ticket is price. If some people choose not to fly on them it will create supply/demand imbalances in the market which would be interesting.

sseveran··on Boeing delays 737 MAX software fix delivery
You could pick an airline that does not use the plane you don't want to fly. In the US Delta does not fly the 737MAX nor does it have any on order. Delta has ordered 100 of the A321neos in place of the 737MAX.

https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/delta-orders-100-airbus-a321...

sseveran··on Fast LSTMs in PyTorch
Has anyone tried similar things with CompiledWrapper and XLA on Tensorflow? Is it even possible?
sseveran··on Tensorflow 2.0.0-Alpha0
Theoretically AMD has done at least some of the work via ROCm. I have not tried using this so I don't know how tested it is.

https://rocm.github.io/tensorflow.html

sseveran··on A380 cancellations by Qantas raise new questions about the superjumbo's future
There are indeed carriers that now provide much nicer bedding. I fly mostly Delta and United, and United has definetively the best bedding not the routes I fly (mostly to South America and occasionally Europe). In business class you get a blanket, a duvet, two pillows and you can request a mattress pad. Delta has a nice heavy blanket that I usually sleep on top of and a pillow.

Both carriers in the process of upgrading their seats in business class and adding a true premium economy product, not what delta calls comfort plus, which is really just more leg room at the front of the economy cabin. The true premium economy product is much closer to the premium economy that has been available on other carriers (emirates, cathay pacific, etc...) for a while and has better seats, food is served on plates, etc... It's not to far off from what one might get in a domestic first class.

sseveran··on Tensorflow 2.0 Preview
Python 3.7 Compatibility is being tracked here: https://github.com/tensorflow/tensorflow/issues/20517
sseveran··on Miami Woos New York Homebuyers Fleeing Over Tax Law
Yes. And this may go on for years after you have actually moved. I have a friend who moved out of NYC around 8 years ago and due to is income level is audited by NY every year. He now has a detailed system so he can account and prove his whereabouts in multiple ways every day of the year.
sseveran··on Boom Supersonic raises $100M, aims for 2019 test flights
There is another company working on a slightly supersonic private jet (Mach 1.4).

https://www.aerionsupersonic.com

So there may end up being other options.

sseveran··on Boom Supersonic raises $100M, aims for 2019 test flights
The will not be able to fly overland in most places while going supersonic for the foreseeable future. The real demand for this plane is going to be long haul business travel where flights are 10+ hours and those of us doing it regularly are already forking over 4 - 7K per ticket normally. Fortunately if you look at the world most of the cities you will want to fly to are basically on the coast, or a short distance inland.
sseveran··on A Full Hardware Guide to Deep Learning
I believe they are evgas. I have not seen throttling.
sseveran··on A Full Hardware Guide to Deep Learning
I have a box with 4 2080 ti's that are cooled with blowers and it has not been a problem. Temp's max out at 87C under full load.
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